What happens when your stake is big enough in an outcome, that you start pulling strings, legal or not ,for that outcome to happen.
The same (shady) things that happen today on non-crypto prediction markets (sports betting, options chains, etc.)
Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
71–80 of 180 posts
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#72Misplaced hype. “Today, Augur had 30 active users and 123 transactions in the last 24 hours. The market cap is roughly $269.2 million. That means that each active user is now worth roughly $9 million.” https://mobile.twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1027188396291235...
But if they scale that up to 1 billion users, their company will be worth 9000 trillion dollars. Sign me up!11!
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
In direct democracy, you vote for what you want to happen. In a prediction market you vote for what you think will happen. The whole point is that a sufficiently large and diverse groupe of people is better at predicting the future using those system than an individual. Being able to correctly predicting the future can lead to better decisions.
Isn't that going to turn into a voting system as soon as those predictions are used for making political decisions?
Then those who can make actual realistic predictions can simply predict the truth and exploit them
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#74Augur will probably be used for betting but really it's a prediction market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Prediction markets are an interesting tool for determining the most likely answer or result for almost any question. Some economists hope that we could use prediction markets to make difficult political decisions. Many companies already use them internally. Sadly there's only one prediction mar…
Have you seen the Good Judgment Project, founded by Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting? https://www.gjopen.com/ https://www.gjopen.com/questions/813-before-1-october-2018-w... https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/06/... It's karma-driven rather than wager-driven but seems fairly active.
I participate in Good Judgment, but I think it will be great to compare Augur's results on certain questions to GJP's results (whenever there is a question that overlaps at least).
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
In direct democracy, you vote for what you want to happen. In a prediction market you vote for what you think will happen. The whole point is that a sufficiently large and diverse groupe of people is better at predicting the future using those system than an individual. Being able to correctly predicting the future can lead to better decisions.
Is there evidence of this working though, or is it the same concept as the 'wisdom of the crowds'
Yes, both.
For context:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
In direct democracy, you vote for what you want to happen. In a prediction market you vote for what you think will happen. The whole point is that a sufficiently large and diverse groupe of people is better at predicting the future using those system than an individual. Being able to correctly predicting the future can lead to better decisions.
Is there evidence of this working though, or is it the same concept as the 'wisdom of the crowds'
The stock markets are basically prediction markets. Over the short term they are wildly inaccurate and are determined mostly by fear, greed, and crowd psychology. But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only problem is you don't know what the value of ETH will be 2-3 days in the future.
You could hedge the value of ETH in fiat markets, or you could wait until Augur supports betting with Dai.
How would you hedge the value of ETH? I'm not aware of a way to short it.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#78Augur will probably be used for betting but really it's a prediction market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Prediction markets are an interesting tool for determining the most likely answer or result for almost any question. Some economists hope that we could use prediction markets to make difficult political decisions. Many companies already use them internally. Sadly there's only one prediction mar…
The thing I don't like about prediction markets is the capped liquidity. I want to put my money where my mouth is but then find out there is only 1 share to buy in the market.
What I like about financial/forecasting crypto projects like Pareto Network is that there is no capped upside, and you can still determine the conviction some people have about an outcome
A close runner up is Numerai, given that you can tell the 'confidence' someone has, but the capped upside is arbitrarily capped, and the purpose of the project has nothing to do with censorship resistance and is beholden to the whims of the Numerai hedge fund.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there evidence of this working though, or is it the same concept as the 'wisdom of the crowds'
The stock markets are basically prediction markets. Over the short term they are wildly inaccurate and are determined mostly by fear, greed, and crowd psychology. But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.
but are they accurate in a predictive sense, or only in their reaction to events? If the latter, which I think is more likely, it seems kind of a useless way to try and answer questions...
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#80Misplaced hype. “Today, Augur had 30 active users and 123 transactions in the last 24 hours. The market cap is roughly $269.2 million. That means that each active user is now worth roughly $9 million.” https://mobile.twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1027188396291235...
Yeah, and the only real crazy stuff that happened was people put up "death" or "assassination" contracts. Famous person X will die in 2018.... The problem with decentralized betting like this is who is the authority that determines who the winner is. External and honest oracles are hard.