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“The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

scientificamerican.com

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Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#41

Post by yumraj »

tbatchelli wrote: post #6
polskibus wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of curiosity, have you taken Vitamin D supplements before for a longer period of time? If yes - what was the daily dosage ? Have you taken flu shots at the beginning of the season?

What would the relationship be between Vit D and this (or any) flu?

There's an hypothesis, which conceptually makes sense though not sure how proven it is, about why flu season is Jan/Feb - March/April.

Basically during Fall as the amount of sunlight drops our bodies vitamin D, for which there is clinical evidence that it helps with immunity, drops leaving us more susceptible to infections leading to the overall flu season starting in Jan/Feb time frame. As the sunlight picks up, vitamin D increases and flu season tapers off.

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#42

Post by giarc »

framebit wrote: post #19

Personal anecdata about this flu season. I got the flu shot. My spouse did not. They ended up getting the full-blown flu with 103 degree fever and a positive flu test at the doctor. I, on the other hand, felt kind of crappy but I wasn't knocked on my feet and my temperature was normal the whole time. I asked our doctor if I essentially had a milder version of the flu because I got the shot and he said that was basica…

You're correct. Basically what happens is your body still gets primed for some type of flu and produces antibodies. The predominant circulating strain H3N2 is genetically a bit different than the vaccine strain of H3N2. So even though you don't have exactly the right antibodies, you still have some that can recognize the circulating strain and can start the response a bit earlier than someone with no antibodies.

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#43

Post by Simon_says »

Raphmedia wrote: post #21
opportune wrote: post #13

This article is good and reminded me of a key issue: herd immunity. I wish I could explain to more of my friends how irresponsible it is to not get the flu shot - they view it as simply an individual decision like "I'm choosing to not get the shot knowing full well I might get sick" - but they don't think of the possibility that if they do get sick, they may play a part in infecting other , more vulnerable people, su…

Not nitpicking or trying to be an idiot but shouldn't it be the vulnerable individuals that get the shot? It seems that the only people I know who get vaccinated for something as benign as the flu are: nurses, teachers, children, elderly. Everyone else simply take one or two day off during flu season in the event that they do catch it (most don't). Am I missing something? I have never been vaccinated for it and askin…

The flu is a little bit more than a slight inconvenience. I've had it before and felt horrible for 3-4 days. I'd gladly pay $30 per year for a 30% lower chance of experiencing that again.

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#44

Post by giarc »

pippy wrote: post #11

I'm in the southern hemisphere (NZ) and I got it after new years, It's the first time I've ever had the flu during summer. I got the flu shot late last year, but it didn't help much against this strain. I'm just getting over it now. It's a quite a nasty cold.

Australia seemed to be first to point out a vaccine mismatch in the 2017 season, which seems to have translated north to our 2017-2018 season.

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#45

Post by nxsynonym »

framebit wrote: post #19

Personal anecdata about this flu season. I got the flu shot. My spouse did not. They ended up getting the full-blown flu with 103 degree fever and a positive flu test at the doctor. I, on the other hand, felt kind of crappy but I wasn't knocked on my feet and my temperature was normal the whole time. I asked our doctor if I essentially had a milder version of the flu because I got the shot and he said that was basica…

As a counter anecdote, I got the flu shot and still ended up out of commission for 4 working days + a weekend of recovery.

Still get your flu shot as it helps prevent spread and probably saved me a trip to the hospital. But don't expect to be immune.

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#46

Post by Jach »

opportune wrote: post #31
Jach wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that just raise the question of why an at-risk elderly person wouldn't get the flu shot to protect themselves from all the people who don't? I've heard this irresponsibility argument a lot, I understand it, but I think it's overblown. Herd immunity works best when the vaccine is actually effective. For flu vaccines, every year they're not very effective.

The vaccine is still >30% effective. And you may be confused regarding how vaccines for things like the flu work: they have varying efficacy against different strains but getting vaccinated for a certain strain does not at all mean you won't get sick with that strain - it reduces the likelihood. Imagine all the people in the world as a graph with weighted edges representing the probability of one person transmitting…

Sure, I'm not disputing that flu vaccines suck compared to vaccines for other things. I'm just disputing that "irresponsibility" is a poor argument against those who decide not to get one, given that the flu vaccines suck, and given the greatest magnitude intervention for an at-risk person ought to be getting the vaccine themselves no? (If you wanted to make a stronger argument for irresponsibility, I think you'd need to provide some actual numbers. Raising or lowering the likelihood doesn't mean much without knowing the magnitude and what the base rates are. After that one could attempt to translate it into a measure of irresponsibility, but that's probably where most of the less productive arguments would happen, including what-about comparisons to other choices that may or may not have much greater impact magnitude like not coming to work while feeling sick, so there's still not much point to the exercise.)

