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Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

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91–100 of 211 posts

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the same culture that sends tidal waves of students to American universities to earn Ph.Ds, and because of our piss-poor immigration system, most of them have to go back home with all of that valuable education and use it in China or India or wherever instead of the USA.

The U.S. helps to educate and provide opportunity to people, regardless of national origin - regardless of the arbitrary, invisible lines on a map, drawn by the powerful, in which they were born. Partly as a result, the greatest economic miracle in history has occurred since WWII (and especially since the end of the Cold War), with hundreds of millions of people pulled from millennia of hopeless, abject poverty. Anot…

What an amazing and powerful comment.

We should all care about other humans in this world.

(That said, not all governments care about other humans, and I tend to agree with crchang below.)

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with your opinions and your characterization of my argument. I didn't say people will not think about technological problems. Despite the incredible amount of good the party has done for the people of china they are still an authoritarian regime. I don't think authoritarian regimes are good at fostering innovation.

They don't need to be 'good' at anything, they just will move slower than an equivalent market based system but eventually they will get there. As long as the rest of the world out-innovates them they may not catch up but do not underestimate the power of over 1 billion people, especially not when a large number of them are very smart. Have a look at China 30 years ago and China today and tell me that that authoritar…

>isn't going full-bore on a market economy and democratic system

No that's the dumbest thing china could do. They would lose their protectionist advantages like the great firewall and currency manipulation which resulted in decade long trade surpluses. China is doing the "walmart strategy" of price dumping and killing off competitors but on a global scale. On top of that stealing IP is a very cheap way to build manufacturing capability while avoiding expensive R&D costs. Homegrown innovation is only required if they no longer have competitors.

Trump's decision to implement tariff is a very conservative strategy to even out the imbalance of protectionism between china and us but unfortunately the execution of the tariffs is terrible, he's targeting components instead of finished goods and he is also targeting allies that are not excessively abusing the trade imbalance.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#93
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm mostly with everything but the second half of your first sentence here, but unfortunately that embeds such a huge misconception that the net value of your comment could very well be negative unless you acknowledge and clarify/correct this. The boundaries of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc. are "arbitrary [and] invisible" to some extent, and obviously drawn by the powerful. But "the current set of lines are…

> This is particularly clear for India, which is a natural US ally. India has only become a natural US ally fairly recently... And largely due to the 'frenemy' status that the US has with China. (Which in itself is a consequence of the 'frenemy' status that the USSR had with China... It's turtles all the way down.) Through much of the Cold War, US-India relationships were very, very cool. Instead, they had good relat…

nation-state alignment

What has made the past 50 years so peaceful (amongst the big powers, at least) is that nations that share values have aligned. France and Germany and the US and Australia share a philosophy of governance, not just a short term realpolitik goal. (Of course sharing a language helps too: Canada, UK, US, Aus, NZ are tight for that reason in good part)

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. helps to educate and provide opportunity to people, regardless of national origin - regardless of the arbitrary, invisible lines on a map, drawn by the powerful, in which they were born. Partly as a result, the greatest economic miracle in history has occurred since WWII (and especially since the end of the Cold War), with hundreds of millions of people pulled from millennia of hopeless, abject poverty. Anot…

Your comment is excellent, and I agree with everything you say. I will retort, however, that we Americans should not take our technological dominance for granted, just as a precious generation of carmakers and related industries had to learn what happens when foreign competitors (especially with government support) eat up domestic markets that companies like Ford and GM thought belonged to them forever. I’m not sugge…

+1 for focus on values. America itself would do well to refocus itself internally on its long-held values. (To do that, it needs to fix the huge right-wing propaganda apparatus in America, beginning with right wing radio. You can’t understand modern America until you listen to Limbaugh for a few hours. But that’s another story. Americans have to start thinking again about what their values are.)

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A market based system and an authoritarian regime are not mutually exclusive. Singapore is very capitalistic but its political structure is basically a dictatorship. The same family has ruled it from the beginning. The Singapore model is very attractive to other countries who want to emulate the same. In fact, when Deng Xiaoping opened up China, Singapore was one of those places he visited and studied.

