Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#191

Post by soperj » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:49 AM UTC

GW150914 wrote: post #65

burlesona wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, I we may be at a point in time analogous to people in the early 2000's discussing the next revolution in PCs... and not really appreciating that the next revolution was going to be mobile. I think transportation is a lot more interesting than just cars - electric (and non-electric) cars will probably be part of the equation forever, but I suspect we're past peak car.

People have been saying that for a very long time, and every decade or two someone bets real money and loses horribly. I think the last time was Kamen thinking the Segway would change human transportation forever. Such visionaries tend to conveniently forget people who have families with kids, the price, and the fact that if their device can’t totally replace a car then it’s just an added expense many can’t afford.

And yet tons of people do it in europe with kids because the infrastructure exists.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#192

Post by nerdface » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:50 AM UTC

whatever1 wrote: post #188

Try to sell a 5 year old vehicle of let’s say 35k original price when it needs an $10k repair to get a new battery and dump the half tone of environmentally friendly junk. More importantly, convince the truck drivers with 150k miles per year that they will have to dispose their truck ever 2-3 years (1000 charges). Electric vehicles will take over when a battery breakthrough occurs, one that affects recharge time, wei…

I think once we get hot-swappable batteries then it'll really kick start the industry. The only problem is Li-Ion isn't recyclable or easily disposable.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#193

Post by WillPostForFood » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:50 AM UTC

jblow wrote: post #141

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps he's referring to the recommendations that Tesla has: " We recommend installing the Wall Connector with a power output to match the on-board charger of the vehicle, typically a 40, 60 or 90 amp circuit breaker. " https://www.tesla.com/support/home-charging-installation#wal... For comparison, the average home circuit is rated for 15 amps.

Last I checked, most homes in the USA had 220v 30A dryer outlets.

Our house has a 30A dryer outlet on the second floor. The house is maxed out on a 100A main line. To get another 40A or 50A breaker permitted, and installed would mean new main line, new meter, new main breaker, new breaker box. Bids have come in between $7,000 to $9,000. New homes with 200A service will mostly be ok, but older homes are often underserved electrically.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#194

Post by soperj » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:52 AM UTC

usaar333 wrote: post #180

HarryHirsch wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be progress if the kids could get their own electric scooter to go to school or soccer training. It would increase their social skills, it can't be good to be dependent on the parents for everything when cooped up in an exurban paradise.

Almost any kid that can use an electric scooter can already bicycle. A scooter is barely even faster than a bike on flat ground. A kid under the age of 8 (half the population of children) isn't going to be taking solo trips.

The do in the Netherlands. Almost all school age kids were going to school together when I was there.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#195

Post by colordrops » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:53 AM UTC

Marsymars wrote: post #181

rgbrenner wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they put in parking meters to collect money. Are you sure they wouldn't put in charging meters with the equivalent price of gas? That's worth maybe 15k mi/yr / 30mpg * $3 = $1500/yr for the average user (assuming they use it regularly.. which apartment users would). That seems like a pretty decent incentive.

Why would someone buy an electric car if they had to pay the equivalent price of gas to charge it?

It would in all likelihood still be cheaper than gas, but even if it weren't, electric cars are just that much better all around. After you've driven one for a while, you realize what a smelly complicated Rube Goldberg mess the internal combustion engine is.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#196

Post by Tuxer » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:53 AM UTC

whatever1 wrote: post #188

Try to sell a 5 year old vehicle of let’s say 35k original price when it needs an $10k repair to get a new battery and dump the half tone of environmentally friendly junk. More importantly, convince the truck drivers with 150k miles per year that they will have to dispose their truck ever 2-3 years (1000 charges). Electric vehicles will take over when a battery breakthrough occurs, one that affects recharge time, wei…

The first model Ss that have hit 10 years and 200k miles have shown an average of 3% battery capacity decrease.

Car batteries aren't phone batteries :)

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#197

Post by AnthonyMouse » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:54 AM UTC

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #74

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street" I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

> I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

You're thinking about this from the wrong way around. The people who buy the first electric cars mainly don't live in places they can't charge them, they live in single family homes where they can install a charging port.

That allows enough electric cars to accumulate that the lobby for installing charging ports on city streets can form and get a few of them installed. But with more charging ports you get more people buying electric cars and so the lobby for installing even more charging ports grows, until they're all over the place.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#198

Post by colordrops » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:54 AM UTC

stephengillie wrote: post #162

Zanni wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range will solve this issue. For 18 months I charged my Tesla at Whole Foods, Target, etc, at a paltry 20mph charge rate. When my commute was 40+ miles round trip, that meant I had to charge a couple of times a week for multiple hours. Very frustrating. But when I got my weekly miles under my max range (180 miles) and started using a near-ish high-speed charger, I'd just catch a movie once a week, and my car would be…

My Camry Hybrid can have 500+ miles of range recharged in a few minutes. That's the "killer app" that electric has to beat, one way or another. Spending multiple hours recharging is like driving 30mph on the freeway.

It's moving quickly. The Tesla Model 3 can charge over 300 miles in less than an hour. It's coming fast.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#199

Post by tonyedgecombe » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:54 AM UTC

kasey_junk wrote: post #88

newfocogi wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This situation is when employers providing chargers in company parking will become a notable work benefit.

I commute via public transit, my employer doesn’t offer parking.

That's another way to solve the problem.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#200

Post by chaostheory » Sun, Sep 02, 2018, 5:55 AM UTC

Marsymars wrote: post #181

rgbrenner wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they put in parking meters to collect money. Are you sure they wouldn't put in charging meters with the equivalent price of gas? That's worth maybe 15k mi/yr / 30mpg * $3 = $1500/yr for the average user (assuming they use it regularly.. which apartment users would). That seems like a pretty decent incentive.

Why would someone buy an electric car if they had to pay the equivalent price of gas to charge it?

Why? If they care about the environment. If they don't like wasting time at the gas station every week or more. If they don't like to deal with the horrible maintenance schedule of traditional engines vs having an oil change every 2 years.