Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#351

Post by leesec » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 7:46 PM UTC

LaGrange wrote: post #258

tomhoward wrote: post #37

But, he added, “if you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now.” I think this hits at the crux of the issue around the performance/behaviour of Musk and other leaders of hugely ambitious companies. And I think it highlights the importance of thinking about what kinds of people it will take to lead the…

> Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and Space Yes, while SpaceX has _something_ going for it — though not as much as people like to think, Tesla isn't anything to write home about. Nissan is the market leader in electric vehicles, not Tesla. Tesla survives only because the cult status means people are willing to wait more than they otherwise would. SpaceX does some cool things - as a rocket enthu…

This comment is so insane to me.

How can you say Tesla isn't anything to write home about when, according to many many credible automotive critics, they've invented several of the best cars of all time?

Love or hate Musk sure, but it's crazy to deny his accomplishments.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#352

Post by l33tbro » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 9:34 PM UTC

Fnoord wrote: post #160

l33tbro wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>classic narcissism behaviour ... I've run out of fingers to count how many times over the last few months I've see keyboard psychiatrists apply 'narcissism' as a catch-all for any kind of outlier behaviours. I'm no Musk fanboy, but the narcissism trope feels particularly way off in his case.

Mind you, I didn't call him a narcissist. I said its classic narcissism behaviour. There's a subtle nuance between those two. There's no further psychoanalysis either. I want to be a Musk fanboy. I am very much into the things he's innovating. I care about those things (solar power, electric vehicles, (self-)sustainability in general, though SpaceX not so much). He's become a if not the face of those ideals I find im…

I agree. However, I also realise that in being the 'face' of these things that he is truly just that: a mere face, a phantom, an archetype in the collective psyche. Behind all this is a flawed human (like the rest of us) who is trying to reconcile his place as the eco-ubermensch and regular family guy.

I actually didn't feel at all disappointed by the tweet. I feel disappointed by people's lack of concern for a guy who's fighting the good fight who is clearly going through something awful.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#353

Post by nightski » Fri, Aug 17, 2018, 10:31 PM UTC

tomp wrote: post #121

skrebbel wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a hidden false dichotomy there: That Tesla and Space X couldn't exist / succeed without Musk working his employees and himself into a burnout. I'm not sure that that is true. The same Musk with the same employees could've perfectly well done these companies at a sane pace - maybe even without losing speed in the grand scheme of things given that less stuff would've gone wrong.

> That Tesla and Space X couldn't exist / succeed without Musk working his employees and himself into a burnout Well does another SpaceX/Tesla exist? I don't think so. So it's very possible that that is true. Maybe the trait to start impossible companies and to work impossible hours is actually the same trait.

When the requirement to entry is being a billionaire that's not really a fair assessment imo.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#354

Post by mandeepj » Sat, Aug 18, 2018, 12:18 AM UTC

shriver wrote: post #107

> Efforts are underway to find a No. 2 executive to help take some of the pressure off Mr. Musk, people briefed on the search said. I don't know how anyone could read this and not realise that's a direct search for a replacement CEO. With the best will in the world, Musk has a dozen people at Tesla who COULD pick up some of the slack, the issue isn't not having the right people, the issue is that he won't hand anythi…

> he won't hand anything off

Really? You have a real example of SpaceX and see how things are running there. They have a very competent COO running the things smoothly there.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#355

Post by mattmaroon » Sat, Aug 18, 2018, 12:41 AM UTC

akmiller wrote: post #336

mattmaroon wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would consider data to be an argument in favor of the big three. Tesla only sells about 100000 cars a year. Ford's top-selling model, the F-series, is almost eight times that. I'm assuming you mean some data that Tesla is currently collecting that Ford cannot, but it would be a matter of not much money for them to do so. They can add whatever sensors they need in the next year's F150 and within a few months have mo…

True, but it is not only the data. Even if it was why aren't the big 3 doing this already? Tesla is a technology company more-so than a car company. They employ the engineers focusing on machine learning and gathering the right data to support that. This would be a brand new area for Ford, Chevy, etc... I'm guessing. Not that they couldn't ramp up, but I don't think it would be as easy as you seem to suggest. Walmart…

I don't think the automakers are set in their ways. Chevy acquired Cruise for a billion dollars. Waymo has partnered with Fiat Chrysler. Ford's committed $4 billion over the next few years.

Maybe Tesla's ahead of some of them. (I'm not sure they're ahead of Waymo.) But they've still not learned how to make an affordable car at scale. They're having a hard time getting to a $35k car, and estimates put the lowest Model 3 at $41k to produce. Average American car price, including trucks, is below $34k, and those are being sold at a profit.

And again, all of this is not to say that Tesla won't succeed. They probably will. What they've done is impressive. I just think there's a very good chance that they're on a long, difficult, slow ramp up to being a major car company, in which case their current share price will have been a bad investment.

