New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says • Hacker News Board

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#41

Post by _ph_ » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 3:55 PM UTC

manyoso wrote: post #35

_ph_ wrote: post #20

To make it clear: the headline is completely wrong. Musk only announced a step towards autonomy which could be anything, but certainly not full autonomy. It could be as simple as extended self parking. From a software engineering perspective it is an interesting announcement. With all the obvious limitations of the current autopilot, Tesla must have been working on a very different package for full autonomy - we migh…

Exactly! It is absurd how people hear Elon Musk say, "we will begin to enable full self-driving features..." and then conclude that Elon Musk was talking about full self-driving features. They are all just Tesla haters!

He said “full self driving features”, not “full self driving”. With the word “features” he refers to components of a system that will offer self driving, but not the whole system yet. These features could be better self parking, or traffic sign recognition, or the long talked about feature of changing between freeways autonomous.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#42

Post by melling » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 3:55 PM UTC

sushibowl wrote: post #32

JackCh wrote: post #29

When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their website: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." ...but without LIDAR that simply isn't true. Either the accident…

Tesla disagrees with you on this, they are still operating with the belief that cameras will eventually be superior and cheaper compared to LIDAR. https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-s...

Well, that’s not what the article says:

“Musk reiterated his dislike of LIDAR and defended Tesla’s strategy of achieving “full autonomy” using only cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors.”

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#43

Post by gamblor956 » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 3:56 PM UTC

sushibowl wrote: post #32

JackCh wrote: post #29

When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their website: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." ...but without LIDAR that simply isn't true. Either the accident…

Tesla disagrees with you on this, they are still operating with the belief that cameras will eventually be superior and cheaper compared to LIDAR. https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-s...

At this point, nobody really cares what Tesla (or specifically, Musk) thinks about the virtues of cameras vs LIDAR.

Autopilot's can't even sense stationary objects in front of the car. The most basic task of a self-driving system. Getting visual AI up to that point will require computing technology significantly more capable than what Tesla has on any of its vehicle--something on the order of two or three CPU/GPU generations more capable.

By the time the visual processing hardware is up to the task, the cost of a LIDAR system will no longer be the most expensive part of the car. Hell, there are already systems in pre-production that now cost less than $2000/sensor, before economies of scale.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#44

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 3:58 PM UTC

nickik wrote: post #37

rayiner wrote: post #10

> "To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features," he said. Running cars into medians at 70 mph is the result of "focus[ing] entirely on safety?" Now they're going to focus on other things, besides safety?

n=1

[deleted]

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#45

Post by ageofwant » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 3:58 PM UTC

JackCh wrote: post #29

When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their website: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." ...but without LIDAR that simply isn't true. Either the accident…

LIDAR is not magic. You can get full situational awareness with boring old video these days. LIDAR was just easier to characterize back in the day before gigahertz ASIC AD video processors.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#46

Post by r00fus » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:00 PM UTC

sushibowl wrote: post #32

JackCh wrote: post #29

When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their website: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." ...but without LIDAR that simply isn't true. Either the accident…

Tesla disagrees with you on this, they are still operating with the belief that cameras will eventually be superior and cheaper compared to LIDAR. https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-s...

They're going to say that until they go full-LIDAR having purchased a guarantee from major suppliers they can later vertically integrate.

Just like Apple did with so many things.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#47

Post by Shivetya » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:02 PM UTC

sushibowl wrote: post #32

JackCh wrote: post #29

When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their website: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." ...but without LIDAR that simply isn't true. Either the accident…

Tesla disagrees with you on this, they are still operating with the belief that cameras will eventually be superior and cheaper compared to LIDAR. https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-s...

I really am of the belief he talked Tesla into a corner here. While LIDAR is bulkier it offers so much beyond RADAR and cameras that its not truly up for debate. I could ramble but this article Wired[1] does it properly

As for today's announcement I don't know what to say other than maybe they are trying to get in front of something they know is coming down from the NHTSA. I certainly hope they don't try to bluff them

https://www.wired.com/story/lidar-self-driving-cars-luminar-...

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#48

Post by panarky » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:02 PM UTC

Symmetry wrote: post #34

I'm worried he's talking about going from what the NHTSA calls level 2 to level 3 autonomy[1], where the car is capable of navigating all the way to the destination but the driver has to remain alert for potential dangerous situations. That's probably an even worse idea in terms of people actually complying than the existing level 2 autonomy and I think Waymo is absolutely right in trying to skip straight to level 4/…

We need to work with some real numbers.

In the US there are about 1.2 fatalities per 100 million miles driven [0].

About 19 months ago, Tesla said their cars logged 1.3 billion miles on autopilot [1].

I'd guess that autopilot number has at least doubled by now.

So if there have been far fewer than 26 people killed by autopilot, then it's already saving lives.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...

[1] https://electrek.co/2016/11/13/tesla-autopilot-billion-miles...

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#49

Post by rayiner » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:02 PM UTC

nickik wrote: post #37

rayiner wrote: post #10

> "To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features," he said. Running cars into medians at 70 mph is the result of "focus[ing] entirely on safety?" Now they're going to focus on other things, besides safety?

n=1

The sample size is irrelevant. The NTSB report reveals that the Tesla crashed into the median not because there was a glitch, but because the design of the system fundamentally wasn't capable of avoiding it. Tesla can't stop in response to stationary objects (likely because it can't tell the background apart from real obstacles and enabling breaking would cause too many false positives). That design is only safe if you have a human in the loop to do what the computer cannot do.

Re: New Tesla software to offer 'full' autonomy, Musk says

#50

Post by gamblor956 » Mon, Jun 11, 2018, 4:02 PM UTC

avelis wrote: post #38

JackCh wrote: post #29

When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their website: > "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." ...but without LIDAR that simply isn't true. Either the accident…

I believe Elon has stated it should not be necessary. However, he also tweetes if his compsny comes to find there is no other way without Lidar they will figure a way to upgrade the hardware at no additional cost to those who have prepaid for it.

There's no way to update the Model X for LIDAR. It's structurally incapable of supporting any of the existing LIDAR systems in production or currently in development. The same could arguably be said for the Model S, due to the front monopane windshield.

Even if these vehicles could be modified to support LIDAR systems, the modifications alone would likely cost upwards of $10,000 per vehicle, not including the cost of the LIDAR system (currently $20,000 for cheapest system offering 360 coverage). Those costs would bankrupt Tesla.

At some point, Musk needs to learn to keep his mouth shut. A sales person making these types of claims can be disregarded on the grounds that a sales person may not have the authority to bind the company. But if the CEO says the same things, customers who purchase cars based on the CEO's representations can definitely sue the company for failure to deliver promised goods.