New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says • Hacker News Board

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#61

Post by simion314 » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:27 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #49

nickik wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

n=1

The sample size is irrelevant. The NTSB report reveals that the Tesla crashed into the median not because there was a glitch, but because the design of the system fundamentally wasn't capable of avoiding it. Tesla can't stop in response to stationary objects (likely because it can't tell the background apart from real obstacles and enabling breaking would cause too many false positives). That design is only safe if y…

What seems weird to me is that when the car would get closer to the object the probability that a crash would happen should increase, Tesla could not get a high enough crash probability at all, even from 1 meter or 1 millisecond before impact and continued to accelerate.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#62

Post by simion314 » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:33 PM UTC

ageofwant wrote: post #54

JackCh wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know they disagree with me, they have multiple reasons to bury their heads in the sand. Admitting they were wrong would be a PR disaster, it would probably hurt Elon's ego, and a recall to retrofit LIDAR would probably be extremely costly. But if you talk with the leading experts in the field of car automation, the research groups who are actually making it work to some degree today, they are all using LIDAR. Furth…

No. LIDAR has its place, but it certainly a tech that has seen its day. Integrated sensor arrays consisting of multiple cameras and image processors can build more accurate situational awareness pictures faster. And to imply that Tesla's automation assist is not working is ridiculous.

Are Tesla cars equipped with enough processing power? I agree that with some good cameras a ton of processing power and a super AI you could avoid crashes, I mean Tesla hit a fire Truck, the cameras would have been enough to detect the obstacle but the AI or the hardware needed to process the camera output is years behind what it should be.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#63

Post by manyoso » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:41 PM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #41

manyoso wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly! It is absurd how people hear Elon Musk say, "we will begin to enable full self-driving features..." and then conclude that Elon Musk was talking about full self-driving features. They are all just Tesla haters!

He said “full self driving features”, not “full self driving”. With the word “features” he refers to components of a system that will offer self driving, but not the whole system yet. These features could be better self parking, or traffic sign recognition, or the long talked about feature of changing between freeways autonomous.

Exactly! Only Tesla Haters would think that "full self-driving features" would refer to features that enable fully autonomous driving... every common sense consumer out there will clearly understand that when Elon Musk says full self-driving features he clearly is referring to parallel parking helpers and such. All these Tesla Haters would have us think that Elon has a habit of going around raising unreasonable expectations through grand pronouncements when he's clearly just trying to tell consumers that soon they won't have to worry about parallel parking their cars!

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#64

Post by drusepth » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:42 PM UTC

simion314 wrote: post #61

rayiner wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sample size is irrelevant. The NTSB report reveals that the Tesla crashed into the median not because there was a glitch, but because the design of the system fundamentally wasn't capable of avoiding it. Tesla can't stop in response to stationary objects (likely because it can't tell the background apart from real obstacles and enabling breaking would cause too many false positives). That design is only safe if y…

What seems weird to me is that when the car would get closer to the object the probability that a crash would happen should increase, Tesla could not get a high enough crash probability at all, even from 1 meter or 1 millisecond before impact and continued to accelerate.

There was a good analysis of this elsewhere that effectively boiled down to how the tech being used (I want to say LIDAR, but it could have been lasers or cameras) had evolved. It's apparently really good at detecting how fast other objects are going, and really bad (or, at least, not designed well in its current state) at detecting stationary objects, since it's primarily been trained to ignore the millions of stationary objects all around it throughout a drive to be able to focus on moving objects (cars, pedestrians, bicyclists, etc).

Apparently, moving and stationary objects are treated differently, and both have to be intentionally trained, and that this was a case of seeing the stationary object but ignoring it, just like it does with most other stationary objects that aren't in the road. I'm not technical enough to go into specifics, but that's the gist from the article I saw-but-can-no-longer-find.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#65

Post by sunstone » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:46 PM UTC

It seems like there's quite a difference in self driving technology between highspeed and lowspeed ability. Generally low speed seems to be pretty safe. But apparently all high speed systems have the "blind spot" of having to disregard stationary objects in front of them due to false positives from overhead highway signs, flyovers etc.

So when there's a broken car in your lane on the freeway the autodriver will just slam right into it.

