101–110 of 211 posts
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>I don't think authoritarian regimes are good at fostering innovation. Werner Von Braun would disagree.
Germany also got rid of a lot of Jews and others that were undesirable for reasons not related to their political views. China is not doing that.
This is about as related to the comment above, as yours.
(By the way, the death toll of Mao’s cultural revolution clocks in around 50 million.)
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Well the vast majority of these kids would prefer to stay in the US. Clearly the solution to prevent them from taking their knowledge back to their home countries is to denigrate them politically and make it harder and more inconvenient for them to live and work here.
I would not agree with this. I went to an elite business school and my Chinese classmates all felt there was far more opportunity for them in China with an American education. They’re not stupid, they look at China and see an economy growing at 6-9% a year while the US is stuck at 1-2% and they know where the growth is for the medium-term. They also see a mature American economy that can be tough to crack even for na…
"U.S. GDP could top 4% in 2nd quarter, economists say"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-could-top-4-in-2nd-...
"Baotou in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region revised its estimated fiscal revenue in 2017 lower by nearly 50% in an annual work report"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-data/anothe...
"China fake data mask economic rebound"
https://www.ft.com/content/a9889330-f51c-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1...
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>I don't think authoritarian regimes are good at fostering innovation. Werner Von Braun would disagree.
On a mostly-unrelated note: Apparently big difference between the US and Germany in the nuclear race was not science but instead engineering. Fermi and Oppenheimer were useful to the US effort but Heisenberg probably had the intellectual firepower to do that for Germany. The REAL advances the US made were in chemical and metallurgical engineering at an industrial scale. Dealing with gaseous and liquid uranium and plu…
Notes from the ground here. My undergrad was in EE at an "elite" school - I can say definitively that ~50% of the MS/Ph.d. students in EE were from China (with the other 50% largely from India). They TA'd many of the graduate level courses and were the majority of the students taking high level semiconductor design courses that centered on fabrication and nanotechnology. China's short term goal is clearly to reach pa…
Well the vast majority of these kids would prefer to stay in the US. Clearly the solution to prevent them from taking their knowledge back to their home countries is to denigrate them politically and make it harder and more inconvenient for them to live and work here.
That's the old trade-off, and how America got the worlds' talent. But as lives in home countries get better, US would have to do more to make those immigrants feel like home. Or that trade-off would slowly stop making sense, and more people will go back to their home countries. This is not just happening with the Chinese.
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They don't need to be 'good' at anything, they just will move slower than an equivalent market based system but eventually they will get there. As long as the rest of the world out-innovates them they may not catch up but do not underestimate the power of over 1 billion people, especially not when a large number of them are very smart. Have a look at China 30 years ago and China today and tell me that that authoritar…
Actually I'm not so sure if much would change (w.r.t. performance) if they switched to a more democratic regime. In the end I were always a bit scared/reluctant about the US often touted ultimate justification for democratic capitalism that it is simply more efficient -- "Cultivate freedom -- after all, in the end it's just more efficient!". What if... it isn't? China is turning the tables on this argument quite a bi…
China is already #1 by GDP (PPP) with ~$23 trillions [1]. US is #2 with ~$19 trillions (numbers are from 2017). So here China already overtook US.
If you look at nominal GDP, then US is #1 with ~20 trillions and China is #2 with ~14 trillions [2]. With the government and political system that US currently has it will take very short amount of time for China to close this gap as well.
Another metric that shows that China will continue having growth in near future is human capital. China's school education system is better, they have number of pretty good universities, state supports STEM. Yes, they have a lot of problems, but they have good human capital to solve them.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...
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> The trend is just reverting to the mean. That's a lie. United States get 1M immigrants a year since 2000. There's over 37,000,000 legal immigrants in US. United States gets the creme of the crop from countries around the world. On the other hand, there were approximately 594,000 immigrants living in China in 2010, most from Asia. If you can live in US and make 300k-400k, you would do that in a heartbeat, vs living…
The current US government approach to immigrants, legal or otherwise, would seem designed to convince immigrants to go elsewhere. I think China will be fine given that it can simply shut down exports to the US if Trump's tariff pettiness starts to sting. Where, precisely, do you think your phones and computers are manufactured?
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> The trend is just reverting to the mean. That's a lie. United States get 1M immigrants a year since 2000. There's over 37,000,000 legal immigrants in US. United States gets the creme of the crop from countries around the world. On the other hand, there were approximately 594,000 immigrants living in China in 2010, most from Asia. If you can live in US and make 300k-400k, you would do that in a heartbeat, vs living…
The current US government approach to immigrants, legal or otherwise, would seem designed to convince immigrants to go elsewhere. I think China will be fine given that it can simply shut down exports to the US if Trump's tariff pettiness starts to sting. Where, precisely, do you think your phones and computers are manufactured?
Fixed it for ya. (I tease)
Having worked in China in the semiconductor industry, it really saddens me what the Chinese are trying to do. You simply cannot out innovate 4 decades of work in a few years no matter how much money you throw at it. Also, China has a branding problem and it is only going to get worse. They can make short term progress but it takes a long time to build a great brand.
Stealing IP mostly helps manufacturing, It doesn't really help innovation. If they want to build up their semiconductor industry they need to steal the people who are creating IP, which is kinda the opposite of what is happening. the culture that creates new tech is something that china can't steal and it can't replicate it without giving up authoritarian rule.
One of the lies we were told was that only manufacturing and other low-value-add activities would be going offshore, all the high-pay and -prestige design work would be staying in the West.
But Japan showed in the 80s and 90s that once a country has achieved a level of manufacturing, design comes naturally and quality comes naturally, and the hollowing out of the West shows that once you lose manufacturing, your design capabilities stagnate. And now the West is squandering what little it has left making the same mistake with China.
We even say it on this site often enough, ideas are cheap, executing is hard. Manufacturing is executing.
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Germany also got rid of a lot of Jews and others that were undesirable for reasons not related to their political views. China is not doing that.
My car has 18” rims with Continental tires. This is about as related to the comment above, as yours. (By the way, the death toll of Mao’s cultural revolution clocks in around 50 million.)
>(By the way, the death toll of Mao’s cultural revolution clocks in around 50 million.)
The 1970s wants its news back. China isn't doing that sort of thing anymore.
*There's of course a lot more to the Holocaust than "wasting human resources". Please read this in good faith.
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I would not agree with this. I went to an elite business school and my Chinese classmates all felt there was far more opportunity for them in China with an American education. They’re not stupid, they look at China and see an economy growing at 6-9% a year while the US is stuck at 1-2% and they know where the growth is for the medium-term. They also see a mature American economy that can be tough to crack even for na…
They are stupid, if they didn't know about China's fake gdp for the past several years. "U.S. GDP could top 4% in 2nd quarter, economists say" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-could-top-4-in-2nd-... "Baotou in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region revised its estimated fiscal revenue in 2017 lower by nearly 50% in an annual work report" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-data/anothe... "China…
Also weighing heavily on people are family and cultural conflict issues. But anecdotally I can say that the majority of Chinese students don’t want to stay in the US for a variety of reasons; and that many feel their prospects are at least as good in China as the US.