Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace • Hacker News Board

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#91

Post by elbasti » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:41 PM UTC

radarsat1 wrote: post #79

packet_nerd wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock markets are basically prediction markets. Over the short term they are wildly inaccurate and are determined mostly by fear, greed, and crowd psychology. But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.

but are they accurate in a predictive sense, or only in their reaction to events? If the latter, which I think is more likely, it seems kind of a useless way to try and answer questions...

What does being "predictively inaccurate" mean in the context of the stock market? I assume that any time a stock jumps or falls is a symptom of inaccuracy--investors were surprised by some previously unknown--and unpriced--event.

So the low volatility of the stock market would indicate that it is actually predictively accurate, and that it is getting more so.

Then again, volatility is kind of a silly measure, because we also care about the frequency domain. The market could be very good at predicting the very short term or the very long term or both.

I wonder what a Fourier transform of the market would show?

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#92

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:50 PM UTC

djhworld wrote: post #63

IMTDb wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In direct democracy, you vote for what you want to happen. In a prediction market you vote for what you think will happen. The whole point is that a sufficiently large and diverse groupe of people is better at predicting the future using those system than an individual. Being able to correctly predicting the future can lead to better decisions.

Is there evidence of this working though, or is it the same concept as the 'wisdom of the crowds'

[deleted]

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#93

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:52 PM UTC

ramblerman wrote: post #85

packet_nerd wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock markets are basically prediction markets. Over the short term they are wildly inaccurate and are determined mostly by fear, greed, and crowd psychology. But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.

> But averaged over the long term they are very accurate. That doesn't make sense. Sure investors can be accurate in the long run, but the market itself just reflects the price today.

[deleted]

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#94

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:55 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #90

radarsat1 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but are they accurate in a predictive sense, or only in their reaction to events? If the latter, which I think is more likely, it seems kind of a useless way to try and answer questions...

The idea is that they create an incentive to discover all possible information that may effect the price of the stock in the future, and so the eventual market price ends up reflecting all that information. That in turn lets people use that price as a signal for how to allocate capital and make decisions in the future. It's not that they're totally accurate, it's that they're as accurate as it is possible to be . Why…

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Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#95

Post by DennisP » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:55 PM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #80

ordinaryradical wrote: post #62

Misplaced hype. “Today, Augur had 30 active users and 123 transactions in the last 24 hours. The market cap is roughly $269.2 million. That means that each active user is now worth roughly $9 million.” https://mobile.twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1027188396291235...

Yeah, and the only real crazy stuff that happened was people put up "death" or "assassination" contracts. Famous person X will die in 2018.... The problem with decentralized betting like this is who is the authority that determines who the winner is. External and honest oracles are hard.

Solving that problem is pretty much Augur's claim to fame. It's a combination of outcome reports by randomly-selected REP holders, possible disputes by bettors who post a bond and trigger a larger group of REP holders, and (after several escalating rounds of that) a potential fork of the whole thing on the theory that the version of REP that reports the truth will have more market value. (I think in that case REP holders have to choose which fork they'll migrate to.)

Whether this actually works over the long haul, we'll have to see, but it's a pretty interesting experiment.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#96

Post by silisili » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:59 PM UTC

IMTDb wrote: post #51

kingbirdy wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the difference between using prediction markets for politics and having a direct democracy?

In direct democracy, you vote for what you want to happen. In a prediction market you vote for what you think will happen. The whole point is that a sufficiently large and diverse groupe of people is better at predicting the future using those system than an individual. Being able to correctly predicting the future can lead to better decisions.

In theory. But from my experience, it's the opposite, and you can tell by the comments. I made a lot of money betting on Trump to win PA, FL, and POTUS on predictit. The only one I was unsure of was POTUS, but it was good odds so I took a gamble. The fact that FL, and to a lesser extent PA, had underdog odds meant people weren't betting logically. And the comments were akin to youtube comments.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#97

Post by MusaTheRedGuard » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 6:00 PM UTC

kornish wrote: post #86

MusaTheRedGuard wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please note that an "active user" is an active address( i.e one that has made a bet on the platform) in the past day. This doesn't take into account users that made a bet in the past( most bets have long term horizons, >4 to 5 months) or users that have a current position but aren't betting anymore or users simply observing the markets( looking at a front end like predictions.global) Also note that active users is pr…

What's the money currently at stake?

Total Money at Stake: $1,155,706.38

From predictions.global

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#98

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 6:01 PM UTC

kornish wrote: post #86

MusaTheRedGuard wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please note that an "active user" is an active address( i.e one that has made a bet on the platform) in the past day. This doesn't take into account users that made a bet in the past( most bets have long term horizons, >4 to 5 months) or users that have a current position but aren't betting anymore or users simply observing the markets( looking at a front end like predictions.global) Also note that active users is pr…

What's the money currently at stake?

[deleted]

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#99

Post by DennisP » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 6:02 PM UTC

the_cat_kittles wrote: post #53

DennisP wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm having a hard time seeing a way assassination markets are actually a good business model for assassins. If the prediction is tightly bounded (e.g. "Mr. X will be killed on Sept. 3, 2018") then you warn the victim. If the prediction is loosely bounded ("Mr. X will be killed within the next year") then the odds won't be nearly as good, since many non-assassins may bet in favor. The assassin will have to put up a la…

make a market, buy up all the yes shares when the price is low, kill the person, collect your reward.

Of course. My point is, that wouldn't actually work very well, for the reasons I mentioned above.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#100

Post by flyingfences » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 6:04 PM UTC

camjohnson26 wrote: post #59

the_cat_kittles wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

make a market, buy up all the yes shares when the price is low, kill the person, collect your reward.

Why would anyone take the other side of that bet?

Because they don't think you're gonna go out and kill someone.