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Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

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Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#71

Post by rconti »

secabeen wrote: post #38
bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

> Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? Yes, when comparing to other compact luxury sedans such as the BMW 3-series and the M-B C-Class, yes, they are at 50% market share. The question becomes, are they just selling cars to people who would have bought a car in that class, or are…

Yes, but it's also selling to a somewhat-rabid list of reservation holders against a BMW 3 series that is around 3 or 4 years into its model cycle, a not-as-attractive-as-previous-generation C class that's 2+ years into its model cycle... these things are never apples to apples but its particularly bad when you have a backlog of people champing at the bit to buy your car.

And all for a $7500+ discount over 'true' MSRP which will begin to evaporate over the coming months (which was one reason we jumped on the 3 when we did, rather than waiting).

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#72

Post by [deleted] »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #68
giobox wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This simply isn't true - the Chevrolet Bolt has an EPA-estimate 238 mile range, with many reviewers getting close to 300. Pretty much what you get in a base Model 3. What's more you can actually walk into a dealership and buy a Bolt today, good luck trying that with a Model 3. It also costs almost 15 grand less than the cheapest Model 3 Tesla is currently shipping, given they still don't have a release date for the m…

Supercharger network, OTA updates, superior driver assist system, superior warranty. I’d wait for a Model 3 instead of buying a Bolt off the lot. Range isn’t everything.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#73

Post by iainmerrick »

mikepavone wrote: post #67
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

> Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Given that Ford is largely abandoning sedans, it would seem that they're not particularly popular anymore. The Leaf and Bolt aren't all that weird looking for hatchbacks. Original Leaf had some weird-ish features (like the headlights), but mostly had a similar profile to the Nissan Versa hatchback. The new 2018 mod…

Tangential question: why do people prefer sedans over hatchbacks?

Hatchbacks seem a lot more practical than sedans with no obvious downside. I can see people preferring the looks of one or the other, but neither is objectively prettier.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#75

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sp332 wrote: post #16
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their burn rate varies dramatically as they start shipping new models of cars Sure, you have to build new tools, buy material, hire factory workers--all before you've sold your first vehicle. This is a known cash curve. The purpose of calculating a runway is to understand "we have to start selling lots of cars within 7 months, or else sell more debt or stock."

Right, but since they did just start selling a lot of cars, the runway calculation is now moot.

> since they did just start selling a lot of cars, the runway calculation is now moot

These runway calculations are only moot once Tesla is cash flow positive.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#76

Post by JumpCrisscross »

bmelton wrote: post #40
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

> but why not a standard looking body instead of some weird buggy space-age thing? I think they're still counting on the signaling. It's said that the Prius was bought by so many in large part because it looked so goofy, in that it didn't look like anything else, so everybody knew it was a Prius, which by proxy meant that you were driving green. Tesla shook that up, but styling still remains something withheld for th…

> it seems likely that they'd uglify it somewhat and withhold the better design for a more expensive vehicle

Source? Many flashy design elements are expensive to fabricate.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#77

Post by MrRadar »

bmelton wrote: post #40
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

> but why not a standard looking body instead of some weird buggy space-age thing? I think they're still counting on the signaling. It's said that the Prius was bought by so many in large part because it looked so goofy, in that it didn't look like anything else, so everybody knew it was a Prius, which by proxy meant that you were driving green. Tesla shook that up, but styling still remains something withheld for th…

Tesla has the ability to make "normal"-looking cars because the brand itself signals the owner is environmentally-conscious. The "traditional" automakers could probably get away with the same thing if they had exclusively-electric sub-brands (GM should bring back Saturn as an EV-exclusive brand, IMO).

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#78

Post by avar »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Hyundai makes something similar to an electric Honda Civic, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric: https://www.hyundaiusa.com/ioniq-electric/index.aspx

It's "affordable" at $30k, but it has 1/2 the range of the Model 3 at around 130 miles, which I think tells you a lot. This technology is still at a price point where you need to make significant trade-offs between range and price. A new Honda Civic is something like $20k by comparison, and without the range anxiety.

Still, I see a lot more of the these Hyundai Ioniqs here in Amsterdam after they were released, particularly as workhorse vehicles like local taxis. Part of that's government incentives to use electric vehicles, European customers having lower range requirements, and that gas is still practically given away for free in the US compared to what it costs in the EU.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#79

Post by acover »

iainmerrick wrote: post #73
mikepavone wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Given that Ford is largely abandoning sedans, it would seem that they're not particularly popular anymore. The Leaf and Bolt aren't all that weird looking for hatchbacks. Original Leaf had some weird-ish features (like the headlights), but mostly had a similar profile to the Nissan Versa hatchback. The new 2018 mod…

Tangential question: why do people prefer sedans over hatchbacks? Hatchbacks seem a lot more practical than sedans with no obvious downside. I can see people preferring the looks of one or the other, but neither is objectively prettier.

Hatchbacks cost more

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#80

Post by chaostheory »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

> I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars.

It looks better than the Bolt or Leaf

https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/volt-plug-in-hybrid

EV range is about 55 miles Gas range is about 250 miles

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