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California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

lao.ca.gov

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Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#141

Post by 650REDHAIR »

mywittyname wrote: post #64
randyrand wrote: post #9

Democratic states moving into California and Californians mostly leaving for conservative states. Interesting. There are multiple ways to interpret though.

Most other "blue" states suffer from the same problem as California: massive wealth concentration and the subsequent sky-high rents and real estate prices. I know when I was seriously considering relocating, the politics of the region wasn't a consideration. I was far more concerned about availability of jobs (and cost of living relative to what I could earn). If I were in SF and couldn't get a job at Big Tech, I'd b…

That's pretty shortsighted. You still have to live in those areas, raise kids in those areas, and pay taxes in those areas.

Why wouldn't you consider the local politics?

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#142

Post by whatshisface »

adrianratnapala wrote: post #113
whatshisface wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the greatest strengths of the Texas legislature is that almost everything is written in to the constitution, thereby being almost impossible to change. So for this reason the (proven disastrous) legal and business theories that have messed up housing costs in California would have a very hard time taking root here.

Of course when the bad ideas bear their dark fruit, they will be hard to change too. But more seriously can you expand more on this "almost everything is written into the constitution"? Is this a back-door way of getting Swiss-style direct democracy. Skimming wikipedia it seems that amedments are passed by a referendum approving a legislative proposal (and this processes has happened hundreds of times). if this is th…

Amendments must win two-thirds of the legislature and a simple majority of the public. In some sense, it's a swiss-style democracy and-ed to one of the most conservatively designed legislatures ever implemented.

Regular laws don't have to pass the same gauntlet, but because the constitution is so expansive nearly every new law has to get it amended to prevent a contradiction.

https://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/cons/0405.html

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#143

Post by dragonwriter »

tomkarlo wrote: post #134
dragonwriter wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unfortunate reality of CA is that or every resident that's moving out there are two people going to take their place. Actually, for every 6 moving out, 5 are going to take their place, per the article. But I suspect that a lot of the out migration isn't from the urban economic powerhouses and most of the in migration goes to them, so that for urban California, your statement may be closer to true, though exaggerate…

The article seems to ignore a big group: California nets about 100K or more immigrants from outside the US each year, which would cover the gap in recent year. http://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/

> The article seems to ignore a big group: California nets about 100K or more immigrants from outside the US each year, which would cover the gap in recent year.

Yes, the article specifically about internal migration doesn't address external migration.

> California nets about 100K or more immigrants from outside the US each year, which would cover the gap in recent year.

Sure, but it doesn't change it from near balance to anything but even nearer balance; it's nothing like 2 in for 1 out on a statewide basis.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#144

Post by prostoalex »

krausejj wrote: post #123
prostoalex wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it costs too much to live here because of zoning I am somewhat skeptical of a large complex problem having an easy, magical, fix-all solution. LA construction (downtown area specifically, which is close to transit and zoned for pretty much anything) is booming https://la.curbed.com/2017/1/23/14364926/cranes-los-angeles-... but the dream of the dirt-cheap units remains a pie in the sky http://www.ladowntownnews.com/…

did you have a chance to check out the nber article i linked to at the top? it does a deep dive on construction costs and land economics. here is the direct link: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8835 (it is a super interesting read, even if you just read the intro) i too am skeptical of magical fix-all solutions, but I actually believe this could be a silver bullet. many of the issues you describe are circular—constructi…

I guess I am kinda agreeing with the thesis - I am observing that “marginal, physical costs of new construction” is not as low as people expect it to be.

Downtown SJ is another good example - they zone pretty much anything, the debate in the local papers is whether developers deserved tax breaks, not whether the zoning decision was right.

