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Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

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Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#171

Post by richardpoole »

leggomylibro wrote: post #55
kregasaurusrex wrote: post #7

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

>There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. Hey, that was the plot of H.P. Lovecraft's At the Mountains of Madness ! http://www.hplovecraft.com/writings/texts/fiction/mm.aspx Spoilers: "...But we were not on a station platform. We were on the track ahead as the nightmare plastic column of foetid black iridescence oozed tightly onward through its…

describes thing

“It was a terrible, indescribable thing...”

continues to describe thing

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#172

Post by dogma1138 »

notsofastbuddy wrote: post #16
knodi123 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"all human civilization"? Isn't that a bit hyperbolic? destructive, sure. It would certainly lead to a lot of death, and a lot of hardship. Human civilization will certainly be changed- perhaps significantly. But I haven't see any evidence that it will cease to exist.

No. There's a pretty clear path: rising temperatures->food supply disruption->regional war->nuclear war->there are maybe a few people left in bunkers.

The people with nukes would be the last to starve.

Also for anyone to go nuclear there would have to be a strategic goal for that Russia nuking the US won’t really help their food shortage and vice versa.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#173

Post by antishatter »

herbst wrote: post #63
jjoonathan wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of them, because that's how you build models? Or do you mean something different?

Pretty sure he ment modern models that prove to be more right than others using past data. Interesting question imo

I mean per the other response that is how you build models like this aka yes, all of them. Source: Am a Statistician

edit: that doesn't mean they are correct going forward necessarily and most of the doomsday models I've seen are simulations that run thousands of times and a very small number of the simulations predict doom and a very small number predict no effects. The average of these expiriments is often the most likely scenario but doesn't really make headlines.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#174

Post by vonmoltke »

sulam wrote: post #140
skrowl wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is definitely no shortage of doomsday climate models. CREDIBLE models is a different story. Look back at ones from 20+ years ago to see what they predicted would be happening by now. It's pretty funny actually.

I don't need models when I have the historical record. The historical record says mean sea level is going to be hundreds of _meters_ above current levels in the not-too-distant future.

> I don't need models when I have the historical record. The historical record says mean sea level is going to be hundreds of _meters_ above current levels in the not-too-distant future.

What in the historical record says this?

Edit: saw your reply to my sibling after I posted this.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#175

Post by kregasaurusrex »

leggomylibro wrote: post #55
kregasaurusrex wrote: post #7

There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. NPR ran a story[0] where Russian animals such as reindeer infected with Anthrax had thawed out, and caused outbreaks where people had to get preventative treatments against it. As a future threat model, what if there's new viruses or bacterium contained under previously frozen earth for which modern medi…

>There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. Hey, that was the plot of H.P. Lovecraft's At the Mountains of Madness ! http://www.hplovecraft.com/writings/texts/fiction/mm.aspx Spoilers: "...But we were not on a station platform. We were on the track ahead as the nightmare plastic column of foetid black iridescence oozed tightly onward through its…

Good catch! I hadn't read this myself but some college friends and I ran a Call of Cthulu campaign inspired by his works.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#176

Post by sulam »

vonmoltke wrote: post #174
sulam wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't need models when I have the historical record. The historical record says mean sea level is going to be hundreds of _meters_ above current levels in the not-too-distant future.

> I don't need models when I have the historical record. The historical record says mean sea level is going to be hundreds of _meters_ above current levels in the not-too-distant future. What in the historical record says this? Edit: saw your reply to my sibling after I posted this.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008PA001615/full

Feel free to do your own research, obviously. You are looking for eustatic sea level during PETM (Paleo-Eocene Thermal Maximum).

You will likely find a lot of studies which show coral reefs and anything that lives in the ocean and has a shell is about to have an even worse time of it than we are!

(To be clear, hundreds is the most extreme value -- the variability at different sites is fairly high, but roughly 50m is the minimum.)

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#177

Post by mike741 »

michaelmrose wrote: post #85
jessaustin wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really more of a philosophical position, isn't it? That isn't to say it's correct, but what would "evidence" even mean in this context?

Philosophical positions that you can't defend are mental masterbation without a payoff at the end. They aren't worth the time required to post them on this site.

Ok, but what about philosophical positions that CAN be defended? For example, your statement is a philosophical position in itself, no? A position, I assume, you believe to be "defensible?"

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#178

Post by morganvachon »

mlloyd wrote: post #107
leggomylibro wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There could be anything underneath all the permafrost, including new biodiversity which we haven't catalogued yet. Hey, that was the plot of H.P. Lovecraft's At the Mountains of Madness ! http://www.hplovecraft.com/writings/texts/fiction/mm.aspx Spoilers: "...But we were not on a station platform. We were on the track ahead as the nightmare plastic column of foetid black iridescence oozed tightly onward through its…

God that is hard to read. The guy might be thought a genius but I got absolutely nothing from that passage save the penguins.

It's no more difficult than Tolkien. Prose from that era was practically poetry.

Of course, I grew up reading a lot of books and short stories from that era, so maybe it's easier for my old brain, like riding a bicycle.

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#179

Post by vasilipupkin »

vkou wrote: post #161
lozenge wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why you're downvoted. The RCPs that show us respecting the goal of the 2C limit all show emissions need to shrink globally and reach zero around 2050 or even earlier. The fact emissions have stopped growing is not really much progress. It is like we are cruising to disaster rather than accelerating towards it.

Probably because there is no practical plan to reduce them to zero. There's much hand-wringing about future technologies, but the reality of it is that it will require drastic reduction in consumption.

Very unlikely that is the case. You are assuming that clean technologies will produce only economic cost not a net economic benefit. But that's not how technology works generally

Re: Scientists In Alaska Find Mammoth Amounts Of Carbon In The Warming Permafrost

#180

Post by adamio »

tzahola wrote: post #30
bsaul wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, what if every of those bacteries whose evolution stopped thousands of years ago are simply completely inapt to compete with the ones we've got today, because those had much more time to evolve ?

That’s not how evolution works. That’s like saying that a dog could easily kill a velociraptor because dogs are 65 million years “more evolved”.

To be pedantic dogs are pretty selectively bred by humans. Raptor vs Wolf might be more apt
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