Live data from Hacker News

Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

211–220 of 235 posts

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#211
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would presumably mean fewer roles advertised. I haven't noticed that either.

I alluded to a deadweight, or economic intertia, so yeah ... it's early days yet ... but it doesn't really matter because Brexit probably won't happen the way most people think it will ...

Dead weight losses occur in the case of distorting subsidies/tariffs or one side of the equation is a monopoly.

I don't see the relevance to Brexit's effect on the job market.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#212
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farage was never officially part of any the UK power structure, except the media.

He's an MEP. You can argue about their powers out his effectiveness, but he's an elected representative which I'd have thought puts him within the UK power structure.

That makes him part of the EU power structure, not the UK power structure.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#213
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, non-EU immigrants do get fucked over, because the immigration system is basically racially preferenced to European immigrants. Non-EU immigrants have to get through countless barriers those coming from the EU don't.

Skilled workers from non-EU country don't have many difficulties getting a work visa to the UK. And unskilled work doesn't usually compete with skilled work. Every selection is biased in one way or the other, there's no purely fair way of doing that.

> Skilled workers from non-EU country don't have many difficulties getting a work visa to the UK.

Oh? That's interesting. There are people in this comment thread claiming that work visa are really awful and restrictive.

> And unskilled work doesn't usually compete with skilled work.

Well, no, but we are forced to accept a ton of unskilled (and unneeded) immigration from the EU which means we have to restrict the total amount of potentially needed skilled work from non-EU countries.

> Every selection is biased in one way or the other, there's no purely fair way of doing that.

Is an immigration preference people of certain nationalises fair? Can I assume you agree with Trumps immigration bans by any chance?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#214
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my little time in the UK right before the Brexit vote, similar patterns emerged in public discourse about the vote. Disclaimed: anecdata below. From the few people I talked to, both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,” rather than having real strong reasons and desired outcomes in favor of voting one way or the other. It was a fear-driven vote, one to…

both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,” Absolutely, this. The remain campaign was actually labelled "Project Fear" [0], I mean if that doesn't say it all I don't know what does .. There was never, any actual discussion of what brexit means. How it would look. What consitutional adjustments would be made. Simply a binary "Stay" or "Leave" on the Ballot, wh…

I did not know this was called Project Fear. That is fascinating.

Fear has always been in the toolbox for politicians, but it seems to be being used more and more. Xenophobic fear is probably the most loudly-proclaimed one, but there are other types of fear, like the fear for one's safety... which, in the USA, is typically related to xenophobia these days, even if statistically it should not be [0].

I don't know the most effective way to fight fear-based messages besides very inspiring, positive-oriented messaging.

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/2...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#215
post #177
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, please tell me what restrictions are in place to stop someone from Poland immigrating to the UK? Also, are you suggesting the EU doesn't have open borders?

The EU requires a right to work and a right to join family. Someone migrating from Poland by themselves without a job is not technically doing so under freedom of movement and the UK is not obliged to let them be a resident. The treaties do contain restriction mechanisms which the UK didn't use: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/richard-bird/immigration-bla...

Okay, so basically open borders. But do you honestly believe this is a good immigration system other countries should adopt? And if so why don't you think other countries aren't applying this kind of thing?

The fact is this type of immigration policy hurts the poorest and lowest skilled in society. It also means even skilled workers have to compete for jobs when there isn't necessarily any need for their skills.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#216
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Skilled workers from non-EU country don't have many difficulties getting a work visa to the UK. And unskilled work doesn't usually compete with skilled work. Every selection is biased in one way or the other, there's no purely fair way of doing that.

> Skilled workers from non-EU country don't have many difficulties getting a work visa to the UK. Oh? That's interesting. There are people in this comment thread claiming that work visa are really awful and restrictive. > And unskilled work doesn't usually compete with skilled work. Well, no, but we are forced to accept a ton of unskilled (and unneeded) immigration from the EU which means we have to restrict the tota…

> There are people in this comment thread claiming that work visa are really awful and restrictive.

I'm not sure about their experience and my knowledge is 3rd party, still, YMMV.

