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Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

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Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#71

Post by aylmao »

rainbowmverse wrote: post #48
matte_black wrote: post #44

No. In fact now is a good time to pick up some more FB stock as it will almost certainly rebound to the 190s when their latest “fiasco” is out of the public spotlight. FB can easily open new lines of business beyond social networking.

I doubt this very much. Google has proven that success at dominating and monetizing one thing doesn't translate easily to dominating and monetizing another thing. Both are ad companies. Google got lucky with buying YouTube and Android on search ad money. They haven't been able to translate that success into anything else. Facebook probably got lucky with WhatsApp and Instagram. Only time will tell if they can do it a…

One also has to remember Facebook is about a third the size of Google (25,105 vs 73,992), according to Wikipedia [1][2]. So if anything, unless it grows more or focuses better it'd be hard to move into drastically different ventures.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#72

Post by Splines »

remir wrote: post #58

A lot of people may be less and less interested in Facebook "the social network", but a lot of them are still using Messenger, WhatsApp and Instagram, so FB is still huge and dominant in the social sphere.

True enough, but how much revenue is FB bringing in on these platforms? These platforms all have alternatives and aren't exactly sticky. If FB turns the screws to increase ROI, customers are going to leave.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#73

Post by craigmi »

TomMarius wrote: post #68
ajb257 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it All the younger generation I know are big users of Instagram and WhatsApp - both FB properties.

I literally don't know anyone who uses Whatsapp, only Messenger. These things are very different across the world.

different indeed, everyone I know in Ireland uses it.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#74

Post by lod723 »

mseebach wrote: post #2

No. I think you're overestimating how much bad press Facebook is actually getting outside the tech bubble. Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it, but that process has been underway for a few years now, and it will take many more years to complete (obviously offering Zuckerberg many chances to turn the ship around).

Having a bad rap inside the tech bubble affects them in relation to recruiting and retention though. If the tech zeitgeist turns against Facebook as a "cool place to work" that's pretty bad news for them.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#75

Post by agotterer »

jonballant wrote: post #38

No. I can tell you speaking to my family and friends that are part of the "younger generation", while Snapchat and Instagram have grown in popularity (both Facebook companies) every person within their social network still owns their own Facebook profile. Furthermore it is still the standard to connect people around the world. Ask any person who has made a non-professional acquaintance while traveling to another coun…

Snapchat is not owned by Facebook. FB does own whatsapp though.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#76

Post by roymurdock »

No. spend any time outside the US and you’ll see the Facebook and WhatsApp are integral pieces of tech used extensively for business instead of the more photo sharing / news / groups way it’s used here.

Unless Facebook was discovered to be doing very illegal things I wouldn’t count on anything changing, and even so they would potentially be fined and a few people fired ala Volkswagen but IMO extremely unlikely to be broken up/disbanded/sold/rebranded

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#77

Post by dlwdlw »

ajb257 wrote: post #29
mseebach wrote: post #2

No. I think you're overestimating how much bad press Facebook is actually getting outside the tech bubble. Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it, but that process has been underway for a few years now, and it will take many more years to complete (obviously offering Zuckerberg many chances to turn the ship around).

> Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it All the younger generation I know are big users of Instagram and WhatsApp - both FB properties.

Yea, Facebook had admitted to missing mobile and the WhatsApp purchase was driven very much by the knowledge that the for platform was losing streak.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#78

Post by always_good »

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #49
always_good wrote: post #18

Was it the end of Windows just because Windows 10 had some hoopla in the press about analytics and its auto-update? No, nobody cared. I mean, it was a meme that everyone made jokes about, even late night talk shows. But nobody cared.

Poor analogy. Most people with Windows computers can’t simply switch to Linux and expect their lives to be the same - they have file formats and IT department setups to maintain - while most people could quit Facebook and see no significant change in their lives, except perhaps for the better. And yes, people do care. I work at a top tier U.S. university, and in our college at least we have so far refused to update o…

I don't think it's a poor analogy. We all can cite anecdotes of people being fed up with something, but it won't lead to its death. Your IT dept anecdote is just OP's "I know people that quit Facebook."

Also, look at how people use Facebook. Quitting it would absolutely require a change in their social habits and opportunities.

Too many HNers look at Facebook through the lens of their own slowing social life. Long out of university, aren't meeting people regularly. Yes, makes sense that you could delete Facebook with a skip and a hop.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#79

Post by kerkeslager »

I really wish people would communicate better when talking about things like this. The vague language being used here puts an artificial cap on how in-depth answers to this question can actually be.

Facebook isn't going to literally end (i.e. go bankrupt and dissolve) this year. It's too big to fail in that sense. Keep in mind that MySpace is still around. I'm guessing this isn't the kind of ending you're talking about.

So if you don't mean literally end, what do you mean by end?

Lose their dominance? In what space are we talking about them losing dominance (ads, social networks, something else)? Keeping in mind that for them to lose their dominance in any of these spaces in 2017 a viable competitor probably has to exist already.

Or are we talking about their markets shrinking? I.e. people realizing that social media is toxic and quitting in droves to some arbitrary low point (let's say, they lose half their active users)?

And in either of these cases, what would keep them from simply shifting spaces?

I'm sure some intelligent conversations will come out of this, but that's only because people on here will pick a possible meaning of your question and run with it. There would be a lot larger of an intelligent conversation if people chose their words for specific meaning rather than this clickbait-y silliness.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#80

Post by johnchristopher »

TomMarius wrote: post #68
ajb257 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it All the younger generation I know are big users of Instagram and WhatsApp - both FB properties.

I literally don't know anyone who uses Whatsapp, only Messenger. These things are very different across the world.

I read on HN Brazil has a vibrant WhatsApp community of users. Doctors confirming appointments, hospital sending stuff, etc. That kind of things.
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