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That sinking feeling

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Re: That sinking feeling

#31

Post by karmajunkie »

bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

The problem is that it wasn't a legitimate vote, free off outside influence. The Russian troll factory was hard at work influencing the outcome of that referendum. So what's the actual will of the people?

Re: That sinking feeling

#32

Post by maaark »

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #13
losvedir wrote: post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

> Maybe I misunderstood the tone but it seemed to me that Stross wanted a customs border between Northern Ireland and Britain, and no such border between it and Ireland? I don't think he was expressing a preference. Rather he was saying that either option is politically impossible, and that the only other option is a hard brexit.

Hard brexit isn't an alternative to a customs border between NI and ROI either. The only way to avoid putting a customs border somewhere is to stay in the customs union, which both major UK political parties have ruled out.

Re: That sinking feeling

#33

Post by maaark »

lettergram wrote: post #11
losvedir wrote: post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

A bit of history - in Northern Ireland, before the Good Friday Agreement, the IRA was killing MPs... Part of that was because they didn't feel they had a representation. So now they do have a lot more self-government, including a Northern Ireland Assembly and Northern Ireland Executive. They to some extent are a state within a state already, and if they close the border with Ireland, that agreement is broken... I'm s…

No government here, lad.

https://howlonghasnorthernirelandnothadagovernment.com/

34 days until the record!

Re: That sinking feeling

#34

Post by TorKlingberg »

I am quite sure the author is exaggerating the risks here. But, it scares me that there are people who think you can just close the borders and everything will be fine. Worse, those people might be running the country.

Re: That sinking feeling

#35

Post by NeedMoreTea »

consto wrote: post #26

While the article may seem alarmist, considering how little the government has achieved in the 762 days since the referendum, I too have little hope of any meaningful progress being made. We have 240 days left, little idea what the government even wants, and Theresa May is in the headlines for snatching milk from children. Not that the opposition is in much better shape. I do not know what Brexit the UK will get, but…

> When was the last time any UK government pulled of something this big this quickly?

Suez?

Re: That sinking feeling

#36

Post by macintux »

api wrote: post #15

I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible." The Trump and Brexit elections were for some people a kind of Luddite revolt -- not against technology per se but against globalization. This was a revolt by the working classes of the developed world against a globalization process that is substantially impoverishing them. I can't say I…

> a globalization process that is substantially impoverishing them

I sadly can't disagree with most of your comment, but I'm skeptical about this.

I see drugs impoverishing people. I see unaffordable health care impoverishing people.

The hollowing out of the traditional factory economy certainly hurt, but I wonder how much of that was artificially inflated by the fact that the rest of the industrialized world was decimated by the two world wars. Would the factories still be there if we had stiffer trade barriers?

I think globalization has become the scapegoat for many things that the American people aren't comfortable with (demographic changes, the transition from a manufacturing to a service economy) while not getting the credit for the vast improvements it has brought.

Growth has slowed dramatically. But that's not impoverishment.

Re: That sinking feeling

#37

Post by maxerickson »

losvedir wrote: post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

The government is going to pay farmers $12 billion in aid due to the tariffs and then they are going to put crops in piles to rot.

I guess that technically isn't the sky falling, but the food going to waste is the sort of thing reasonable people would have predicted. They wouldn't necessarily have predicted the targeted bailout.

Another thing where the sky isn't falling is that companies that consume steel and aluminum are doing worse. Again, exactly the sort of thing that reasonable people predicted.

Re: That sinking feeling

#38

Post by pjc50 »

bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

> implementing the will of the people

> best of your ability.

Leaving aside the plain lack of ability from those running the show, as written this is a mandate for the "Norway option" - EEA and free movement, ECJ etc, but not actually in the EU. This is basically as close to the status quo as possible except we'd give up our ability to vote on EU rules and just have to accept them.

However, when this is suggested, a whole bunch of Brexiteers respond with outrage.

Re: That sinking feeling

#39

Post by ThomPete »

karmajunkie wrote: post #31
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

The problem is that it wasn't a legitimate vote, free off outside influence. The Russian troll factory was hard at work influencing the outcome of that referendum. So what's the actual will of the people?

You need to prove that. It hasent been.

Re: That sinking feeling

#40

Post by apeacox »

api wrote: post #15

I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible." The Trump and Brexit elections were for some people a kind of Luddite revolt -- not against technology per se but against globalization. This was a revolt by the working classes of the developed world against a globalization process that is substantially impoverishing them. I can't say I…

> This could have been avoided, but the time to avoid it was perhaps in the early 2000s.

there were protests, from Seattle '99 until Genova '01, where many different groups merged into a single protest agaist that kind of globalization. but after 9/11 everything almost vanished in the name of worldwide anti-terrorism.

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