I doubt the public will accept any system that has this kind of inherent flaw because it seems just insane to a human driver. This will probably have to be fixed before highway driving is approved but city driving, with a speed limit, might happen much sooner.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#66

Post by JackCh » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:46 PM UTC

drusepth wrote: post #64

simion314 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What seems weird to me is that when the car would get closer to the object the probability that a crash would happen should increase, Tesla could not get a high enough crash probability at all, even from 1 meter or 1 millisecond before impact and continued to accelerate.

There was a good analysis of this elsewhere that effectively boiled down to how the tech being used (I want to say LIDAR, but it could have been lasers or cameras) had evolved. It's apparently really good at detecting how fast other objects are going, and really bad (or, at least, not designed well in its current state) at detecting stationary objects, since it's primarily been trained to ignore the millions of stati…

You're mistaken, that was about radar not LIDAR. Telsa cars have no LIDAR.

The radars in use have poor angular resolution meaning they can tell if something is moving toward or away from it, but cannot tell where that object is. Since driving down the road will necessarily involve many objects on the side of the road, but the radar apparently can't tell where they are because of it's poor angular resolution, the 'solution' was apparently to filter out everything moving towards the sensor at the car's current speed (e.g, all stationary objects.)

It's unclear to me what if any circumstances will cause the emergency breaking system in a Tesla to fire.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#67

Post by manyoso » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:48 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #50

avelis wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe Elon has stated it should not be necessary. However, he also tweetes if his compsny comes to find there is no other way without Lidar they will figure a way to upgrade the hardware at no additional cost to those who have prepaid for it.

There's no way to update the Model X for LIDAR. It's structurally incapable of supporting any of the existing LIDAR systems in production or currently in development. The same could arguably be said for the Model S, due to the front monopane windshield. Even if these vehicles could be modified to support LIDAR systems, the modifications alone would likely cost upwards of $10,000 per vehicle, not including the cost of…

Then all Musk needs to do is not allow Tesla to "come to find" out that LIDAR is necessary before the technology has advanced to such a degree that they can retrofit the Model X and to do so when the cost has come down sufficiently to afford it.

Which is what he's currently doing. When they do finally admit that LIDAR is necessary, Elon will play the "no body could have foreseen this situation and we were operating under the best knowledge at the time" card.

He's bullshit all the way down.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#68

Post by drusepth » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:52 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #25

piker wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The caveat ("begin to enable") doesn't change things. You might be at the beginning of pregnancy, but you're fully pregnant. That would be correct if the Musk quote said they would "begin to enable" full autonomy . That assertion is distinguishable from beginning to enable features related to autonomy.

You're changing the meaning by adding the word "related." Say Microsoft stated it would "will begin to enable full 8K features" on the XBox One. That would mean that something would be in 8K--maybe just for movies but not games. It wouldn't mean "features related to 8K" but not a actually being able to display 8K video anywhere.

If Microsoft said they'd begin to enable 8K on the Xbox One and released a feature that let you view 8K images (with the assumption that more features will come in the future), that'd be completely reasonable.

If Tesla said they'd begin to enable self-driving functionality and released a feature that you complete some part of that like parking for you, or bringing your car up front (with the assumption that more features will come in the future), that'd also be completely reasonable.

I don't understand the jump between "beginning to enable full self-driving features" and turning on full autonomy in any near future. Obviously, Tesla has been releasing functionality piecemeal when they can; see: "features".

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#69

Post by sunstone » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:53 PM UTC

ggg9990 wrote: post #21

In the last 12 months it’s become clear that Musk relies on the same defensive self-aggrandizing bluster that makes Trump so ridiculous. Quite a quick trip down from demigod for him.

Given that Musk and his companies have accomplished some amazing things. Did you see the simultaneous rocket landings?

So 'self aggrandizing bluster' may not be the phrase the you're looking for. How about 'low cost, highly effective guerilla marketing' based on past performance?

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#70

Post by _ph_ » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:57 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #58

itsslo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If say, Tesla would now be able to parallel park all the time without human intervention or oversight, would that not be considered a fully autonomous feature?

So long as it could park without any human oversight, yes, I'd consider that to fit Musk's statement. But will Tesla be even there by August?

Yes, they will be. Q2 is going to be negative again, but Tesla has enough cash left for that. From all announcements it looks as if Tesla has made all investments needed into the Model 3 production to reach the 5k cars/week production goal at the end of the month. At that rate Tesla should be slightly profitable.