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Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

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Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#131

Post by maherbeg »

misja111 wrote: post #75
jillesvangurp wrote: post #56

The way I see it, logistics aside, Tesla has awesome cars that are loved by those that manage to get one delivered, customers are actually lining up to buy them to the extent of paying just to get in line for that years ahead of time, and they are pretty much guaranteed to sell anything they ship for the foreseeable future. Better still most of their would be competitors are either not shipping at all right now, year…

If you believe that there is not much of competition for Tesla right now, you should read this: https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/10/17096608/tesla-jaguar-por...

I think the question is whether or not this expands the market more than it takes away share from Tesla. I think it's a bit of both, but hoping that it leans more towards expansion than cannibalization.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#132

Post by wpietri »

windexh8er wrote: post #81
wpietri wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are pretty much close to the promised rate of 5K cars/week They might hit that goal, but I'm very concerned about how they're getting there. Toyota was the company that really figured out how to make good cars economically. They came out of Japan's post-war economic devastation to kick the asses of US carmakers. Their thinking was so alien to traditional approaches that Detroit spent decades trying to catch on…

Toyota embraced Deming/Kaizen, it wasn't their idea. Beyond that Tesla is a more extreme version of those ideas. Toyota doesn't need to, but it's likely they also wouldn't, build an entirely new line to meet a goal. That would be out of the focal range of their 'softer' implementation of continual improvements. Musk on the other hand is not averse to continual improvements that are on the extreme end of the spectrum.…

Toyota did embrace Deming, but there's a reason we call it the Toyota Production System. I think you understate their willingness to approach radical changes through continuous improvement; note that they were pioneers in hybrid vehicles, starting on the Prius at time when Musk wasn't even out of college.

I also think you miss the real value of patient continuous improvement in production lines. Extreme changes work against the drive to reduce variance and waste. The OTA software fix is indeed impressive, and last I heard Toyota software process lagged well behind their manufacturing process. But from Tesla's continuous failure to meet goals, it looks like the opposite is true. And Tesla's at a point where software, no matter how good, won't save them.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#133

Post by wpietri »

davedx wrote: post #78
wpietri wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are pretty much close to the promised rate of 5K cars/week They might hit that goal, but I'm very concerned about how they're getting there. Toyota was the company that really figured out how to make good cars economically. They came out of Japan's post-war economic devastation to kick the asses of US carmakers. Their thinking was so alien to traditional approaches that Detroit spent decades trying to catch on…

> A pillar of Toyota's approach is patient, gradual, relentless improvement. There are a lot of signs that Tesla has never really warmed to that. I guess it depends how you interpret the news and what Musk has said in shareholder meetings. At the last one he explicitly said that they continuously improve the process at Tesla.

I'm sure he said that. But the US car industry has a long history of boldly declared but ultimately failed attempts to adopt Toyota's process in a way sufficiently deep to get Toyota's results. Rother's book "Toyota Kata" is a good dive into why: they adopted some of the rituals, but never made the deeper cultural and philosophical changes needed to get most of the value.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#134

Post by mrguyorama »

spectrum1234 wrote: post #130
sdhgaiojfsa wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, all of this is true, and concerning to me, despite that I would never buy a Tesla (when there are perfectly good used Nissan Leafs out there!). This is part of the reason I never invest in individual stocks: I have no tolerance for the risk, and no confidence that I can interpret all these facts to come up with a coherent estimate of whether the price will go up or down. I guess my question right now is: if the s…

If perfectly good means ugly :). Not that non EVs are much better though. Model 3 is honestly the best looking car I have ever seen.

Remember that car attractiveness is an opinion. Plenty of people (including me) feel the exact opposite, ie that the Model 3 is really derpy and dumb looking

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#135

Post by mrguyorama »

_ph_ wrote: post #110
jacquesm wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, in that case you'll be lining up with the rest of the creditors and I'd assume you will get back nothing at all or pennies on the dollar at best. You're playing bank. Hot tip: don't buy cars that are not in front of you and that you can walk around, only buy cars from manufacturers with long term stability to ensure that the vehicle you've bought will function during its economic life in your hands.

Technically speaking, aren't Tesla and Ford the only two American car companies, who haven't ever gone bankrupt? :)

That's a kind of meaningless assertion though, since Tesla is significantly younger than Ford and others

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#136

Post by hnaccy »

ben_w wrote: post #114
compcoffee wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd prefer to invest most of the money Is "I don't own a car" the new "I don't own a TV" virtue signalling? Seriously, you are offering up your opinion on a product you admittedly have no knowledge of,and no interest in owning.

Everything humans do, including asking questions about virtue signalling, is virtue signaling. That said, although I don’t own a car, I didn’t actually say that in my previous post. I’m lucky that where I live, I don’t need to. That situation is likely to change, and I have no intention to build an identity of, or make a virtue out of, either having or not having a car. If that seems contradictory, consider it virtue…

>Everything humans do, including asking questions about virtue signalling, is virtue signaling.

Do you not believe in the existence of true dialectics?

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#137

Post by smcl »

cptskippy wrote: post #119
smcl wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla need to take money from new clients to make their existing clients whole. That's kind of a bad sign...

