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Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

techcrunch.com

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Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#71

Post by danso »

ben_w wrote: post #7
sschueller wrote: post #4

Someone tweeted this video[1] of the tent production line a over a week ago. It looks a lot less clean than the picture Elon tweeted thats in the article. I don't know if I would purchase a 35K+ car that was assembled outside in the open. Also it appears quite chaotic with chassis being transported around also in the open. [1] https://twitter.com/IspyTsla/status/1009134913881190400?s=19

I have nothing to compare against, so if I was in the market for a $35k car [1] I’d probably be fine with this. [1] I’d prefer to invest most of the money and have a cheaper second hand car, and if I had enough spare that $35k was pocket change, I’d be more interested in a tiny aircraft or a small liveaboard boat.

The cars being assembled now are not being sold for $35K, are they?

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#72

Post by jokoon »

I don't really care if Tesla's account balance is ok, as long as it's selling something big and new, it's an improvement.

Making electric cars is not just a business, money and accounting doesn't matter at this point. The money side for large projects like this, is an abstraction you cannot focus on. Negative account books will always exist where innovation happens.

Forget the money, and try to think what gets made. That's all that matters.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#73

Post by danso »

compcoffee wrote: post #44
tych0 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may very well be, but rt.com is perhaps not the best source.

Why? Because it has "Russia" in its name? Seriously,give it a try. Everything has bias,but RT does a better job covering global stories than most American cable networks. Attacking the source is the weakest form of argument.

That entire article is a compilation of tweets from an anti-Tesla account. There is not even mention of doing a cursory attempt to ask Tesla for comment, or to further interview the Twitter user. And the article has no byline. That is what makes it poor quality journalism.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#74

Post by danso »

jokoon wrote: post #72

I don't really care if Tesla's account balance is ok, as long as it's selling something big and new, it's an improvement. Making electric cars is not just a business, money and accounting doesn't matter at this point. The money side for large projects like this, is an abstraction you cannot focus on. Negative account books will always exist where innovation happens. Forget the money, and try to think what gets made.…

Tesla is a public company. Accounting is very much an important thing, or are you suggesting it’s OK for them to cook the books as long as they do it for a good cause?

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#75

Post by misja111 »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #56

The way I see it, logistics aside, Tesla has awesome cars that are loved by those that manage to get one delivered, customers are actually lining up to buy them to the extent of paying just to get in line for that years ahead of time, and they are pretty much guaranteed to sell anything they ship for the foreseeable future. Better still most of their would be competitors are either not shipping at all right now, year…

If you believe that there is not much of competition for Tesla right now, you should read this: https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/10/17096608/tesla-jaguar-por...

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#77

Post by wpietri »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #56

The way I see it, logistics aside, Tesla has awesome cars that are loved by those that manage to get one delivered, customers are actually lining up to buy them to the extent of paying just to get in line for that years ahead of time, and they are pretty much guaranteed to sell anything they ship for the foreseeable future. Better still most of their would be competitors are either not shipping at all right now, year…

> they are pretty much close to the promised rate of 5K cars/week

They might hit that goal, but I'm very concerned about how they're getting there.

Toyota was the company that really figured out how to make good cars economically. They came out of Japan's post-war economic devastation to kick the asses of US carmakers. Their thinking was so alien to traditional approaches that Detroit spent decades trying to catch on and catch up. That depite Toyota doing their best to help their competitors get it. [1]

A pillar of Toyota's approach is patient, gradual, relentless improvement. There are a lot of signs that Tesla has never really warmed to that. Musk likes drama, action. But he's been overpromising and underdelivering for a while now. That he's sleeping at the factory might sound impressive, but to me it's a sign that he hasn't built an organization that can handle this.

Even if they hit the arbitrary 5K goal, I'm concerned they'll will reach it not by building a great, reliable process, but through the sort of rushing and corner-cutting that leaves them in bad shape for the future. That's very common in the tech world, and we pay for it with high tech debt and low long-term productivity. Perhaps he's doing the same thing here.

[1] e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#78

Post by davedx »

wpietri wrote: post #77
jillesvangurp wrote: post #56

The way I see it, logistics aside, Tesla has awesome cars that are loved by those that manage to get one delivered, customers are actually lining up to buy them to the extent of paying just to get in line for that years ahead of time, and they are pretty much guaranteed to sell anything they ship for the foreseeable future. Better still most of their would be competitors are either not shipping at all right now, year…

> they are pretty much close to the promised rate of 5K cars/week They might hit that goal, but I'm very concerned about how they're getting there. Toyota was the company that really figured out how to make good cars economically. They came out of Japan's post-war economic devastation to kick the asses of US carmakers. Their thinking was so alien to traditional approaches that Detroit spent decades trying to catch on…

> A pillar of Toyota's approach is patient, gradual, relentless improvement. There are a lot of signs that Tesla has never really warmed to that.

I guess it depends how you interpret the news and what Musk has said in shareholder meetings. At the last one he explicitly said that they continuously improve the process at Tesla.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#79

Post by bjl »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #56

The way I see it, logistics aside, Tesla has awesome cars that are loved by those that manage to get one delivered, customers are actually lining up to buy them to the extent of paying just to get in line for that years ahead of time, and they are pretty much guaranteed to sell anything they ship for the foreseeable future. Better still most of their would be competitors are either not shipping at all right now, year…

>The argument seems to be that it is simply impossible to produce the vehicles for Tesla.

This is a complete straw man. The argument is that its impossible for TSLA to produce cars in the volume necessary, at the margins necessary, in the time frame necessary to both pay down their massive amounts of debt and justify their enormous valuation. And, looking at the numbers, that seems like a pretty solid argument.

Re: Tesla opens the Model 3 reservation floodgates

#80

Post by davedx »

misja111 wrote: post #75
jillesvangurp wrote: post #56

The way I see it, logistics aside, Tesla has awesome cars that are loved by those that manage to get one delivered, customers are actually lining up to buy them to the extent of paying just to get in line for that years ahead of time, and they are pretty much guaranteed to sell anything they ship for the foreseeable future. Better still most of their would be competitors are either not shipping at all right now, year…

If you believe that there is not much of competition for Tesla right now, you should read this: https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/10/17096608/tesla-jaguar-por...

Not right now:

"One car alone doesn’t crowd the field. But Geneva was a showcase for a rush of coming EVs and hybrids."

The i-Pace is almost out. The others... aren't. I'm particularly skeptical of Audi's gigantic marketing machine.

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