US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level • Hacker News Board

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#221

Post by maxk42 » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:54 PM UTC

gowld wrote: post #190

maxk42 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for m…

If things don't go awry, you'll be paying her half of your post-tax income, and vice versa. So what's the concern about paying a quarter? Since you say you can afford it anyway, as you make "quite a lot of money", and millions of people with much less raise children, it seems as trough you don't want desperately want to have kids, but perhaps you like the idea but don't want to spend money on other people in your fam…

> If things don't go awry, you'll be paying her half of your post-tax income

I have no intention of getting married, so: No I won't.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#222

Post by tathougies » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:56 PM UTC

xevb3k wrote: post #206

tathougies wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fathers often still don’t involve themselves in childcare. Are people really living in marriages where the husband does nothing? This is a genuine question. My family is Indian, and I grew up in America, but from what I remember, my mom and dad spent most of their time taking care of my brother and I, whether that be by cooking, paying bills, cleaning the house, taking care of the car, driving us around, etc. Our g…

I’ve seen it happen a lot. Father works (particularly in a tech context often earns much more than mother). Uses this fact to exercise financial control and states that their “equal contribution” is financial support. Meanwhile, at least in early years, mother spends 16 hours a day looking after kids. Essentially the father gets some downtime, but mother has to look after kids constantly (maybe gets a little help but…

> Father works (particularly in a tech context often earns much more than mother). Uses this fact to exercise financial control and states that their “equal contribution” is financial support.

Now that you mention it, I've seen this in some friends and colleagues, working in the tech sector. I always chocked it up to tech workers often being socially atypcial. Didn't realize it was considered normal. Just doesn't match my experience with my parents, or the adults I grew up with (who granted, were mostly vietnamese and phillipino due to where we lived), and I don't see it in my wife's family (irish). My dad always earned more than my mom, but when he came home, he would always be the one to do things with my brother and I and leave my mom to rest. Moreover, my mom was always so thankful that she no longer had to work.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#223

Post by a_tractor » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:56 PM UTC

panic wrote: post #107

Karishma1234 wrote: post #36

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

> Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields. How would the color of someone's skin affect their skills in these fields?

This is not really an answer to your question, but you do know that race is more than just the color of someone's skin, right?

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#224

Post by dionidium » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:57 PM UTC

wetpaws wrote: post #90

jacquesm wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you could of course move but in the end it is mostly about priorities.

Going from expensive area with good job market to slightly less expensive area with little to no job market. Rrright.

A version of your comment is posted in response to every suggestion that somebody leave expensive coastal areas. One wonders what the heck you think is going on in the rest of the country.

There are jobs in other cities. The idea that there is "little or no job market" outside of NYC and San Francisco is -- I'm sorry, there's no other way to say it -- absurd. The fact that you forward this claim with such smugness -- "rrrright" -- makes it all the more baffling.

Where are you getting these ideas? Click-bait articles about the Rust Belt?

A few figures on median income. These cities were chosen at random:

- Cincinnati-Middletown Ohio metro area was $60,260

- Indianapolis-Carmel Indiana metro area was $56,750

- Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro-Franklin Tennessee metro area was $60,030

Compare to:

- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Washington metro area was $78,612

- San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metro Area was $96,677

- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area was $71,897

So, look, San Francisco is an outlier, even by the standards of big, growing cities with lots of jobs. But look at those others. The median income in Cincinnati is about $10k less than in New York City.

Do you think the cost of living in New York City is only about $10k more per year than in Cincinnati? Of course not.

The cost of living differences between the cities in that first group and the cities in the second group far, far, far outpace those earnings differences. So, you're wrong on both counts. The cheaper cities aren't "slightly less expensive;" they are vastly less expensive.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#225

Post by _fq4v » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:57 PM UTC

drspacemonkey wrote: post #202

tathougies wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fathers often still don’t involve themselves in childcare. Are people really living in marriages where the husband does nothing? This is a genuine question. My family is Indian, and I grew up in America, but from what I remember, my mom and dad spent most of their time taking care of my brother and I, whether that be by cooking, paying bills, cleaning the house, taking care of the car, driving us around, etc. Our g…

Yes. A friend of mine is very much an uninvolved father. His wife handles all the child-rearing and housekeeping, while he plays videogames, often while drinking. I've mentioned to him that he should probably be more involved, but it's not my place or responsibility to tell him he's failing as a husband and father. In his defence, he's still a better father than his own father ever was, but that's not exactly a high…

