There's a pattern from Elon of overpromising, and then pulling through, but way later. I wouldn't be surprised if they're easily staying at a 5000/week production baseline in the next three months.
Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
121–130 of 384 posts
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
One cannot will anything one wants into existence. At some point, he'll need to understand how to design an effective large-scale manufacturing system, and not simply yell for one. Specifically, he should actually learn some things about managing people, and the place that has in producing quality at volume at speed. It's sad, because that's exactly the lesson Toyota was trying to teach at NUMMI, and their legacy has…
I didn't mean it this way. I believe Musk has enough self confidence and college education to think he can crack through things like he did with SpaceX (remember they almost died and now vertical reusable landing is almost the new normal). So if he manages to keep Tesla growing, he'll fix things on the way. Maybe he'll have time to read about Toyota :)
I do think he'll learn, and I trust that he's a pretty decent person all things considered. Hope it goes well for them!
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
Until Tesla goes bankrupt (which I believe is sooner rather than later - Tesla is sitting on a Wells Notice), the charade continues.
I would argue that the number of companies who have gone bankrupt sitting on this dollar volume of preorders is and will continue to be, 0. Worst case scenario, they can issue stock or sell a chunk of the company. Even easier is to dial back R&D.
Pre-orders are overstated. Check Twitter - people who were quoted November delivery for AWD Performance are now being told they can take delivery in July.
They'll burn through supposed 450K before the end of Q3, and then the order book is dry/cash crunch time for Tesla.
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#124> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…
Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…
Why should Tesla be worth 600B if they produce 2 million cars a year? Toyota makes 10M cars per year and has a market cap of less than 300B.
Future growth is already baked into Tesla's current valuation of 60B. They're not making any money today (in fact they're losing billions) but they have a high market cap because they might become profitable years from now. Once (if) they become a mature car manufacturer their valuation multiple will go way down. They'll be judged on their profit margin and FCF like any other car manufacturer.
Your best case scenario of Tesla growing their market cap by 550B in the next 2 years is completely unrealistic. Even Facebook didn't grow that quickly, and their profit margin is second to none.
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#125I would guess Tesla announces the 200,000th domestic sale sometime in the next week. They could be hitting their ramp-up to high production of the Model 3 right when they hit the 200k domestic electric car milestone. This also happens to be right at the beginning of a quarter so they can get as many $7500 federal tax credits for their customers as they can. One would guess this is not just some lucky coincidence, but…
That's only for American sales so no reason why they can't ramp production and just export to other markets.
That is why I said "domestic sales". They want to hit 200k US sales at the beginning of a quarter and when they have a high production rate. That would be this quarter starting July 1, as they are already very near the 200k limit. It's not reasonable to think they could export the whole next quarter's production of S, X and 3 production without many serious repercussions. One being pissing off hundreds of thousands of US model 3 reservation holders.
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you clarify, did Tesla announce this, or are you announcing this?
Its discussed towards the bottom of that Bloomberg link.
Can you quote the text here? For the life of me I can’t find the section you’re referencing. I’ve heard the “timing production to match tax credit” thing before and it doesn’t make sense to me, hence why I’m trying to track down the primary source.
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#127> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…
OK, sure, but call it 4850 of 5000 when everyone says there wasn't a prayer of making it is pretty remarkable. Call it 97% of the way. The fact that they built out a tent and hustled 24/7 to hit the goal is impressive to me.
Overall it's pretty classic Tesla/Musk. Predict the absolutely impossible, get 97% of the way there, and regardless of how you slice it the only thing that's not impressive is the facxt that they didn't meet the arbitrary guideline. They still crushed everything that anyone else thought was possible, so IMO it's a victory just a hollow one.
Will they be able to repeat this sustainably? Probably not unless they figure some other things out, but the point is that it's within striking distance. The company has a shot at profitability in the near future, and I see Teslas everywhere now.
In the past they missed it drastically; the number is important because if they can figure out a way to get to that level of production they have the chance to become cashflow positive relatively quickly.
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#128Finally got to drive Model 3 yesterday. A friend received his car a few days ago and let me try it on some suburban streets. Nothing fancy. But I did take it for a mini "drag race" against another buddy's Porsche 911. Again this was on a residential tree-lined street with kids playing outside. Not exactly fast and furious. But it definitely kept pace that first eighth of a mile ;) In my humble opinion it outclasses a…
A friend of mine and I used to “race” (drive fast on public roads) together in high school. One day he was driving fast on his own, and when he came around a corner he saw kids in the road. He swerved and missed them. He hit a tree and died. Drive safely off the track.
Am sorry to hear that, TaylorAlexander. This was not like that. We cleared the street beforehand, and the kids enjoyed the brief show. Admittedly, even despite the precautions, it felt unsafe. And I will certainly endeavor to keep it on regulation race tracks in the future :)
Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week
#129> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…
Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…
The third scenario seems 40% until you realize that 2 million Model 3s per year @ average price of 45K are being sold.
I am not a car market place expert, $45K cars do not usually move in those numbers.
edit: For reference, check the number of cars moved. https://www.statista.com/statistics/276419/best-selling-cars...