> Is an immigration preference people of certain nationalities fair?

Not really, but no country does this fairly, and they're not wrong (within a limit). Key word: immigration. Is it fair that Canadians don't need a visa to visit the US but Mexicans do? No, but they're not wrong and Mexico is free to require a visa as well.

> Can I assume you agree with Trumps immigration bans by any chance?

The travel ban, not the immigration ban. And no, I don't agree that people with a valid visa (or even permanent residents, which was what the Supreme Court shot down first) shouldn't be allowed to visit (unless there's a specific issue).

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#217
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,” Absolutely, this. The remain campaign was actually labelled "Project Fear" [0], I mean if that doesn't say it all I don't know what does .. There was never, any actual discussion of what brexit means. How it would look. What consitutional adjustments would be made. Simply a binary "Stay" or "Leave" on the Ballot, wh…

I did not know this was called Project Fear. That is fascinating. Fear has always been in the toolbox for politicians, but it seems to be being used more and more. Xenophobic fear is probably the most loudly-proclaimed one, but there are other types of fear, like the fear for one's safety... which, in the USA, is typically related to xenophobia these days, even if statistically it should not be [0]. I don't know the…

There is a rather important point though: Project Fear was a label applied by professional politicians to dismiss the genuine opinions of people who actually knew what they were talking about.

As it is, the UK has gone in two years from the best economic performer in the EU to the worst, and every prediction of how badly the divorce proceedings would go seem to come true. There’s quite a few people who use the phrase Project Fact now.

Ironically, the Vote Leave campaign was characterised by stoking fact-free fear about immigration.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say that, but then we currently have almost limitless incompetence at the highest levels of government. So many aspects of Brexit that have been completely not thought about. The idea of an absolute trade barrier with our largest trading partner being thrown around as a valid idea. I could easily see a malfunctioning government unilaterally deporting EU citizens.

pure hysteria given they're barely able to deport a couple of hundred failed asylum seekers, millions of EU citizens (many of whom aren't registered or on any sort of database) is not simply not possible

The whole “not registered” thing is part of the problem — either the UK guarantees to continue allowing all EU-27 citizens who enter the UK to stay, or EU-27 citizens already in the UK have to be prepared for spontaneous deportation when someone notices they’re not UK citizens. The third opinion, to force registration, would be sensible, but is impossible partly because ID databases are politically impossible, and partly because the UK government is incompetent.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#219
post #90
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Think that's going to bite Nige Disagree. He said before the referendum that 48%-52% would be unfinished business, but didn’t seem to lose credibility amongst his supporters from it. Something may eventually tarnish his Teflon, but he’d probably be able to turn defeat in a second referendum into a rallying cry for a literal attempted revolution. (I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10%).

> I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10% Hmm. Does that include resumption of armed conflict in NI? That's a possibility but there's no real tradition of this in England. I'm somewhat surprised there haven't been anti-Brexit riots but I can only assume that MI5 is pro-Brexit and actively disrupting their organisation. I can't see how we'd actually get to armed conflict unless the government sta…

Good question. No, I’d rate that as both more likely and independent, as I see the likely causes of each as mostly independent — NI catching fire is mostly down to the NI-RoI border closing or being guarded/inspected (disclaimer: I’m not from that area and people who are often tell me It’s More Complicated Than That), while everyone else in the UK catching fire depends on Brexit being both harmful and surprising people by being harmful.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#220
post #188
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU is more than an economic union. In fact, economic integration was/is only one of the strategies to foster lasting European stability, peace and path towards harmony among warring neighbours. To face these negotiations only on the basis of economic gains/lost is ignoring the political and less tangible goals of the union.

So far as I can tell the major arguments about in/out are almost always hinged on the economics, because everything else is much more subjective. I don't know that a lot of people in the UK are sympathetic to the idea that our membership of the EU is what's keeping the peace.

UK membership may not be the keystone of peace (which is good, IMHO) but it does not mean its membership does not contribute to said peace. I agree it is subjective. But I'd argued most people would think this subjective goal is worth of the effort it costs.
Post reply on HN