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#47

Post by GuiA »

moultano wrote: post #38

http://www.virology.ws/2009/06/02/pathogenesis-of-influenza-... To keep your coworkers from getting the flu, go home as soon as you think you might be coming down with something. The amount of virus you are shedding into your environment is nicely exponential in how bad you are feeling, with one exception: The day before you start feeling really bad, you are shedding nearly as much virus as when you are feeling worst…

This is all true, but sadly not going to work is only an option for the more privileged in the USA.

A waiter paid minimum wage + tips struggling to pay for cost of living/child care/debt/medical expenses/etc is likely to go to work anyway, putting the health of potentially hundreds of people at risk.

EDIT: 1 hour later, currently sitting at -1 - if you disagree so much that you feel the need to downvote, please explain why - I am genuinely curious!

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#48

Post by bigtex »

nonbel wrote: post #26
opportune wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose if it's only 0.001% effective it would not be worth it, but that's really a pedantic nitpick because we know it's not that ineffective. The vaccine this year is about 32% effective against H3N2 in the US and 39% effective overall [0]. That's not amazing but it's definitely "worth it" for a few dollars and 5 minutes at a CVS. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht...

Basically your argument is that the costs of getting the vaccine are so negligible they can be ignored? What about side effects? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/vaccine/general.htm

Yep, all you have to do is review the government statistics on vaccine injuries to see the list of all the people who got GBS from the flu shot

https://www.hrsa.gov/advisorycommittees/childhoodvaccines/Me...

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#49

Post by nonbel »

opportune wrote: post #35
nonbel wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically your argument is that the costs of getting the vaccine are so negligible they can be ignored? What about side effects? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/vaccine/general.htm

Yes, they exist and aren't that common/severe. I mean at the end of the day it's a personal decision and if you're already unhealthy I understand why you wouldn't want to get the side effects. The problem is one of ignorance: people don't even know what herd immunity is and why it's important. In my opinion the side effects pale in comparison to the effects of getting the flu and are not a big "sacrifice" to make wha…

Ok, but besides my main point (regarding doing a cost benefit analysis), from your comments I doubt you understand herd immunity, and probably should not be attempting to teach others about it...

If the virus is too infectious you need very high rates of immunization for it to work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

Most of the time those R0 values assume "well mixed populations" (any one person is just as likely to contact any other person) amongst other things, so don't take them too seriously. However, the basic idea that you don't automatically get herd immunity is simple enough. Eg, just what I found quickly on the topic:

>"Whether vaccination of healthcare personnel can lead to a herd effect reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza among patients is still inconclusive. Pooled data from a Cochrane review of 3 cluster randomized controlled trials showed no reduction of laboratory-confirmed influenza (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.44–1.68; p = 0.66), lower respiratory tract infections, admission to hospital (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.75–1.06), and deaths from pneumonia (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.45–1.49) in patients when healthcare personnel were vaccinated [35]. However, given that mathematical models suggest a herd effect [36], more rigorous studies need to be conducted." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3171704/

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#50

Post by newfoundglory »

GuiA wrote: post #47
moultano wrote: post #38

http://www.virology.ws/2009/06/02/pathogenesis-of-influenza-... To keep your coworkers from getting the flu, go home as soon as you think you might be coming down with something. The amount of virus you are shedding into your environment is nicely exponential in how bad you are feeling, with one exception: The day before you start feeling really bad, you are shedding nearly as much virus as when you are feeling worst…

This is all true, but sadly not going to work is only an option for the more privileged in the USA. A waiter paid minimum wage + tips struggling to pay for cost of living/child care/debt/medical expenses/etc is likely to go to work anyway, putting the health of potentially hundreds of people at risk. EDIT: 1 hour later, currently sitting at -1 - if you disagree so much that you feel the need to downvote, please expla…

Very true - this argument helped pass mandatory sick leave entitlements in Seattle recently (I think it just came into effect).
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