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Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

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Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#101

Post by dmode »

pseudocook wrote: post #90
dmode wrote: post #66

Tesla only sold 104 Roadstars in 2011. Now they are on track to sell 250,000 Model S, X, and 3 combined in 2018. The scale of Tesla's accomplishment is truly under appreciated. It becomes even more impressive when you realize that this is an electric car, sold by Tesla owned stores, supported by over a thousand Superchargers. Amazing !!

I wonder how many of those are Model S. I hope that Model S is not suffering any problems so that Model 3 and Model X can go forward. I am only person in my circle of friends interested in Model S as opposed to the other two models. Anecdotally, I lost count of the number of Model 3's I see on a daily basis in Bay Area.

Model S and X combined should be about 100K.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#102

Post by iainmerrick »

javagram wrote: post #89
iainmerrick wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tangential question: why do people prefer sedans over hatchbacks? Hatchbacks seem a lot more practical than sedans with no obvious downside. I can see people preferring the looks of one or the other, but neither is objectively prettier.

Sedans are a bit easier to cool/warm due to less air volume. The trunk also feels more secure for storage of valuables than leaving them exposed in a glass hatchback’s rear. Style and price also play into it I think but even cheap hatchbacks like the Ford Fiesta don’t sell that well in the US. In general people looking for a practical car in the US are often buying a crossover, SUV, or pickup truck.

Hmm, those are interesting points, although it seems like both can be addressed with a simple cover over the trunk.

I think you’re right that SUVs and crossovers are taking over, from both sedans and traditional hatchbacks.

It must just be fashion, as SUVs don’t have any real advantage -- most people never do any off-roading or haul large sports equipment, and most “SUVs” wouldn’t be up to the job anyway.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#103

Post by nolok »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #39
salimmadjd wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m reading it as “we aim” sounds like a goal. They’re expecting Expecting to produce 50-55k Model 3s in Q3 Which falls below the 5000/week

It's the difference between max and average

For a company that has consistently been FAR below their production target, that's the difference between a press marketing material and reality.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#104

Post by erk__ »

MrRadar wrote: post #77
bmelton wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but why not a standard looking body instead of some weird buggy space-age thing? I think they're still counting on the signaling. It's said that the Prius was bought by so many in large part because it looked so goofy, in that it didn't look like anything else, so everybody knew it was a Prius, which by proxy meant that you were driving green. Tesla shook that up, but styling still remains something withheld for th…

Tesla has the ability to make "normal"-looking cars because the brand itself signals the owner is environmentally-conscious. The "traditional" automakers could probably get away with the same thing if they had exclusively-electric sub-brands (GM should bring back Saturn as an EV-exclusive brand, IMO).

Tesla may be "normal" looking where you come from but the are pretty easy to spot here because they are wider than pretty much every other car.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#105

Post by radicalbyte »

rconti wrote: post #63
secabeen wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> finished goods vehicle inventory of $579 million as a result of the timing of deliveries. AKA, we delayed delivering a lot of cars to not trigger the tax credit expiration in Q2.

Exactly. And this is a 'problem' they'll never again face, because now the clock is ticking. Of course, it's been replaced with the 'problem' of selling incremental Model 3s as the effective price goes up quarter by quarter in the near term, but the issue has ALWAYS been whether they'll be able to sustain demand and sales as the vehicle goes through pent-up demand and then has to rely on incremental sales, year after…

There's a massive amount of demand here in Europe: the car is the right size, the right price qualifies for all of the tax benefits. They also have 0 competition. I expect there to be a waiting list for the next couple of years unless they keep boosting production..

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#106

Post by tedunangst »

sp332 wrote: post #60
quest88 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is it now?

Well that depends on how fast you think they're selling cars right now or in the near future. And how much money they make on each model. Just guess, basically.

What if I guess they aren't making enough profit or selling enough cars to make the runway calculations moot?

I mean, people basically said the same about Groupon. "Once they become profitable the losses won't matter." Except Groupon hardly turned out to be the juggernaut that rewrote how commerce is done.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#107

Post by ProfessorLayton »

secabeen wrote: post #30
Alex3917 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even that phaseout will probably result in a lot of cancellations from people who have been on the waiting list for several months already but who haven't taken delivery by the end of the year. Especially for the orders at the lower end of the price spectrum, which haven't even started shipping yet. Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact sa…

> Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact same car. It's 10% more at most, and they are making it pretty clear now that the Short Range model will not be available before January 2019. Even then, many people can't even realize the entirety of a $7,500 tax credit. A single person needs $60k in income to generate $7,500 in taxes due after the…

"The average new car buyer is now 51.7 years old and earns about $80,000 per year" [1]

In a study from 2003 the new car buyer income was $69,875 [2] which is $96,905.51 in 2018 dollars [3]

[1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20150804/RETAIL03/150809938/...

[2] https://www.bls.gov/cex/anthology/csxanth8.pdf

[3] https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=69%2C875&year1...

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#108

Post by djrogers »

giobox wrote: post #53
zjaffee wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because battery technology isn't where it needs to be yet, where Tesla is absolutely winning when it comes to this. Honda released their plug in Honda Clarity, but it only has a range of 89 miles.

This simply isn't true - the Chevrolet Bolt has an EPA-estimate 238 mile range, with many reviewers getting close to 300. Pretty much what you get in a base Model 3. What's more you can actually walk into a dealership and buy a Bolt today, good luck trying that with a Model 3. It also costs almost 15 grand less than the cheapest Model 3 Tesla is currently shipping, given they still don't have a release date for the m…

There are a lot of automotive buying decisions where you can save $15k by purchasing a smaller, slower, uglier car. It’s not a choice people always make.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#109

Post by awaythrowit »

iainmerrick wrote: post #73
mikepavone wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Given that Ford is largely abandoning sedans, it would seem that they're not particularly popular anymore. The Leaf and Bolt aren't all that weird looking for hatchbacks. Original Leaf had some weird-ish features (like the headlights), but mostly had a similar profile to the Nissan Versa hatchback. The new 2018 mod…

Tangential question: why do people prefer sedans over hatchbacks? Hatchbacks seem a lot more practical than sedans with no obvious downside. I can see people preferring the looks of one or the other, but neither is objectively prettier.

Perhaps hatchback is seen as teenager's or poor person's car

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#110

Post by quest88 »

brian-armstrong wrote: post #91

Buying a car that's more than, say, $30,000 is such a laughably poor decision. Cars depreciate rapidly unlike real estate where you actually maintain some equity. If you're in your 20s and looking to pump your new RSU wealth into something, almost anything is a better choice than an expensive car.

But if you've already pumped your new RSUs into investments and have a lot of money saved up, go for it! It's fun!
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