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California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

lao.ca.gov

181–190 of 230 posts

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ignored the main detrimental effects of Prop 13 I described in my comment and addressed only the rent control aspect.

How did it tie the hands of the legislators?

Any new taxes, even revenue neutral ones, or increases in existing taxes require a 2/3 majority vote in both houses, which was essentially impossible until very recently. A consequence is that loss of revenue from one source could not be made up by taxing other sources. Conservatives even tried to argue that Cap and Trade was a new tax and was not allowed by Prop 13: http://legal-planet.org/2017/04/06/court-of-appeal-confirms-....

The only way to fund new programs was by ballot initiative, which requires a simple majority vote. Ballot initiatives don't pass unless all funds are earmarked for the specified program, even if revenues for the proposed tax or costs of the proposed program change over time. Ballot initiatives that issue bonds are even more likely to pass because they don't require an immediate tax increase. The result of a few decades of Prop 13 is California's ongoing budget problems with high taxes and poor allocation of revenues.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 is what ruined California. Not only did it institute rent control for property owners with all its associated problems, but it also tied the hands of legislators for funding government programs, directly leading to the initiative-based rigid monstrosity of a state budget California suffers from today.

Property owners voted for Prop 13 and knew what they were getting. Few, if any, would change their vote. I've seen the past and I see Texas' future - they'll either go to an initiative system or income tax. Check back in 10 years.

> and knew what they were getting

The discussion in the sibling thread shows that this isn't the case.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 is what ruined California. Not only did it institute rent control for property owners with all its associated problems, but it also tied the hands of legislators for funding government programs, directly leading to the initiative-based rigid monstrosity of a state budget California suffers from today.

Economic growth in California happens in places with a lot of new construction and a robust real estate market, where each real estate transaction resets the assessment price. In some areas of California the prices still haven't recovered to the pre-housing crash levels. You'd only get significant advantage from Prop 13 if you bought during the 80s and held. While there are some places like that (Berkeley?) the state…

Prop 13 tax rates can also be passed on to family members if they purchase or inherit the house. It’s a great deal for those who can take advantage of it, but it is also unfair and decreases mobility.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm mystified as to why big Californian cities still put parking on building codes. NYC and Chicago have accepted that parking isn't a right, and parking regulations here make it feel like more of the same NIMBY-ism that retards growth in the state.

Otherwise developers will externalize the parking spot problems to nearby streets, which makes for unhappy residents. Even people who swear off cars might have friends, family or coworkers who might visit. A proper way to go about it is to set up a permit-only parking zone, and then allow some high-density housing to be built with an explicit provision that they will never be eligible for parking permits. But that al…

It's pretty simple to incentivize enforcement. Give police officers a commission for each parking ticket they levy, like Chicago does. I think incumbents just want to keep the situation the way it is which is why this is taking so long.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#185

The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA. A combination of egregious housing policies and other anti-bussines/anti-people regulations stifle the economic well being of it's inhabitants. It's sad to see people having to leave behind their friends and families, for all this. Not only are people leaving, but the birth rate for millineials in CA hasn't been this low since the great depression: http://www.lat…

> The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA But that's not what most of the data shows. The bulk of the data shows lower-income, lower education Californians moving out. The strongest peak is for minimum wage incomes. While middle class incomes are still shown as leaving CA, it's far less than those at the lower end. For me the starkest and most concerning contrast is not wealthy vs. poor, but young vs. o…

They're moving in part because CA continues to push out businesses that require unskilled labor, through a combination of taxes, minimum wage hikes, regulations, and other roadblocks. Generally it's dressed up as a Good Thing, but I'm not so sure.

CA has the highest poverty rates in the country, along with the highest taxes. SF is rich as all hell, but can't keep feces and needles from littering the sidewalks or car windows intact. Cupertino had virtue signaling signs up supporting undocumented immigrants and welcoming them to their city - but their housing policy shows only the rich of any race or creed are welcome.

All the while places like Houston are booming, with development happening everywhere, affordable housing, diverse population, and jobs.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#186

>Families with kids and those with only a high school education predominate among those moving from California to its top destination states (Texas, Arizona, and Nevada). College-educated 18 to 35 year olds led the way among those moving to California from its top feeder states (New York, Illinois, and New Jersey).

I am loving that. Take all the people who don't have college educations and send them off to Texas, California can take the educated.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#187
post #89
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a place where owners of $1MM properties expect to pay less than $20K in property tax?

San Diego? If you bought you house 20 years ago and it is worth $1M now, you probably pay $2k to $3k in taxes.

I don't think this is true. My parents own a house near a $1M and they much more than $3K an year in taxes.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most other "blue" states suffer from the same problem as California: massive wealth concentration and the subsequent sky-high rents and real estate prices. I know when I was seriously considering relocating, the politics of the region wasn't a consideration. I was far more concerned about availability of jobs (and cost of living relative to what I could earn). If I were in SF and couldn't get a job at Big Tech, I'd b…

That's pretty shortsighted. You still have to live in those areas, raise kids in those areas, and pay taxes in those areas. Why wouldn't you consider the local politics?

...you'd be able to send your kids to a better school. And your kids would be better off.

California has some of the worst public schools in the country. In a red state you could send your kid to private school or afford a house in the best school districts.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#189

Democratic states moving into California and Californians mostly leaving for conservative states. Interesting. There are multiple ways to interpret though.

The data's pretty mixed on that. For outflow states: Texas (#1): Solid R Arizona (#2): R Nevada (#3): Lean D Oregon, Washington (#4, #5): Solid D Colorado (#6): D Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma (#7, #8, #9): Solid R Georgia (#10): R That's 6 R, 4 D.

Georgia is Republican. But Atlanta is not.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You want 2% property taxes at San Diego property values? Without Prop 13?

My house is worth almost double what I paid for it and yet I would vote against prop 13 in a heartbeat. Even if it were repealed today, it will take at least a decade to recover from the harm it has done to the municipalities.

Same here, but good luck getting it repealed. Economic self-interest is going to self-interest.
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