It’s good if you find the right family. But this is exactly what Tolkien was saying in Lord of the Rkngs with the ring metaphor (Tolkien’s work was a big allegory on European World Wars and politics). Tolkien said Gandalf couldn’t take the ring because he would be corrupted by power and become an evil autocrat. There are few rulers who can assume dictatoral power and not use it for ill. And once a family has autocrat…

In violent agreement with you and I love your comparison! This is precisely the trap the Chinese are falling into as they reverse their democratization and remove the guardrails put in place after Mao. People are attracted by the "glamour" of a strong authoritarian and the exercise of power to quickly get things done. But the moment that power falls into the hand of the corrupt, it's hell for everyone. We see this over and over in Chinese history: this is the heart of the dynastic cycle. China has tried to remedy this by trying to pound education into the heads of their rulers and have good advisers/ruling elite around the rulers. However, you can only go so far with that. The repeated rise and fall of Chinese dynasty is a manifestation of these failures.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#96

Notes from the ground here. My undergrad was in EE at an "elite" school - I can say definitively that ~50% of the MS/Ph.d. students in EE were from China (with the other 50% largely from India). They TA'd many of the graduate level courses and were the majority of the students taking high level semiconductor design courses that centered on fabrication and nanotechnology. China's short term goal is clearly to reach pa…

Well the vast majority of these kids would prefer to stay in the US. Clearly the solution to prevent them from taking their knowledge back to their home countries is to denigrate them politically and make it harder and more inconvenient for them to live and work here.

I would not agree with this. I went to an elite business school and my Chinese classmates all felt there was far more opportunity for them in China with an American education.

They’re not stupid, they look at China and see an economy growing at 6-9% a year while the US is stuck at 1-2% and they know where the growth is for the medium-term. They also see a mature American economy that can be tough to crack even for native white citizens, so its not hard to see how their chances of long-term success are much higher in China than in the US.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#97
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with your opinions and your characterization of my argument. I didn't say people will not think about technological problems. Despite the incredible amount of good the party has done for the people of china they are still an authoritarian regime. I don't think authoritarian regimes are good at fostering innovation.

>I don't think authoritarian regimes are good at fostering innovation. Werner Von Braun would disagree.

Germany also got rid of a lot of Jews and others that were undesirable for reasons not related to their political views. China is not doing that.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#98
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Throughout the 20th century, the United States benefited greatly from this sort of knowledge drain, from war-torn Europe, and from the Soviet sphere of influence. The trend is just reverting to the mean.

> The trend is just reverting to the mean. That's a lie. United States get 1M immigrants a year since 2000. There's over 37,000,000 legal immigrants in US. United States gets the creme of the crop from countries around the world. On the other hand, there were approximately 594,000 immigrants living in China in 2010, most from Asia. If you can live in US and make 300k-400k, you would do that in a heartbeat, vs living…

The current US government approach to immigrants, legal or otherwise, would seem designed to convince immigrants to go elsewhere.

I think China will be fine given that it can simply shut down exports to the US if T​r​u​m​p's tariff pettiness starts to sting. Where, precisely, do you think your phones and computers are manufactured?

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#99

Notes from the ground here. My undergrad was in EE at an "elite" school - I can say definitively that ~50% of the MS/Ph.d. students in EE were from China (with the other 50% largely from India). They TA'd many of the graduate level courses and were the majority of the students taking high level semiconductor design courses that centered on fabrication and nanotechnology. China's short term goal is clearly to reach pa…

Too late.

China dominates in the 'jelly bean[1]' chip business. This was the bread an butter for the dozen semiconductor shops in the Bay Area during the 70's through the early naughts. As fabs shut down they became 'fabless' and had their work shipped out to TSMC. Now they exist as a genre in China in much greater numbers than they do here. Companies that will make a couple of wafers of USB + ADC + random logic kinds of things.

And the innovation never comes from the chip companies, it comes from companies that are building the products. They go to the chip companies and say "Can you make a chip that does this?" and then a new jelly bean chip is born and if that product gets traction everyone decides to make one with their own bit of spin.

What is unique to the Chinese scene is that there are thousands of minute variations rather than any sort of ordered discipline. Transistors are free at the jelly bean chip level so there is no incentive to re-use or save on chips.

ARM has become the defacto microprocessor architecture because, in part, ARM will license it to anyone.

In the US all of these folks have coalesced into a few mega companies (TI, NXP, Microchip, Maxim) which don't have much in the way of competition locally. So innovation stops because conservative business practices rule.

This really became clear to me when I started perusing datasheet sites for the Chinese market and realizing there are hundreds if not thousands of chips for which there is no English data sheet. This is a complete reverse from the last century when nearly every data sheet was in English and getting a Chinese version was a challenge.

[1] Jelly Bean chips are those that are made in batches of 1 - 10 million with a set of functions that are fairly specific to their application.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#100
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People write this glibly without understanding history. Soviet Russia made great leaps in science and technology where it was a national priority. You can have academic freedom in most scientific disciplines without the political freedom to criticize the government.

Have any examples? As far as I am aware, the USSR only beat USA at getting into space first.

The NK-33 engines from 1960s and 70s Soviet Union were used by American space companies as late as 2014. These were just stuck and forgotten in a Russian warehouse. Doubtlessly other Soviet technology has also been lost and awaits rediscovery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NK-33

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