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Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

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Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#142
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they lose less than 30% of their installs, but are making 30% more on each IAP, they're rolling profit. Bear in mind, most users won't even buy stuff, so the question is... will they lose a lot of paying customers, and my guess for that is no. Also, Tim Sweeney is an outspoken critic of the app store model, so it's unsurprising to see Epic go this way where they can.

sounds like he's a hypocrite also, as his game is on IOS and even available there first.

I wouldn't call that hypocritical. He can hate the model because of his first hand experience with it. He'd also be a fool to turn down the iOS market.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#143
post #67

The framing of this article feels weird to me. Google offers a service (distribution), and it just so happens Fortnite doesn't need it. It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how. A better way would be "Fortnite is big enough to bypass Google and still make $180MM", rather than acting like this is Google's fault. I mean, the fact that phon…

That's just the art of writing headlines. How else do they generate online conversation except by stating it in a obviously flawed way provoking people like you to point out the flaw and people with a penchant for "charity" to come to their defense, and so on and so forth? Why are we still falling for this crap?

I have never thought about it like this. Thanks and please keep pointing it out!

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#144

I can't imagine that 100% of the people interested in fortnite for android are willing to sideload the apk. I would be surprised if this wasn't having a net-negative impact on the total number of android users. I wonder if this is just to avoid paying a percentage on in-app purchases? What else could it be?

> I can't imagine that 100% of the people interested in fortnite for android are willing to sideload the apk.

As long as more than 70% are, it's a net gain for Epic.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#145
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is this any more or less insane than every console maker getting a cut of every game distributed either physically or digitally? For you to sell a physical game disk, you still have to have a cryptographic signature issued by the console maker.

Who's saying that's a good thing for a healthy free market?

It’s not but it’s been that way since the first Atari game system came out.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The concept of a platform business is an insane racket.

Google and Apple have created and invested in their platforms - it’s not insane for them to make profit from them.

They've created an artificial need for the platforms by closing their systems. Open systems don't require these kinds of platforms. I can install whatever I want on my PC and I like it that way.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#147
post #130

I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, I am still a big fan of Android´s openess (at least compared to the walled garden that is iOS) and I think it should the right of every company or developer to NOT use a closed platform to distribute its app. However on the other hand, this move by Epic sets a dangerous precedent: Factually, Google get´s economically punished for being more open than Apple. This does…

No. Neither of the companies "deserve" anything.

If I bought a phone, it is my phone, and I am free to do what I want with it, including installing software that these companies don't approve of.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#148

The framing of this article feels weird to me. Google offers a service (distribution), and it just so happens Fortnite doesn't need it. It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how. A better way would be "Fortnite is big enough to bypass Google and still make $180MM", rather than acting like this is Google's fault. I mean, the fact that phon…

> It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how. Like Snapchat, this may be a case where deliberately counterintuitive behavior may actually help , since sideloading will now become "cool" for the teenagers/millennials it targets.

It will probably introduce some people to die loading and, by disabling the prevention, maybe enable some malware APKs to be accidentally installed.

Not that much interesting software is available from outside the Play Store. Only OGYoutube comes to my mind here.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's up there with federal income tax.

Companies pay taxes on profits, not on revenue. Google takes 30% cut of the revenue. That's quite a difference.

sure, as a private company I have a running budget based on the profits of my application. 30% of that revenue which I will never get will be going to another company which has a record of paying little to no taxes.

Now, how do you think the government makes up the difference in the tax loop holes? By raising taxes on companies like mine and restricting/regulating on how I structure my profits/income so that it can stay in business. So indirectly 30% off the revenue is affecting my tax situation with the federal government.

Again, 30% is on par with federal income tax.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was just trying to avoid a large and obvious enumeration in my comment. I assumed we all knew things like browser engine, development/compilation hardware, app store choice, software installation method, system OS choice, runtime eval approach (e.g. JIT), phone/sms app choice, keyboard choice, etc, etc are not subject to choice and in most cases competition is actively prevented. I suppose my assumption was wrong t…

You can develop on other platforms - see Xamarin You want to be able to install another OS on an iPhone? Unless you happen to have an Android phone that has hardware that is supported by one of the forks - good luck with that. Yes you can use scripting languages with iOS apps, games do it all of the time. Alternate voip apps integrate well with the native iOS dialer. For instance a call using Skype looks just like a…

Sigh. My comment has nothing to do with what you can do elsewhere. I was responding specifically to the false claim "aren't doing anything to prevent competition" which is untrue, they are doing things.
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