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California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

lao.ca.gov

201–210 of 230 posts

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#201
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fairly clear that they mean "the birth rate for people in the 20-35 age range, which happens to coincide with the millenials at the moment."

It's pretty clear what they meant, but humorously even your rewording isn't accurate. A named generation is static, based on the birth dates. The "20-35 age range" is dynamic, anchored to the present time. Also, named generations (like "Millennials", "Gen Y", "Gen X", "Baby Boomers", etc) don't have rigid definitions. Some media groups define it as starting as early as 1976 and others as late as 1984, which is 50% of…

> A named generation is static, based on the birth dates. The "20-35 age range" is dynamic, anchored to the present time.

Yes, that's why my phrasing used "at this moment." At this moment, millenials are around an age range of 20-35 years old, give or take a bit depending on the very fact that you point out, there aren't well defined boundaries and the exact age range could vary. I was very careful to include "at this moment" in my phrasing, for the reason that you point out. I didn't bother to hedge about the unclear boundaries of the millenial generation, since that wasn't the topic at hand, but yes, these terms are somewhat vague.

The actual article cited simply discussed the nationwide birthrate at different points in time; it didn't talk about particular generations.

Given that millenials are currently the generation that are of prime child-bearing age, it's pretty clear what the original poster meant "people of child bearing age right now, who happen to be millenials, are having less children than those of child bearing age at any point since the great depression."

The original phrasing was humorously incorrect, I just thought that asking for clarification was a bit much, since it was pretty clear what they meant to say, it was just a funny mistaken phrasing.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#202
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.vox.com/cities-and-urbanism/2018/2/23/17011154/s... is the best article so far, but the nber introduction from 2002 is a great background piece ( http://www.nber.org/papers/w8835 ) also, i've considered this quite a bit and written on it mediocre-ly: https://medium.com/@justinkrause/how-to-save-san-francisco-8...

If I get the idea behind it, we're going to eliminate/reduce parking requirements and give a density bonus. And the primary way this will be feasible is if (more) people take transit. Then the thing about SB827 that doesn't make sense to me is why the bonus is only for residential development. Yes, I understand that residential pricing is the problem. But, we're not just taking transit to our friend's house. We're ta…

What density are they talking about? If 4-6 levels, then you can likely accommodate residential in the upper tiers and light commercial (consultancies, etc) at the bottom.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#203

Democratic states moving into California and Californians mostly leaving for conservative states. Interesting. There are multiple ways to interpret though.

I was hoping someone else would make this connection in the comments. What I see happening is a slow but steady demographic shift based on politics. I know my own recent move from Virginia to Arkansas was largely because of this, and statistics from the past few elections have been showing a decrease in the number of "swing" counties. Communities are becoming more politically homogenous. I wonder if this happened pri…

> Communities are becoming more politically homogenous. I wonder if this happened prior to the US Civil War

Not particularly; compared to today, US states, in national partisan terms, were more homogenous for most of the history of the nation; this got a bit shook up with the New Deal Coalition and further when the LBJ committed to civil rights and then Republicans targeted the Democrats disaffected segregationist base. Greater political homogeneity is just a reversion to historical norms after some mid-20th Century disruptions.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#204
post #187
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

San Diego? If you bought you house 20 years ago and it is worth $1M now, you probably pay $2k to $3k in taxes.

I don't think this is true. My parents own a house near a $1M and they much more than $3K an year in taxes.

Depends on how long they owned they house. For example: https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/2443-Curlew-St-92101/hom...

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ex-native here. TX isn't anything like what it was before the Bible Belt migrated in and took over the suburbs/electorate. Too bad Texas is too progressive to have a Prop 13 - I can't go back anywhere in TX w/o people whinging about their property taxes or toll road fees.

Prop 13 is what ruined California. Not only did it institute rent control for property owners with all its associated problems, but it also tied the hands of legislators for funding government programs, directly leading to the initiative-based rigid monstrosity of a state budget California suffers from today.

  Not only did it institute rent control 
No. Prop 13 did no such thing.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It closed a loophole where Prop 13 (and other tax-restricting props) could be circumvented by introducing new taxes with slightly different names. It is still circumvented (Mello-Roos, special assessments, bond measures which shift the bond payments to a special tax that acts as a property taxes, but is not called one, versus servicing payments through property taxes revenue) but through well-defined legislative rout…

> It closed a loophole where Prop 13 (and other tax-restricting props) could be circumvented by introducing new taxes with slightly different names. No, property taxes are local. Prop 13 tied the hands of the state government. Prop 218 then applied the same shackles to local governments, which ensured that California would see the wave of municipal bankruptcies during the great recession and which prevented local gov…

  the wave of municipal bankruptcies
"Wave"? The Legislative Analyst's web page mentions only one completed bankruptcy (Vallejo), with only 3 other attempts.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#207
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now imagine if California reverses course and enacts conservative-friendly policies - and turns into a red state.

By and large califirnia is a red state: outside the major urban areas the state is mostly quote red; some urban areas (e.g. Orange county) are also quite red and those populations send conservatives to congress. But because the majority of the population do live in major urban areas you see the state legislature about 70/30 D/R and the statewide offices tend to go to the majority as well. But within recent memory the…

  republican governors, two of whom (nixon and regan) became US presidents
Nixon was never Governor.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now imagine if California reverses course and enacts conservative-friendly policies - and turns into a red state.

It wasn't a very long time ago that California was red. You don't have to imagine. It was only after Pete Wilson decided to crackdown on latinos that the state shifted into solid D.

  It wasn't a very long time ago that California was red.
In Presidential voting, and only through 1988.

Even then, the Legislature was consistently Democrat-controlled (in recent years, Democrat supermajorities).

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oregon sucks. Don't move here, I mean there. But, Texas is very nice.

Can confirm. Oregon is terrible, and I've heard it's entirely full now anyway.

Can confirm. I drove through eastern Oregon last summer. I also got killed. Twice. Then I took the CA plates off the car.

It's a horrible place; stay out.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#210
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By and large califirnia is a red state: outside the major urban areas the state is mostly quote red; some urban areas (e.g. Orange county) are also quite red and those populations send conservatives to congress. But because the majority of the population do live in major urban areas you see the state legislature about 70/30 D/R and the statewide offices tend to go to the majority as well. But within recent memory the…

republican governors, two of whom (nixon and regan) became US presidents Nixon was never Governor.

Thanks. Too late to edit my post.
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