> Tesla need to take money from new clients to make their existing clients whole. How did you come to that conclusion? Are there customers who aren't whole? Are there customers who have ordered a Model 3 that wasn't delivered as promised? Look at it this way... Tesla is operating at a loss and is reliant on investors to keep it afloat until it becomes profitable. The only way to do that is to demonstrate to investors…

I’m just putting the pieces together and summarising what was said. The implication from the person I replied to was that they’re due to deliver people cars and they need money to produce these (or survive long enough to produce them). Seems less than rosy tbh

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#138

Post by windexh8er »

wpietri wrote: post #132
windexh8er wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota embraced Deming/Kaizen, it wasn't their idea. Beyond that Tesla is a more extreme version of those ideas. Toyota doesn't need to, but it's likely they also wouldn't, build an entirely new line to meet a goal. That would be out of the focal range of their 'softer' implementation of continual improvements. Musk on the other hand is not averse to continual improvements that are on the extreme end of the spectrum.…

Toyota did embrace Deming, but there's a reason we call it the Toyota Production System. I think you understate their willingness to approach radical changes through continuous improvement; note that they were pioneers in hybrid vehicles, starting on the Prius at time when Musk wasn't even out of college. I also think you miss the real value of patient continuous improvement in production lines. Extreme changes work…

They call it that because: marketing. In fact I don't understate it at all. It's impressive Toyota considered and accepted it comparative to their NAM counterparts who laughed it off and ended up eating QA because of it.

Musk being out of college at release if the Prius is irrelevant. The battery technology in early Prius was very bad. The delivery of the product was good, but if your inplication that the Prius fueled full EV you're off base by a significant margin. Also look at the growth of Prius from day 1. It wasn't an overnight success and many naysayers existed then about the viability, efficacy, reliability, etc. They were all proven wrong and the minimal gamble of Prius compared to a full EV including the Supercharger network pales in comparison with regard to market resistance (both consumer and competitor).

I don't think you understand continuous improvement if you equate it to being "slow". Speed has no bearing, the meat is in the process itself.

Continuous failure? Please elaborate. Failure in the product? No different than existing manufacturera and impressive track record given their time in the market. Failure to meet shareholder expectations? Sure. That's every company, and it's too bad Musk had to go public when he did. But if Tesla is a failure I'd like to see your success. Your argument devolved into pure subjective opinion rather quick.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#139

Post by catherinezng »

sdhgaiojfsa wrote: post #96
catherinezng wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla lost ~$2B last year, owes ~$10B in debt, and owes >$400M in interest payments per year alone. Moody’s downgraded Tesla’s bond rating because Tesla will need to raise more money this year, at least $2B (which is an extremely conservative figure), to avoid Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Elon Musk also owes >$600M in personal debt that he financed using Tesla stock as collateral. This means that if Tesla stock dips below…

OK, all of this is true, and concerning to me, despite that I would never buy a Tesla (when there are perfectly good used Nissan Leafs out there!). This is part of the reason I never invest in individual stocks: I have no tolerance for the risk, and no confidence that I can interpret all these facts to come up with a coherent estimate of whether the price will go up or down. I guess my question right now is: if the s…

It takes a while for the public to react, just like it took a while for Enron and Theranos to be exposed. The market is irrational and the cult of Elon is strong - there’s too much hype, and it clouds people’s judgement.

Also fewer people know these facts than you might expect. I dug through Tesla’s SEC filings to find out, which are hundreds of pages of documents. It took me at least 10 hours of reading. Doing the due dilligence is time-consuming, and it’s really easy to just roll with a speculative opinion, as you’ve seen from many comments in this thread.

Based on my recent experiences seeing friends fundraise in YC, there is a lot of easy money going around, possibly because the low interest rate has pushed investors to look for more profitable investments through Silicon Valley, and money from Asia is pouring in.

Corporate debts is also at an all-time high - there is $6.3T in corporate debt and a cash-to-debt ratio of 12%, a record low. This means that companies are taking an unprecedented amount of risk, so maybe Tesla numbers are relatively less shocking in comparison, but I'm not optimistic it will end well. See junk bond defaults from the 80s.

By the way, Tesla bonds are considered junk bonds. They're officially labeled as B3, or "Highly speculative", and only one rating above "Substantial risks".

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#140

Post by wpietri »

windexh8er wrote: post #138
wpietri wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota did embrace Deming, but there's a reason we call it the Toyota Production System. I think you understate their willingness to approach radical changes through continuous improvement; note that they were pioneers in hybrid vehicles, starting on the Prius at time when Musk wasn't even out of college. I also think you miss the real value of patient continuous improvement in production lines. Extreme changes work…

They call it that because: marketing. In fact I don't understate it at all. It's impressive Toyota considered and accepted it comparative to their NAM counterparts who laughed it off and ended up eating QA because of it. Musk being out of college at release if the Prius is irrelevant. The battery technology in early Prius was very bad. The delivery of the product was good, but if your inplication that the Prius fuele…

I believe you are incorrect. It's hardly just Toyota's marketing department that credits Toyota with significant intellectual work. See, e.g., professors Liker and Rother at the University of Michigan.

My point about Toyota working on the Prius well in advance of others, Musk included, is to demonstrate that their continuous improvement approach doesn't prevent them from making big changes.

I don't know where you get me equating continuous improvement to slowness. Despite your quote marks, I did not use that word.

As to Musk's failure to meet goals, you need look no further than the article up top, which says, "The company has failed to meet any of its production and delivery targets for the Model 3 since its splashy event in July 2017". That isn't a matter of opinion. Musk's ongoing failure to hit his own self-declared goals is a sign of a severe process problem.

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