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That sinking feeling

antipope.org

21–30 of 178 posts

Re: That sinking feeling

#21
>The Electoral Commission has uncovered evidence of electoral spending irregularities in the Leave.UK and Vote Leave campaigns serious enough to justify criminal investigation and possible prosecution

Somehow those kinds of probes only conveniently find "irregularities" from the sides that the political elites are against...

UK is supposedly a democracy (and thus such matters are to be decided by popular vote), but the pro-EU side has brought a strong TINA approach over the whole thing -- as it's not just a choice with pros and cons, that can be debated, and eventually go either way (even if it has a cost), but some kind of historical inevitability for the UK to be in the EU.

And anyone against is a bad person, and/or racist, and/or baseless (if not an agent). This demonising will continue to hurt the Bremain in the UK (and the ruling classes in general) and the Democrats in the US. You cannot rule a people, or have a united country, unless you understand "how the other side lives" and their grievances.

And all of that after a long period where the legitimacy of the EU was in question, the Euro in the crapper, and fiscal policies made to benefit a few big gorilla countries (if not a single one).

(And after 2 decades of power elites getting their way with the Maastricht treaty, the Lisbon treaty and so on, untangling 50+ years of social protections in the process -- and after time after time, the popular vote for the EU constitution, policies and other matters has been against when it was asked for in a referendum (e.g. in France, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc).

(This is of course not a popular approach for the upper middle class, mobile, HN crowd).

>On a micro scale: I'm stockpiling enough essential medicines to keep me alive for six months, and will in due course try and stockpile enough food for a couple of weeks.

Rather, on a micro and macro scale: nothing much will change. The "end is coming" survivalist fantasies will be laughed at 2-3 years from now. I'm saving this post, let's check back and see who was right.

Re: That sinking feeling

#22

This is from an outsider to UK politics but it seems weird to me that we didn't see the Lib Dems or some other smallish party position themselves as the party of "We won't Brexit" and pick up a lot of the Remain votes?

Both the Lib Dems and the SNP are pretty clear about not wanting Brexit (possibly some other parties as well) - but this means nothing in the context of UK politics.

Given that the current Labour leadership are quietly pro-Brexit and that there is unlikely to be an election anytime soon I don't think there is any chance of an electoral solution to this problem.

https://www.libdems.org.uk/exit-brexit

https://www.snp.org/what_is_the_snp_plan_for_brexit

Re: That sinking feeling

#23

This is from an outsider to UK politics but it seems weird to me that we didn't see the Lib Dems or some other smallish party position themselves as the party of "We won't Brexit" and pick up a lot of the Remain votes?

The Lib Dems went into a coalition with the Conservatives in 2010 and still aren't forgiven for failing to deliver any of their campaign promises.

Re: That sinking feeling

#24
Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people.

It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are consequences and benefits for which the people voted. I think as democratic stewards and public servants, the only thing you can do is implement the Brexit to the best of your ability. Even in the face of the many grave personal reservations you may hold as to the wisdom of that Brexit.

Re: That sinking feeling

#25
post #4

Entertaining, but realistically the UK will just get a "bad deal". Life will go on, political parties are blamed, then we get to repeat it all again because the next party to be elected does it on a platform of "renegotiating".

Realistically the UK is shaping up for no deal. Highly appealing to Rees Mogg and his tax haven based hedge fund, not so good for everyone else.

No deal will mean life goes on with tariffs on many goods in either direction. As we have seen over the last two years the Foreign Office has seemingly lost everyone who has diplomatic ability. Funny, they used to be famously good at it. This is not promising for the chances of equitable trade agreements with anyone after Brexit. Life will go on but it appears it'll be a damn sight more expensive.

If the next govt wants to renegotiate re-entry to the EU the terms will be much less appealing than first time around.

Re: That sinking feeling

#26
While the article may seem alarmist, considering how little the government has achieved in the 762 days since the referendum, I too have little hope of any meaningful progress being made. We have 240 days left, little idea what the government even wants, and Theresa May is in the headlines for snatching milk from children. Not that the opposition is in much better shape.

I do not know what Brexit the UK will get, but it will be a lazy, half-arsed Brexit. My prediction is either the UK will crash out entirely leaving the country in the chaos described in the article, give in to essentially all of the EU's demands in the last few days or weeks to save face, or give up entirely and call the whole thing off. When was the last time any UK government pulled of something this big this quickly?

I am probably going to stockpile medicines, food, and essentials late Winter.

Re: That sinking feeling

#27
post #4

Entertaining, but realistically the UK will just get a "bad deal". Life will go on, political parties are blamed, then we get to repeat it all again because the next party to be elected does it on a platform of "renegotiating".

There is a non-zero chance that May is replaced by a hard brexiter and they insist, by will of the referendum, that a hard brexit must occur. You can see UKIP bubbling back up in frustration.

When you consider what a soft brexit is, it's genuinely nothing of what leave wanted. The UK still doesn't have a solid border between itself and the EU because of the Good Friday Agreement, the UK still had to pay the EU and follow it's regulations and for all that it gets zero say in the EU legislature.

So there is a real chance of a hard brexit and it's going to be very messy.

Re: That sinking feeling

#28
post #20

This is from an outsider to UK politics but it seems weird to me that we didn't see the Lib Dems or some other smallish party position themselves as the party of "We won't Brexit" and pick up a lot of the Remain votes?

They did. People didn't read it.

People probably didn't trust it.

Nick Clegg rather infamously signed a very public pledge to vote against increases in tuition fees[0]. Then voted for tuition fees in coalition.

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/nov/12/lib-dems-tu...

Re: That sinking feeling

#29
post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

> Trump and tariffs

Already happening:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-to-announc...

> That seems bizarre to me if you think of the UK as one country, and Ireland as a different one.

Even if you do, what constitutes "Ireland"?

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo6/12-13-14/41 : "Republic of Ireland not a foreign country."

The whole situation is a fudge; the Protestant community refused (with violence) to be part of a Catholic Ireland, and Irish people both sides of the border refuse to accept the arbitrary partitioning of Ireland ("the island of Ireland").

The UK has a peace agreement (Good Friday Agreement) which enumerates the compromises. People born in NI are entitled to citizenship of both countries, for example. It does not actually encode "there shall not be a customs border", but everyone remembers that the IRA used to bomb customs posts.

http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_frida...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/The_hardest_bord...

Re: That sinking feeling

#30
post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

What good is a vote if the choices aren't honestly presented?
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