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China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

washingtonpost.com

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Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#41

Post by mpweiher »

forgotagain95 wrote: post #32
jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

I am curious who is the analog to the french aristocrats. With 95% of the tax burdened by those earning more than $50k, it is crucial to define this. The median income is roughly about this value as well, so basically nearly all the tax is burdened by the top 50% earning populace. If you raise the bar further ($200k), its still nearly 60% of the taxes being paid by 5-10% of the populace. So I am not sure I buy that t…

The 95% / 20% is just income tax. Total tax burden is quite different considering at least payroll taxes and the fact that a lot of the top earners simply do not pay income tax at all.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#42

Post by sykhic »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #24
sykhic wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan does not have the capability to compete with Chinese naval power. Why do you think it’s unlikely that the US will go down? What time frame are you attributing this unlikelihood to take place in? I’m assuming you mean in the next few decades and not meaning a much larger time frame. I have no expertise but it appears from my perspective that the US is in a state of imperial decline. I think this will accelerate…

There are definitely signs of decline; I'm with you there. The problem is that there have been signs of decline before - leading up to the Civil War, the Great Depression, Vietnam. The question is, is this negative derivative at the moment the start of the Big Decline, or is it just a temporary downtrend? I also fear that it's the start of the Big Decline, but I'm far from certain of that...

From my perspective the decline has been going on since the end of the Reagan administration. There are a number of reasons for my belief but I think it has been steadily going on for 30 years now. Prior the Civil War Alexis de Tocqueville famously predicted the rise of America. After the war our dominance in the Western Hemisphere was solidified and at the beginning of the 20th century it was clear that resource rich America with its vast land mass was able to achieve scales of economy that no other nation could match. It was clear that we were still a rising power at that time.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#43

Post by lliamander »

okal wrote: post #28
eunoia wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think "China sucks for Chinese people", please explain why you also seem to believe they would treat others any better than their own?

They don't treat other people better. Chinese foreign policy is generally indifferent to the politics of their trade partners. China doesn't intervene, for better or worse, in the running of other countries. There are no Chinese analogs to America's unambiguously disastrous adventures in Iran (Mosaddegh), Iraq, Afghanistan, Apartheid South Africa, Chile (Allende), Vietnam etc. America's main success, in my opinion, h…

> China doesn't intervene, for better or worse, in the running of other countries

I'm not sure Taiwan agrees with you. One could also argue about Tibet.

I also remember hearing they are fairly involved in Africa, but I don't recall the exact details (so I could be off there).

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#44

Post by eunoia »

okal wrote: post #28
eunoia wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think "China sucks for Chinese people", please explain why you also seem to believe they would treat others any better than their own?

They don't treat other people better. Chinese foreign policy is generally indifferent to the politics of their trade partners. China doesn't intervene, for better or worse, in the running of other countries. There are no Chinese analogs to America's unambiguously disastrous adventures in Iran (Mosaddegh), Iraq, Afghanistan, Apartheid South Africa, Chile (Allende), Vietnam etc. America's main success, in my opinion, h…

I think you have an interesting point about America's tendency to wrap itself in the mythos of the "Good Guy" and the inherent hypocrisy between our words and actions.

But with that being said, I think you're making an unfair comparison between two countries. America has been the world hegemon for ~70 years. Have we abused that power at times? Absolutely. Would China abuse the same power given the opportunity? Most certainly. It's human nature.

It would appear as though you're confusing relative weakness (i.e. their current inability to project their values upon the entire world) with virtue. If they had that power, they would probably use it like every other powerful country has over the course in human history.

> China doesn't intervene, for better or worse, in the running of other countries.

Taiwan and Tibet would like a word.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#45

Post by astebbin »

frockington wrote: post #30
zapita wrote: post #21

I would argue that, more than anyone else, the US is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order. It has been on that course since the post-9/11 insanity, and the trend has only accelerated since.

As an American I would be happy to see someone else take responsibility. If China thinks they can somehow bring stability to the Middle East then give them a shot. At least when they inevitably descend into chaos again it wont be us having to babysit. I think many Americans are hoping China tries to take a leadership role in Asia and near neighbors

>I think many Americans are hoping China tries to take a leadership role in Asia and near neighbors

Could you elaborate on this? My impression was that China has recently been bullying its neighbors, particularly Vietnam and to some extent the Philippines, over oil and gas deposits in the South China Sea. I can't imagine that's great for regional stability.