Prices are below SF and PA for sure, but we’re still not seeing dramatic drops. There’s some $/sq.ft. floor that developers in SJ and LA are not able to breach even when all regulations are fast-tracked.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#145

Post by DamnYuppie »

dnomad wrote: post #131
Casseres wrote: post #14

Native Texan here. I and many other Texans I know welcome newcomers with open arms. We all just have one message though: Please do not turn Texas into the places y'all are leaving. There's a reason y'all are leaving after all. EDIT: Newcomers: We generally don't care what anyone does or thinks, we only care when people try to force us to conform to their beliefs, including what to do with our money, eg) raising taxes…

I suspect Texas will wish it had California's problems in a decade. California is experiencing a brain gain [1] as the best and the brightest relocate to the state en mass. Texas is meanwhile experiencing a brain drain by experting college educated and college-seeking citizens en masse. A quick look at industries in decline (oil, coal, meat) and industries on the rise (automotive, tech, healthcare) does not suggest t…

Texas is growing, lots of large companies leaving other states to move there. So to say their is a large brain drain is disingenuous. All of those companies you listed as "on the rise" are relocating to Texas, a few examples: State Farm, Toyota, and soon Amazon HQ2(Amazon hates taxes). This is a small sampling, there are many more companies moving to Texas all the time.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#146

Post by [deleted] »

dnomad wrote: post #131
Casseres wrote: post #14

Native Texan here. I and many other Texans I know welcome newcomers with open arms. We all just have one message though: Please do not turn Texas into the places y'all are leaving. There's a reason y'all are leaving after all. EDIT: Newcomers: We generally don't care what anyone does or thinks, we only care when people try to force us to conform to their beliefs, including what to do with our money, eg) raising taxes…

I suspect Texas will wish it had California's problems in a decade. California is experiencing a brain gain [1] as the best and the brightest relocate to the state en mass. Texas is meanwhile experiencing a brain drain by experting college educated and college-seeking citizens en masse. A quick look at industries in decline (oil, coal, meat) and industries on the rise (automotive, tech, healthcare) does not suggest t…

[deleted]

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#147

Post by corpMaverick »

dragonwriter wrote: post #63
mehrdadn wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but the birth rate for millineials in CA hasn't been this low since the great depression I think this might need a rewording to convey whatever idea you were trying to convey, because I have a hunch there weren't many millennials around during the Great Depression. :-)

And the birth rate for Millennials has been zero for pretty much all of history, except for a short blip on the late 20th Century. And that's not an effect limited to CA.

Don't forget the other blip on the late 10th Century.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#148

Post by ProAm »

vannevar wrote: post #78
ProAm wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Colorado is a very conservative democratic state.

It might be more accurate to say that Colorado is a very libertarian democratic state.

For most of it's history it has voted Republican, with only the last decade or so being Democrat [1]. But the state still holds a lot of very conservative views. It's very down the middle.

[1] https://www.270towin.com/states/Colorado

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#149

Post by inetknght »

Hextinium wrote: post #43
antimatter wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my fear as well. As a Californian who's looking to move to Texas at some point in the future, I really hope the people leaving aren't taking "California values" to Texas with them.

As someone from Dallas here, the people from California that move here never fully adapt but they do conform to Texas after a year or two. That being said there are places that are much more "California like" than Texan like popping up on occasion.

My parents came to Houston, Texas from California because of job opportunities. Even after 15 years they still whine very loudly about Texas policies and want to move back to California.

Conform? Barely. Fully adapt? Hell no. I hope my parents are the exception though, for Texas' sake. This place is way better than California (I visit plenty of family who still live there) and I would hate for it to be gutted in such fashion.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#150

Post by vondur »

krausejj wrote: post #50
pascalxus wrote: post #13

The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA. A combination of egregious housing policies and other anti-bussines/anti-people regulations stifle the economic well being of it's inhabitants. It's sad to see people having to leave behind their friends and families, for all this. Not only are people leaving, but the birth rate for millineials in CA hasn't been this low since the great depression: http://www.lat…

a solution is on the table— sb-827. please research it. californians (and i am one too) need to stop complaining and start fixing things. this bill fixes things. it needs our attention and support. UPDATE: sb-827 prevents local governments in california from banning density near public transit. it represents the most radical housing bill in recent california history, because it rebalances control from hyperlocal muni…

Here in Southern California, we are running out of room for housing. You can basically drive all the way from San Diego to Santa Barbara, or from the coast to about a 100 miles inland and it's all city. Unless you are going to tear down existing housing and rebuild with more high density housing which is just cost prohibitive. I figure at some point availability of water will become the limiting factor.
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