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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#111
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They timed production to maximize federal tax credits for US consumers.

Can you clarify, did Tesla announce this, or are you announcing this?

A huge percentage of this quarter’s cars went to Canada to avoid triggering the tax credit sunset

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that half of those 5000 are being produced in a tent in the parking lot with summer heat and no AC, I can only imagine.

You can have AC on big tents, and I would be surprised if they didn't as your external 40C could easily become dangerous in a literal greenhouse. At least forced ventilation is needed.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. He may never be able to learn at all—beliefs about people and management are far more hard-set than those about physics and engineering. That said, I think he'll get it done…

Until Tesla goes bankrupt (which I believe is sooner rather than later - Tesla is sitting on a Wells Notice), the charade continues.

I would argue that the number of companies who have gone bankrupt sitting on this dollar volume of preorders is and will continue to be, 0. Worst case scenario, they can issue stock or sell a chunk of the company. Even easier is to dial back R&D.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#114

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

This reads like the film "Gung Ho" made reality.

What about "Tucker?"

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#115

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

You think there is a 10% chance that Musk is snake-oil salesman and a sham?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#116
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

You think there is a 10% chance that Musk is snake-oil salesman and a sham?

Is that too high or too low?

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#117

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Tesla is most overpriced startup currently on the market. It will crash in a spectacular way in near future. They are constatly missing deadlines, have quality issues, troubles to manufacture spare parts in sufficient quantity and have terrible work environment yet everybody are coming up with excuses for them. This will end at some point and that even beside the fact that electric car in reality create more pollutio…

>This will end at some point and that even beside the fact that electric car in reality create more pollution in vast majority of the world more than modern engines.

Is this thread being linked to by some Tesla short seller blog of what?

Surely this kind of misinformation isn’t organic to HN.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've been around 15 years and they bought a modern manufacturing plant purpose built to make cars. They can buy talent. I won't cut them too much slack, supposedly they're worth more than GM. Now prove it.

Up til now they've only been doing relatively low volume production. I doubt Bently could scale up either and they know a bit about making cars.

Well, Bentley is making ~9000 cars per year with ~3000 employees. Tesla is making ~100k cars per year with ~37k employees (not counting all the subcontractors). That's exactly the same ratio, and it's bloody awful compared to large-scale car manufacturers. E.g. Toyota has 10x the number of employees as Tesla but makes 100x as many cars. Even if next year Tesla production is 5000 cars per week all year, they will still have >4x as many employees per car built compared to Toyota.

Also, Bentley is fully owned by Volkswagen. If they wanted to "scale up" to a downmarket Model 3 equivalent, they'd take the VW MQB platform, use most of the non-platform components from the Mk7 VW Jetta (probably offering the 250hp and 300hp engines with AWD), spend 2-3 years developing sufficiently distinct styling parts, and then be able to churn out 100k cars per year.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, large-scale manufacturing is a different thing from rocket engineering. It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. He may never be able to learn at all—beliefs about people and management are far more hard-set than those about physics and engineering. That said, I think he'll get it done…

> It ceases to be about building something, and begins to be about understanding and managing people. That's what I challenge Musk is still learning, and far too slowly. Hmm. This strikes me as somewhat implausible or at least uncharitable. Are there other example of doing something as complex, in a 'new' field, at a scale to compete with incumbent operators AND vertically integrating both design and manufacture? If…

Yes, you're correct. And in fact I had a bet with a friend ten years ago that Tesla would in fact still be around today. He didn't think they would. I just won that bet in January. :)

The shame is that the parts that are innovative, like the engineering of an electric car, the design, the interface, and the battery technology, are all going so well, all things considered.

Whereas the parts that don't necessarily require innovation on a major scale, such as management of people, the operation of a manufacturing line at scale, systemic quality control, and safety and health—are being done (by all accounts) not so well. These are the things that are far more difficult than the technology and innovation precisely because they are so much more complex, and require a different mindset. For the same reason Musk is so good at engineering, it is not totally surprising he is not so spectacular at leading the human systems required for this new pursuit. Again, by all accounts.

And the sad part: these are the parts that have been done before, in similar situations, at similar scales, with similarly new technologies, without drastically different requirements or problems. Having that experience available to you and not using it is not exactly wise.

All that said, I think he'll learn what he needs to learn, get it done anyway, and will not fail. Making this point of efficiency at this stage pretty moot. I realize that.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#120

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

Oh my god, come on. I'm a Tesla bear, and I don't really see a massive different between a rate of 4,850 cars and 5,000 cars....
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