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California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

lao.ca.gov

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Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#131

Post by dnomad »

Casseres wrote: post #14

Native Texan here. I and many other Texans I know welcome newcomers with open arms. We all just have one message though: Please do not turn Texas into the places y'all are leaving. There's a reason y'all are leaving after all. EDIT: Newcomers: We generally don't care what anyone does or thinks, we only care when people try to force us to conform to their beliefs, including what to do with our money, eg) raising taxes…

I suspect Texas will wish it had California's problems in a decade. California is experiencing a brain gain [1] as the best and the brightest relocate to the state en mass. Texas is meanwhile experiencing a brain drain by experting college educated and college-seeking citizens en masse. A quick look at industries in decline (oil, coal, meat) and industries on the rise (automotive, tech, healthcare) does not suggest that Texas is the place to be or that these people leaving for Texas are doing so voluntarily.

[1] http://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain/

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#132

Post by HillaryBriss »

AcerbicZero wrote: post #7
irrational wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oregon sucks. Don't move here, I mean there. But, Texas is very nice.

Can confirm. Oregon is terrible, and I've heard it's entirely full now anyway.

there are only about 4 million people in the entire state of Oregon. that's less than half the population of Los Angeles County alone.

and Oregon covers an area approximately 25 times as large as Los Angeles County.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#133

Post by dragonwriter »

marcell wrote: post #110

Doesn't the chart in TFA directly directly contradict the point of TFA? From TFA: http://lao.ca.gov/Blog/Media/Image/957 Net out migration is at a fairly low level compared to other times since 1990.

> Doesn't the chart in TFA directly directly contradict the point of TFA?

No.

Though it might contradict an incorrect inference about the point, which is not “this effect is getting worse” but “this effect exists, and here is a detailed breakdown”.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#134

Post by tomkarlo »

dragonwriter wrote: post #112
wetpaws wrote: post #87

Unfortunate reality of CA is that or every resident that's moving out there are two people going to take their place.

> Unfortunate reality of CA is that or every resident that's moving out there are two people going to take their place. Actually, for every 6 moving out, 5 are going to take their place, per the article. But I suspect that a lot of the out migration isn't from the urban economic powerhouses and most of the in migration goes to them, so that for urban California, your statement may be closer to true, though exaggerate…

The article seems to ignore a big group: California nets about 100K or more immigrants from outside the US each year, which would cover the gap in recent year.

http://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#135

Post by krausejj »

dcldcl wrote: post #98
krausejj wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a solution is on the table— sb-827. please research it. californians (and i am one too) need to stop complaining and start fixing things. this bill fixes things. it needs our attention and support. UPDATE: sb-827 prevents local governments in california from banning density near public transit. it represents the most radical housing bill in recent california history, because it rebalances control from hyperlocal muni…

SB-827: Planning and zoning: transit-rich housing bonus [0] Edited: Nevermind, I see your other posts below. Original: I'm a urban California resident... (have been for a good chunk of my life). I'm don't see why this is a solution to the problem of why people are leaving the state. Can you provide your thoughts on why you believe this to be the solution? Or links to material you've found to be compelling? [0] https:…

https://www.vox.com/cities-and-urbanism/2018/2/23/17011154/s... is the best article so far, but the nber introduction from 2002 is a great background piece (http://www.nber.org/papers/w8835)

also, i've considered this quite a bit and written on it mediocre-ly: https://medium.com/@justinkrause/how-to-save-san-francisco-8...

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#136

Post by adamrezich »

dnomad wrote: post #111
kenhwang wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced this is a bad thing. What's wrong with having a higher educated, higher income populace?

Yeah the people who think this is a bad thing are pretty confused. The real story here is that everybody in California is becoming very highly educated [1]. California is experiencing a remarkable brain gain as the best and the brighest in the world relocate to the state. This may drive out lesser educated Americans but the idea that this is a disaster or a bad thing is mistaken. California's future is very bright (e…

A bad thing for whom? California or its (former) citizens?

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#137

Post by kbrackbill »

krausejj wrote: post #15

this is related to an article i just submitted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16478780 it costs too much to live here because of zoning. zoning is largely driven by local governments, dominated by homeowners who benefit when prices rise. but california might fix it with sb-827, which would prevent local governments from banning density near transit hubs. california builds https://standupcalifornia.com (this is…

FYI the link to my state senator's (Nancy Skinner's) site is broken- it's http://sd9.senate.ca.gov/ but should be http://sd09.senate.ca.gov/

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#138

Post by sureshv »

all_blue_chucks wrote: post #85

California is also losing residents by discouraging migration via high taxes. For example, I had two job offers: one in California and one in Washington. Since this was a $200k+ job, that income tax in CA would have cost me $40 grand per year. Suffice it to say I now live in Washington.

CA State income tax on $200k is around $15k - not sure where the other $25k went unless you mean cost of living.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#139

Post by jahewson »

pascalxus wrote: post #13

The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA. A combination of egregious housing policies and other anti-bussines/anti-people regulations stifle the economic well being of it's inhabitants. It's sad to see people having to leave behind their friends and families, for all this. Not only are people leaving, but the birth rate for millineials in CA hasn't been this low since the great depression: http://www.lat…

> The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA

But that's not what most of the data shows. The bulk of the data shows lower-income, lower education Californians moving out. The strongest peak is for minimum wage incomes.

While middle class incomes are still shown as leaving CA, it's far less than those at the lower end. For me the starkest and most concerning contrast is not wealthy vs. poor, but young vs. old.

Re: California Losing Residents via Domestic Migration

#140

Post by dragonwriter »

randyrand wrote: post #35
logfromblammo wrote: post #8

A cursory read of the graphics indicates that people with graduate degrees and higher-paying jobs are forcing the people with less money and less education out, and they are moving to states with lower costs of living.

It's hard to say with certainty that the emigrants are poor and uneducated. It's just as likely that people are becoming rich and then leaving for lower tax states. There are also stronger political incentives for richer folk. "An individual’s likelihood of being a Democrat decreases with every additional dollar he or she earns." https://www.debt.org/faqs/americans-in-debt/economic-demogra...

> It's hard to say with certainty that the emigrants are poor and uneducated.

That would be true, if, you know, there were breakdowns of income and education demographics in the article.

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