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That sinking feeling

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11–20 of 178 posts

Re: That sinking feeling

#11
post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

A bit of history - in Northern Ireland, before the Good Friday Agreement, the IRA was killing MPs...

Part of that was because they didn't feel they had a representation. So now they do have a lot more self-government, including a Northern Ireland Assembly and Northern Ireland Executive. They to some extent are a state within a state already, and if they close the border with Ireland, that agreement is broken... I'm sure you already have some of the IRA gearing up.

Re: That sinking feeling

#13
post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

> Maybe I misunderstood the tone but it seemed to me that Stross wanted a customs border between Northern Ireland and Britain, and no such border between it and Ireland?

I don't think he was expressing a preference. Rather he was saying that either option is politically impossible, and that the only other option is a hard brexit.

Re: That sinking feeling

#14
This is from an outsider to UK politics but it seems weird to me that we didn't see the Lib Dems or some other smallish party position themselves as the party of "We won't Brexit" and pick up a lot of the Remain votes?

Re: That sinking feeling

#15
I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible."

The Trump and Brexit elections were for some people a kind of Luddite revolt -- not against technology per se but against globalization. This was a revolt by the working classes of the developed world against a globalization process that is substantially impoverishing them.

I can't say I blame them much. I don't know about the UK but in the USA nobody cares. The American left looks down on the working class for their religious beliefs and hates them for their social conservatism. The American right pretends to care long enough to win an election and then goes back to pursuing policies that hollow out industry in favor of lucrative labor arbitrage profits for major corporations.

This could have been avoided, but the time to avoid it was perhaps in the early 2000s. Developed nations that don't have these problems are those that have taken steps to protect (through social safety nets) and retrain those whose jobs are threatened. But here in the US and (AFIAK) UK we have made college dramatically more expensive, allowed housing and health care to inflate far beyond wages, and generally twiddled our thumbs and looked the other way. It's almost like some fraction of the US educated and wealthy classes delight in the economic impoverishment of its middle and have pursued policies designed to do exactly that. I say this because as the effects have become apparent we have doubled down on these policies.

What are the victims of these policies going to do? Nobody listens to them. Nobody cares. So in the end all they're left with is political revolts that most of them from what I've read understand are likely impotent, but at least somebody is discussing it. I'm a coastal "tech elite" and I'm writing this post and I wouldn't be if Hillary had won and Brexit hadn't passed. That's democracy I guess.

Edit: one more point:

During the election I watched a show (Colbert I think but I'm not sure) where Trump supporters and "MAGA" were mocked by walking around and asking them when they thought America was great. None of them had a good off the cuff way to answer the question. Well here's the answer if anyone is curious:

http://www.eoionline.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/productivity-...

Draw a line through 1973. Before: America was great. After: America is not great.

Highly skilled and educated Americans don't get the appeal of MAGA because they have been spared to a much greater extent from this divergence. I would argue they've still felt it but more through indirect means like housing hyperinflation on the coasts, but it hasn't been visceral enough to provoke an extreme response.

I'm not and never was a Trump supporter but I totally get the appeal of that slogan and it's not stupid at all. It's very real.

Re: That sinking feeling

#16
Any article which devolves to name calling within a few paragraphs (the Nazi stuff) lacks credibility and can safely be dismissed. It won't win anyone over and just looks like someone who is preaching to the choir.

Re: That sinking feeling

#17
post #5

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. T…

It's not about what cstross wants. It's about what the various stakeholders with effective veto power can accept, and how that makes a deal unlikely.

Re: That sinking feeling

#19

This is from an outsider to UK politics but it seems weird to me that we didn't see the Lib Dems or some other smallish party position themselves as the party of "We won't Brexit" and pick up a lot of the Remain votes?

That's the Lib Dem position exactly, but they are currently too small to matter.

Re: That sinking feeling

#20

This is from an outsider to UK politics but it seems weird to me that we didn't see the Lib Dems or some other smallish party position themselves as the party of "We won't Brexit" and pick up a lot of the Remain votes?

They did. People didn't read it.
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