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China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

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Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#11

Post by dsfyu404ed »

jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

>US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not so different than the French aristocrats who refused to pay taxes in run-up to the revolution.

Or you could see it as being like the USSR which drove itself into the ground by spending everyone's money (trying to keep up with the US) faster than everyone could create it.

Tax/deficit problems can not be considered just tax problems or just spending problems because the amount of input is not meaningful except in relation to the amount of output. It's like how diet and exercise need to be considered together if you want to make a plan for meaningful weight loss. If we stopped playing world police (or just did it less) and made the government gravy train more efficient (i.e. less of a gravy train, which sounds easy but it's actually hard because nobody wants to stop pissing money away on their pet program/subsidy) we could probably have both good social safety nets and less taxes.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#13

Post by tengbretson »

swarnie_ wrote: post #4

I'm excited to see how the world will turn out with new leadership, absolutely nothing wrong with progress/trying new things.

I think I can be pretty confident in saying that a global super power not founded on enlightenment ideas will be an objectively worse place to live.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#14

Post by sykhic »

sremani wrote: post #8
jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

Their Geography is not better either they do not have direct access to Pacific, their energy dependence on ME oil is very evident and of course 17 bordering states with numerous disputes. If US goes down (that's a big If and very unlikely event) then Pacific will be Japanese playground not Chinas and India will tie-up with the biggest maritime power to check them in India Ocean. Its really hard to be a super power at…

Japan does not have the capability to compete with Chinese naval power. Why do you think it’s unlikely that the US will go down? What time frame are you attributing this unlikelihood to take place in? I’m assuming you mean in the next few decades and not meaning a much larger time frame.

I have no expertise but it appears from my perspective that the US is in a state of imperial decline. I think this will accelerate in the coming decades. For me the canary in the coal mine event was Gulf War 1 when the US went around asking other countries to help pay for our war. Mercenary nation. There are lots of other signs of imperial decline as I see things but that event was very telling.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#15

Post by AnimalMuppet »

Leary wrote: post #7
jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

America has a number of enduring advantages: 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. 3. It is an offshoot of western civilization and therefore has natural allies in Europe. China's advantages are: 1. It has a population that is 3-4 times the size of the US. 2. Its economy is still underdeveloped, therefore economic growth is a lot easie…

> 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions.

You'd have to be insane to invade China, though. "Never get involved in a land war in Asia". Especially never get involved in a land war in Asia against someone with an army the size of China's.

> 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants.

This advantage the current administration seems to be working as hard as possible to destroy. As far as I know, though, this is still an advantage for the US compared to China.

> 2. Its [China's] economy is still underdeveloped, therefore economic growth is a lot easier.

It's not nearly as underdeveloped as it used to be. Further growth will be significantly harder than past growth was. Can China keep it going? I don't know.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#16

Post by bobthepanda »

Leary wrote: post #7
jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

America has a number of enduring advantages: 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. 3. It is an offshoot of western civilization and therefore has natural allies in Europe. China's advantages are: 1. It has a population that is 3-4 times the size of the US. 2. Its economy is still underdeveloped, therefore economic growth is a lot easie…

The easy growth is gone, though, now that the labor market in China is tightening up. A lot of countries have made it to the middle stage of development and then petered out on growth; that list includes Thailand, Malaysia, Turkey, etc, all of which rank higher either on GDP per capita or GNI per capita.

China is interesting in that its society is rapidly aging before it becomes a high income country, which is enough of a rough transition for high income countries.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#17

Post by okal »

naiveai wrote: post #10
swarnie_ wrote: post #4

I'm excited to see how the world will turn out with new leadership, absolutely nothing wrong with progress/trying new things.

Yes, and Xi Jinping is a good candidate for that leadership. Just because, oh, new leadership.

In many ways, yes. I think Americans tend to underestimate how incredibly damaging US foreign policy has been to massive chunks of the world. The same cannot be said of China. To grossly overgeneralize: China sucks for Chinese people. America sucks for non-Americans¹, and that's only become worse in the recent past. It's something I welcome, with some reluctance.

¹ I mean this in global terms. Not referring to immigrants.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#18

Post by cjbenedikt »

Leary wrote: post #7
jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

America has a number of enduring advantages: 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. 3. It is an offshoot of western civilization and therefore has natural allies in Europe. China's advantages are: 1. It has a population that is 3-4 times the size of the US. 2. Its economy is still underdeveloped, therefore economic growth is a lot easie…

Re #1 it isn't about conventional invasion at all Re #2 it currently is not embracing immigration Re#3 it is currently alienating its European patners

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#19

Post by eunoia »

okal wrote: post #17
naiveai wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and Xi Jinping is a good candidate for that leadership. Just because, oh, new leadership.

In many ways, yes. I think Americans tend to underestimate how incredibly damaging US foreign policy has been to massive chunks of the world. The same cannot be said of China. To grossly overgeneralize: China sucks for Chinese people. America sucks for non-Americans¹, and that's only become worse in the recent past. It's something I welcome, with some reluctance. ¹ I mean this in global terms. Not referring to immigr…

If you think "China sucks for Chinese people", please explain why you also seem to believe they would treat others any better than their own?

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#20

Post by Leary »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #15
Leary wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America has a number of enduring advantages: 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. 3. It is an offshoot of western civilization and therefore has natural allies in Europe. China's advantages are: 1. It has a population that is 3-4 times the size of the US. 2. Its economy is still underdeveloped, therefore economic growth is a lot easie…

> 1. Its geography means it's impervious to conventional invasions. You'd have to be insane to invade China, though. "Never get involved in a land war in Asia". Especially never get involved in a land war in Asia against someone with an army the size of China's. > 2. Its embracing culture will attract more immigrants. This advantage the current administration seems to be working as hard as possible to destroy. As far…

Nobody is capable of invading China, that is true. But American mainland is a lot more secure than China's. Any military conflict will be fought near China and have direct costs to China. For example, a blockage of the strait of Malacca will cripple China.

As to the economy, as long as China grows faster than 3%, it will gain relatively to the US.

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