Edit: also, I left out another huge risk factor: Their CEO. They have a visionary leader who is clearly overextended and shows signs of fraying to the point where he's possibly breaking laws over Twitter.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#356

Post by Gatsky » Sat, Aug 18, 2018, 1:11 AM UTC

Sangermaine wrote: post #250

Gatsky wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I agree. Don’t understand why people are so pissed off by Musk, but seem happy to give a free ride to any number of cut and dried vile megarich dynasties like the Koch brothers or the crown prince of Saudi Arabia or whichever asshole owns Elsevier. Consider that these villains are quite literally destroying the planet, impeding scientific progress and manipulating societies for their personal profit.

You may be surprised to learn that the Koch Bros. and the Saudis do, in fact, receive enormous amounts of criticism for their behavior. But I think with Musk the answer is that people respond extra harshly to perceive hypocrisy. The Kochs are almost cartoon corporate arch-villains and the Saudis are brutal theocrats. No one has any illusions that they are good people trying to help the world. Musk, however, has been…

The Kochs/Saudi’s actually receive very little criticism in tech circles. In any case, if your point is that they are actually bad, and Musk is good but a hypocrite at times, then are we not agreeing that the level of criticism he receives is unjustified?

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#357

Post by dragonwriter » Sat, Aug 18, 2018, 1:22 AM UTC

Gatsky wrote: post #356

Sangermaine wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be surprised to learn that the Koch Bros. and the Saudis do, in fact, receive enormous amounts of criticism for their behavior. But I think with Musk the answer is that people respond extra harshly to perceive hypocrisy. The Kochs are almost cartoon corporate arch-villains and the Saudis are brutal theocrats. No one has any illusions that they are good people trying to help the world. Musk, however, has been…

The Kochs/Saudi’s actually receive very little criticism in tech circles. In any case, if your point is that they are actually bad, and Musk is good but a hypocrite at times, then are we not agreeing that the level of criticism he receives is unjustified?

> The Kochs/Saudi’s actually receive very little criticism in tech circles

They get very little tech-circle-specific criticism, because that's not where they operate (and because they have little in the way of tech-specific cult of personality, to provoke domain specific response expressing the general criticism.)

But they get a lot of criticism from non-tech-specific groups that themselves substantially overlap tech circles.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#358

Post by chadmeister » Sat, Aug 18, 2018, 1:38 AM UTC

cepth wrote: post #342

chadmeister wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this IPO could happen sooner than you think. The Saudis seem to have quite a bit of influence on the current US presidential administration and I wouldn't be surprised if the Saudis played a role in the decision to sanction Venezuela, who was at the time was the #1 oil exporter in the world, and the decision to sanction Iran, another huge oil exporter. They've recently coordinated oil supply cuts through OPEC…

Nothing is impossible, so sure it's not impossible I'm wrong, and Aramco goes public soon. Given that they've already signaled that it won't happen this year, you do wonder why 2 years on there's no meaningful progress. They've announced the underwriting banks, but there's been no roadshow, no news of meetings with institutional investors. I still think it's quite unlikely you could float a $100 billion IPO today. IP…

Hey that was a very thoughtful response! You make some very good points. I always appreciate learning something new, thank you.

And you're right it's MBS, I couldn't quite remember

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#359

Post by Gatsky » Sat, Aug 18, 2018, 2:31 AM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #357

Gatsky wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Kochs/Saudi’s actually receive very little criticism in tech circles. In any case, if your point is that they are actually bad, and Musk is good but a hypocrite at times, then are we not agreeing that the level of criticism he receives is unjustified?

> The Kochs/Saudi’s actually receive very little criticism in tech circles They get very little tech-circle-specific criticism, because that's not where they operate (and because they have little in the way of tech-specific cult of personality, to provoke domain specific response expressing the general criticism.) But they get a lot of criticism from non-tech-specific groups that themselves substantially overlap tech…

Thanks for the ELI5. But since I am commenting on HN, implicitly my point is about the unmoored proportionality of criticism in the tech community.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#360

Post by LaGrange » Sat, Aug 18, 2018, 3:01 AM UTC

leesec wrote: post #351

LaGrange wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and Space Yes, while SpaceX has _something_ going for it — though not as much as people like to think, Tesla isn't anything to write home about. Nissan is the market leader in electric vehicles, not Tesla. Tesla survives only because the cult status means people are willing to wait more than they otherwise would. SpaceX does some cool things - as a rocket enthu…

This comment is so insane to me. How can you say Tesla isn't anything to write home about when, according to many many credible automotive critics, they've invented several of the best cars of all time? Love or hate Musk sure, but it's crazy to deny his accomplishments.

I think calling cars that randomly catch fire and drive into walls "best" says more about the critics than the cars.