I also wonder if many Americans would want China to take on a leadership role with respect to Taiwan. I doubt the Taiwanese would take such a view.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#46

Post by everdev »

Leary wrote: post #20
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. You'd have to be insane to invade China, though. "Never get involved in a land war in Asia". Especially never get involved in a land war in Asia against someone with an army the size of China's. > 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. This advantage the current administration seems to be working as hard as possible to destroy. As far…

Nobody is capable of invading China, that is true. But American mainland is a lot more secure than China's. Any military conflict will be fought near China and have direct costs to China. For example, a blockage of the strait of Malacca will cripple China. As to the economy, as long as China grows faster than 3%, it will gain relatively to the US.

Infrastructure destruction by missiles, terrorism and hacking (power grid, financial system, etc.) seem more dangerous at the moment and geography plays little to no role in any of those.

Also, weaponize space and all terrestrial advantages become mostly moot (no GPS, communications, etc.).

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#47

Post by Pmop »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #15
Leary wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America has a number of enduring advantages: 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. 3. It is an offshoot of western civilization and therefore has natural allies in Europe. China's advantages are: 1. It has a population that is 3-4 times the size of the US. 2. Its economy is still underdeveloped, therefore economic growth is a lot easie…

> 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. You'd have to be insane to invade China, though. "Never get involved in a land war in Asia". Especially never get involved in a land war in Asia against someone with an army the size of China's. > 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. This advantage the current administration seems to be working as hard as possible to destroy. As far…

Actually, it isn't impossible.

You don't need to invade the entire land, you just need to bomb a few targets. A nice chunk of China's population and structure is distributed across China's shores. If you take a look at photos of China at night from space, you'll see that the shores are way way brighter than inland. Interesting enough, there are plenty US allies nearby which could be used as base to make bombing easier.

Edit:However, I, personally, don't think we'll see big dogs such as U.S and China fighting in any moment near future. We have developed tools so efficient to kill each other that the best ideia possible is to not use them. At these times, big wars are too costly for everyone, involved or not.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#48

Post by Leary »

tengbretson wrote: post #13
swarnie_ wrote: post #4

I'm excited to see how the world will turn out with new leadership, absolutely nothing wrong with progress/trying new things.

I think I can be pretty confident in saying that a global super power not founded on enlightenment ideas will be an objectively worse place to live.

What type of enlightenment ideas led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003?

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#49

Post by rfinney »

forgotagain95 wrote: post #32
jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

I am curious who is the analog to the french aristocrats. With 95% of the tax burdened by those earning more than $50k, it is crucial to define this. The median income is roughly about this value as well, so basically nearly all the tax is burdened by the top 50% earning populace. If you raise the bar further ($200k), its still nearly 60% of the taxes being paid by 5-10% of the populace. So I am not sure I buy that t…

Another take on these statistics ..

from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-its-a-myth-that-the-rich-ar... ...

Who pays most of the country's taxes -- the rich, poor or middle class? If you add up it all up, including federal income, payroll, excise (such as for gas), and state and local taxes, it's pretty even. Each group's share of total taxes is roughly equivalent to their income.

In other words, concludes Washington advocacy group Citizens for Tax Justice, the U.S. tax system is only marginally progresssive, meaning that people at the top hardly pay any more than folks lower down the income ladder.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#50

Post by everdev »

w0de0 wrote: post #22
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. You'd have to be insane to invade China, though. "Never get involved in a land war in Asia". Especially never get involved in a land war in Asia against someone with an army the size of China's. > 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. This advantage the current administration seems to be working as hard as possible to destroy. As far…

Yes, you'd have to be insane to invade China. Their massive army makes it mass suicide. Maintaining that deterrence is the the actual disadvantage to China - not the risk of invasion, but the cost of preventing invasion.

I don't think they're actually concerned about that. I think their standing force is more about building national unity and pride.

Battles are rapidly migrating to the air (drones, missiles, etc.) and cyberspace.

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