We know a couple like this, and if I were the wife, I'd leave him. He's a nice guy and all, but he's utterly useless, and I've told him that a few times. I'm just a friend though, and his wife puts up with him. I just don't get it -- she's a smart, educated woman, and he's quite educated as well, but I don't see how a grown adult can act like he does. Their marriage feels abnormal though, and I can see it breaking apart in the future. Perhaps this is a reason why divorce rates are up too, if this behavior is considered normal.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#226

Post by avar » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:59 PM UTC

mhneu wrote: post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

    > With the recent reduction in immigration[...]

What's your source for that? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I wasn't able to find any year-by-year statistics for US immigration.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#227

Post by maxk42 » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:59 PM UTC

robotrout wrote: post #193

maxk42 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for m…

Right now, children is sort of theoretical for you. That's fine, as it's like that for everybody. Once you have them and have fallen in love with them, you'll find that their happiness is worth working things out with their mother, rather than breaking up. If you can't man up enough to put up with her shit (assuming there is any) and you do break up, the money will be going to your kids, who you'll love, and giving t…

I make a quarter million dollars.

No, that money certainly won't be going to my kids. It's utterly ridiculous to pay that amount of money for child support for one child.

This is essentially incentivizing my partner to break up with me: "Hey , if you dump him, you get a $60k check for the rest of your life for sitting on your ass." Incidentally, this is far more than she has ever made.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#228

Post by jpao79 » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:59 PM UTC

cheeseomlit wrote: post #98

dv_dt wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America integrated large immigrant waves in it's past, and I doubt anyone would say the Italians, or Irish, or other minorities were not integrated today. Time bridges cultures, and we're the better for it.

Italians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.

This movie, Gangs of New York, by Martin Scorsese about New York City during a period of Irish immigration might suggest otherwise. I recall attempting to watch it when it came out on DVD but it was too violent for a Friday night: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gangs_of_New_York#Historical_a...

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#229

Post by dorchadas » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:59 PM UTC

simmanian wrote: post #106

loggedinmyphone wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe did the same in importing large numbers of Muslim laborers after WW2. The hope was that they'd either make their money and go back home, or culturally integrate. Many observers will say that neither happened and there's now a difficult social problem in many countries like France.

>Many observers will say that neither happened And do you agree with the observers? If so, do you have sources to back up the claim? I ask you not to accuse you of anything but because I watched a Kurzgesagt video a while back saying most of the immigrants have integrated well over the next few generations.

Exactly. Over the next few generations. Everyone was immediate integration, which doesn't happen in most places AFAIK. Even in America, first generation immigrants and refugees stand apart in some places. But their kids fit in well, and are fairly American, though they still possibly speak the heritage language and such. By grandkids though you couldn't tell them apart from normal 'integrated' Americans apart from the accent of their grandparents.

It just takes time to integrate, and I'd say those who argue that Europe isn't integrated are looking st more recent immigrants, or older generations, and not the ones who would most likely be integrated already.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#230

Post by tathougies » Thu, May 17, 2018, 9:00 PM UTC

annywhey wrote: post #181

tathougies wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fathers often still don’t involve themselves in childcare. Are people really living in marriages where the husband does nothing? This is a genuine question. My family is Indian, and I grew up in America, but from what I remember, my mom and dad spent most of their time taking care of my brother and I, whether that be by cooking, paying bills, cleaning the house, taking care of the car, driving us around, etc. Our g…

The stereotypical American setup is: Man helps by going to job, paying bills, doing "male-coded" household work(handyman, auto maintenance, etc.). Woman does "female-coded" equivalents(cooking, cleaning, shopping). In my own family the actual way it worked out was that both of them indulged their fixations and muddled through the rest without much discipline or mutual encouragement. This was imperfect but mostly work…

Isn't male coded housework quite difficult? My dad did a lot of projects on our house that were quite necessary to prevent things like mold growth or to make it easier to live there. He made my brother and I help a lot, and based on my memories, it was not easy work. We had this shower that needed sealing quite often, and from my memories, it was back breaking work. Often times, I would hope my mom would ask me to help her peel carrots, fold clothes, or something easier, much to my dad's chagrin.