Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace • Hacker News Board

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#81

Post by MusaTheRedGuard » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:16 PM UTC

sorokod wrote: post #39

camjohnson26 wrote: post #18

The main problem on Augur right now is volume. Only a few markets have orders to trade against, and it seems like the cryptocurrency markets are the most actively used. I tried to use the platform to make a small bet against Tesla, but obviously you need someone to take the other side of the bet. Still a very cool platform. A lot of people use predictions.global to get a birds eye view of the markets. https://predict…

The main problem on Augur right now is volume I think that the relevant term is liquidity

See this reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/Augur/comments/97di7x/is_there_a_wa...

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#82

Post by adam » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:19 PM UTC

busterarm wrote: post #2

Hard pass. Blockchain and Gambling still don't really go together yet. Moreover, I wouldn't touch anything intersecting this space that doesn't have Rick Dudley directly involved. Not only does he have a 15 year headstart working on some of these problems, but he also owns patents on provably fair online gaming systems. The site acts like the main challenges are legal when really they're technical.

Just wrote a blog post about Augur and its future challenges: https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/thoughts-on-augur

I know - just another armchair hack, but I've been running a company that builds/runs prediction markets inside corporations for the past 12 years...

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#83

Post by somebodythere » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:19 PM UTC

theptip wrote: post #77

somebodythere wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could hedge the value of ETH in fiat markets, or you could wait until Augur supports betting with Dai.

How would you hedge the value of ETH? I'm not aware of a way to short it.

You should be able to do it on BitMEX. Shorting CBOE Bitcoin futures could also get you part way there.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#84

Post by MusaTheRedGuard » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:24 PM UTC

briatx wrote: post #43

Augur is down to https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/08/20/dapps-userbase-dr...

Please note that an "active user" is an active address( i.e one that has made a bet on the platform) in the past day.

This doesn't take into account users that made a bet in the past( most bets have long term horizons, >4 to 5 months) or users that have a current position but aren't betting anymore or users simply observing the markets( looking at a front end like predictions.global)

Also note that active users is probably not a great metric for this application, as it's not a consumer app/ time sink thing.

Money at stake is much a better metric

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#85

Post by ramblerman » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:28 PM UTC

packet_nerd wrote: post #76

djhworld wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there evidence of this working though, or is it the same concept as the 'wisdom of the crowds'

The stock markets are basically prediction markets. Over the short term they are wildly inaccurate and are determined mostly by fear, greed, and crowd psychology. But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.

> But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.

That doesn't make sense. Sure investors can be accurate in the long run, but the market itself just reflects the price today.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#86

Post by kornish » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:32 PM UTC

MusaTheRedGuard wrote: post #84

briatx wrote: post #43

Augur is down to https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/08/20/dapps-userbase-dr...

Please note that an "active user" is an active address( i.e one that has made a bet on the platform) in the past day. This doesn't take into account users that made a bet in the past( most bets have long term horizons, >4 to 5 months) or users that have a current position but aren't betting anymore or users simply observing the markets( looking at a front end like predictions.global) Also note that active users is pr…

What's the money currently at stake?

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#87

Post by MusaTheRedGuard » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:32 PM UTC

ordinaryradical wrote: post #62

Misplaced hype. “Today, Augur had 30 active users and 123 transactions in the last 24 hours. The market cap is roughly $269.2 million. That means that each active user is now worth roughly $9 million.” https://mobile.twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1027188396291235...

Sigh.

Copying my comment from below:

Please note that an "active user" is an active address( i.e one that has made a bet on the platform) in the past day. This doesn't take into account users that made a bet in the past( most bets have long term horizons, >4 to 5 months) or users that have a current position but aren't betting anymore or users simply observing the markets( looking at a front end like predictions.global)

Also note that active users is probably not a great metric for this application, as it's not a consumer app/ time sink thing.

Money at stake is much a better metric

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#88

Post by drdeca » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:35 PM UTC

gammateam wrote: post #78

hedgew wrote: post #7

Augur will probably be used for betting but really it's a prediction market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Prediction markets are an interesting tool for determining the most likely answer or result for almost any question. Some economists hope that we could use prediction markets to make difficult political decisions. Many companies already use them internally. Sadly there's only one prediction mar…

The thing I don't like about prediction markets is the capped liquidity. I want to put my money where my mouth is but then find out there is only 1 share to buy in the market. What I like about financial/forecasting crypto projects like Pareto Network is that there is no capped upside, and you can still determine the conviction some people have about an outcome A close runner up is Numerai, given that you can tell th…

I'm confused. With Augur, "complete sets" can, aiui, be created by anyone, so I don't see why there would be a problem with only one share being available?

Unless I guess if you want to make sure the trade goes through immediately?

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#89

Post by GreenPlastic » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:37 PM UTC

djhworld wrote: post #63

IMTDb wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In direct democracy, you vote for what you want to happen. In a prediction market you vote for what you think will happen. The whole point is that a sufficiently large and diverse groupe of people is better at predicting the future using those system than an individual. Being able to correctly predicting the future can lead to better decisions.

Is there evidence of this working though, or is it the same concept as the 'wisdom of the crowds'

Yes, it works very well but not for the 'wisdom of the crowds' effect. It works because the people with the most information and best models sharpen up the price. Over time, the sharpest bettors grow their bankrolls or capital exponentially and place larger bets and have a disproportionate weight on the markets and their opinions matter more, making markets more efficient.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#90

Post by nostrademons » Mon, Aug 20, 2018, 5:38 PM UTC

radarsat1 wrote: post #79

packet_nerd wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock markets are basically prediction markets. Over the short term they are wildly inaccurate and are determined mostly by fear, greed, and crowd psychology. But averaged over the long term they are very accurate.

but are they accurate in a predictive sense, or only in their reaction to events? If the latter, which I think is more likely, it seems kind of a useless way to try and answer questions...

The idea is that they create an incentive to discover all possible information that may effect the price of the stock in the future, and so the eventual market price ends up reflecting all that information. That in turn lets people use that price as a signal for how to allocate capital and make decisions in the future.

It's not that they're totally accurate, it's that they're as accurate as it is possible to be. Why? Because if you knew of a better way to determine the truth, you would do so, trade on that information, bump up (or down, if shorting) the price to reflect that information, and take your profits so you could do so again. Conversely, if you're just trading randomly, somebody with better information will take all your money and you won't be able to continue trading.

The price that's reflected in a market could be considered residual uncertainty that nobody knows, i.e. if the prediction market for "Will Donald Trump win the 2020 election ?" sells at $0.60 on the $1.00, it means that after all the market participants have crunched their models, aggregated their polls, gone out and canvassed neighborhoods, ran their economic analyses, spoken to campaign insiders, and whatever else they can do, the equilibrium price assumes he has a 60% chance of winning. You don't have to actually perform all those information-gathering tasks to figure this out, you can assume that other people have been incentivized to do so and their results are now reflected in the price.