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Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

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Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#141
post #62
post #61

"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…

Heisenbugs in AI are also interesting. As computers approach sentience, it will become progressively harder to explain their behavior. Why did you eat a bagel instead of eggs this morning? Usually there isn't a scientific answer. In the present, AI models are already so complicated that it seems hard to get reproducible diagnostic results, short of just saving every frame of data that the car's sensors pick up. And f…

Id be willing to take a 1k bet that computers won’t approach sentience in our lifetime. Don’t believe the AI hype train, there hasn’t been a real breakthrough. Just more accurate versions of the same (dumb) classifiers.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#142
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a plane crashes, the survival rate is pretty low. Most likely everyone on the plane is dead. People get into car accidents often enough to feel that crashing one's car rarely leads to death. Walter probably felt safe enough to use autopilot knowing that if the car crashed, he could still walk away from it.

Completely untrue. The survival rate for plane crashes is extremely high.[1] 1. https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NTSB_releases...

Most of those crashes probably on the ground though?

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#143
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heisenbugs in AI are also interesting. As computers approach sentience, it will become progressively harder to explain their behavior. Why did you eat a bagel instead of eggs this morning? Usually there isn't a scientific answer. In the present, AI models are already so complicated that it seems hard to get reproducible diagnostic results, short of just saving every frame of data that the car's sensors pick up. And f…

Id be willing to take a 1k bet that computers won’t approach sentience in our lifetime. Don’t believe the AI hype train, there hasn’t been a real breakthrough. Just more accurate versions of the same (dumb) classifiers.

Why do you think that humans are not just even more accurate versions of the same types of classifiers?

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#144
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heisenbugs in AI are also interesting. As computers approach sentience, it will become progressively harder to explain their behavior. Why did you eat a bagel instead of eggs this morning? Usually there isn't a scientific answer. In the present, AI models are already so complicated that it seems hard to get reproducible diagnostic results, short of just saving every frame of data that the car's sensors pick up. And f…

Aren't many AI methods also inherently probabilistic? That would make it by definition impossible to definitively explain any particular behavior.

What do you mean by probabilistic? If you mean that the models takes input and outputs one or more labeled probabilities (e.g. “90% confidence the input photo is a dog, 10% confidence the input photo is a cat), then yes, I believe that many AI systems work this way. If you mean random, in the sense that the system may return different results given the exact same inputs, then in not sure if there are AI systems that work that way.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#145
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The operator of a vehicle is responsible for operating it." But he wasn't operating it.

But he should have been. Tesla's cars are not self-driving. The automated driving features are supposed to assist the driver, not replace.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#146
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heisenbugs in AI are also interesting. As computers approach sentience, it will become progressively harder to explain their behavior. Why did you eat a bagel instead of eggs this morning? Usually there isn't a scientific answer. In the present, AI models are already so complicated that it seems hard to get reproducible diagnostic results, short of just saving every frame of data that the car's sensors pick up. And f…

Aren't many AI methods also inherently probabilistic? That would make it by definition impossible to definitively explain any particular behavior.

If you have a probability vector, you would typically take the max, not model the action on the probability distribution.

e.g. If an image (from the forward camera) returns the probability vector: {"stop_sign": .9, "green_light": .1} You stop the car 10/10 times.

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#147
post #61

"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…

I don't see what's wrong with what they wrote. This statement of course doesn't show that the software is safe, but it is evidence that if there is a bug, it probably isn't easily triggered.

(Keep in mind that until they recover the logs, we don't even know if the autopilot was on.)

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah! Isn't it obvious that a feature named "autopilot" means you have to watch it like a hawk, keep your eyes on the road and your hands on the wheel?

Yes, it is obvious. What do you think a plane pilot does when autopilot is on? He watches to make sure everything is alright, and intervenes when necessary.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#149
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a plane crashes, the survival rate is pretty low. Most likely everyone on the plane is dead. People get into car accidents often enough to feel that crashing one's car rarely leads to death. Walter probably felt safe enough to use autopilot knowing that if the car crashed, he could still walk away from it.

Completely untrue. The survival rate for plane crashes is extremely high.[1] 1. https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NTSB_releases...

Note the study refers to “airplane accidents,” not “plane crashes.” I suspect that the vast majority of the airplane accidents included in the denominator wouldn’t be described by the vast majority of people as “plane crashes.”

Re: Tesla crash victim had complained about auto-pilot in same location

#150
post #61

"Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015. ... There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road." Who wrote this statement does not understand software. If there is some kind of Heisenbug, those numbers are too small to prove that the software is ok, and actually…

Misaligned sensor?
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