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Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

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Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#42

I keep thinking about this article[1] whenever I see bad press about FB lately. Relevant portion: "Murdoch hosted Zuckerberg at his Sun Valley, Idaho, villa and expressed discontent with Facebook's News Feed algorithm and its handling of news. He requested Facebook consult publishing partners and be more generous sharing digital ad revenue, or he vowed, News Corp executives would take their dislike of Facebook public…

Interesting information, thank you. The knives do seem to be out for FB right now, but equally it is the douchiest of douchebag business models, essentially: we'll give you a means to engage with the world, but we're going to watch how you do it, in order to manipulate your preferences. It's like the Stasi but in corporate form. Essentially, it will die because it's the Harvey Weinstein of corporate America - and because all the #metoo victims find their voice, with a little help from the other studio heads which would like to see the monster disappear.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#43
post #36
post #2

No. I think you're overestimating how much bad press Facebook is actually getting outside the tech bubble. Facebook is going to get done in by the fact that the younger generation doesn't like it, but that process has been underway for a few years now, and it will take many more years to complete (obviously offering Zuckerberg many chances to turn the ship around).

> No. I think you're overestimating how much bad press Facebook is actually getting outside the tech bubble. If you think Facebook is only getting hammered inside the tech bubble, you probably are living inside the tech bubble. People are waking up to the harm caused by Facebook everywhere . My non-technical friends' raging against Facebook sounds similar to what I've been hearing from my technical friends for the pa…

I think the watershed moment was the election of Donald Trump. While it may not have been the determining factor, the deluge of fake news claiming Trump is the only one who could save us from Obama the secret Kenyan Muslim certainly couldn't have hurt his chances of winning.

Nobody ever questioned the value of giving the uneducated this much power and amplification.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#45
Its maybe a turning point around transparency and accountability, but surely not the end. Facebook is so dominant in many areas (remember they own Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus) that we will have them around for the foreseeable future. Even when talking about a potential replacement, nothing comes to mind - in some sense it the perfect opportunity for a startup. Just gotta have that great idea on how you make the user the user, and not the product.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#46
post #3

No way, lots of companies get negative press and thrive. Facebook has lots of capital to throw at buying up smaller social networks (see: Instagram, which is still on the up and up for monthly users) Many people honestly don't care about this data scandal or the other things Facebook does.

I’m surprised Uber is still around after the persistent bad press. People seem to just not care outside of my social circles.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#47
Facebook is extremely valuable to an enormous number of people. The only thing that will end it is a non-profit competitor a la Wikipedia.

This isn't my idea, & I expect to see one of these emerge and take over in the next 1-3 years.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#48

No. In fact now is a good time to pick up some more FB stock as it will almost certainly rebound to the 190s when their latest “fiasco” is out of the public spotlight. FB can easily open new lines of business beyond social networking.

I doubt this very much. Google has proven that success at dominating and monetizing one thing doesn't translate easily to dominating and monetizing another thing.

Both are ad companies. Google got lucky with buying YouTube and Android on search ad money. They haven't been able to translate that success into anything else.

Facebook probably got lucky with WhatsApp and Instagram. Only time will tell if they can do it again once those two start to collapse.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#49

Was it the end of Windows just because Windows 10 had some hoopla in the press about analytics and its auto-update? No, nobody cared. I mean, it was a meme that everyone made jokes about, even late night talk shows. But nobody cared.

Poor analogy. Most people with Windows computers can’t simply switch to Linux and expect their lives to be the same - they have file formats and IT department setups to maintain - while most people could quit Facebook and see no significant change in their lives, except perhaps for the better.

And yes, people do care. I work at a top tier U.S. university, and in our college at least we have so far refused to update or support our Windows machines past 7. Microsoft’s Windows 10 stumbles do matter.

Re: Ask HN: Is 2018 the end of Facebook?

#50

I keep thinking about this article[1] whenever I see bad press about FB lately. Relevant portion: "Murdoch hosted Zuckerberg at his Sun Valley, Idaho, villa and expressed discontent with Facebook's News Feed algorithm and its handling of news. He requested Facebook consult publishing partners and be more generous sharing digital ad revenue, or he vowed, News Corp executives would take their dislike of Facebook public…

I was thinking more of this one which is more directly relevant to abusing user expectations of privacy: http://www.businessinsider.com/well-these-new-zuckerberg-ims... Neither murdoch nor Zuckerberg are admirable characters.

You're comparing Murdoch now to Zuckerberg aged 19. I dread to think the sort of nonsense I said in private IMs at 19.
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