Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 235 posts

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#181

Post by rusk »

nkkollaw wrote: post #161
rusk wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life in Poland is pretty great, What's the story with unemployment there these days? I read recently it was among the highest in Europe?

Nope. You're probably confusing Poland with Greece. Poland's unemployment rate is about 100% better than Ireland, Italy, France, and others and almost 50% better than the EU. In big cities is perceptively non-existant among young people (my perception and my girlfriend's). Here is a chart: https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate...

Okay my bad. Hard to separate truth from fiction with everything that comes across in the media these days.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#182

Post by DanBC »

ljf wrote: post #148
DanBC wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's little to no evidence yet of any exodus of highly skilled workforces The NHS has plenty of evidence that EU workers (doctors, nurses, allied health professionals -- all skilled staff, all hard to replace from UK recruits) are leaving, and that's despite the clear assurances given by SoS Health that EU NHS staff are guaranteed to be allowed to stay. EDIT: the guarantee of being allowed to stay was provided r…

Indeed, here are two articles for those that are downvoting. Brexit: One in five EU doctors make plans to leave NHS because of withdrawal - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-nhs-doctors-... European nurses and midwives leaving UK in droves since Brexit vote - https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/02/european-nur...

Here's a UK government report: http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summ...

And here's a link to the NHS Digital Workforce statistics:

http://content.digital.nhs.uk/workforce

One example file is here: http://content.digital.nhs.uk/media/23993/Leavers-by-age-and...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#183

Post by pjc50 »

DanBC wrote: post #145
raverbashing wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countri…

> Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries The racists don't believe this, and want to get rid of those workers, and (delusionally) think we can train our own nurses and doctors and allied health professionals. They just want europeans out, and they'd vote brexit…

> all EU NHS staff have already been told that they're guaranteed to be allowed to stay in the UK

Could you provide a reference for this? I hope it's true but I've missed the announcement.

> All bookaks are blue. Are all blue things bookaks?

Blue passports, dammit! (Which were in reality black)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#184

Post by rusk »

crdoconnor wrote: post #171
rusk wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If all the valuable talent is gone surely that means I'm going to be worth more? I'd be more inclined to think, deadweight losses notwithstanding, that this means a lot of the work will go elsewhere ..

This would presumably mean fewer roles advertised. I haven't noticed that either.

I alluded to a deadweight, or economic intertia, so yeah ... it's early days yet ... but it doesn't really matter because Brexit probably won't happen the way most people think it will ...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#185

Post by oblio »

rusk wrote: post #107
pjc50 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On this subject of not having a choice in accepting rules: https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/no-deal-wont-happen-e185f9... "This is a tale of three dates. On 13th August 1969 the Irish Taoiseach went on television and called on the United Nations to send a peacekeeping into the United Kingdom to protect Irish people in Derry and Belfast. On 30th January 1972 the Parachute Regiment massacred 13 people on Bloody Sunday…

I just want to highlight an an interesting parallel you've drawn here, between the "sovereignty" Ireland obtained leaving the UK, and the "sovereignty" the UK, or rather parts of England and Wales hope to obtain by leaving the EU. Though we define ourselves as "different" from the English, we are very much "the same" in a great many respects, and there is nobody more like us in this world than the English. In that re…

The EU is not "putting down" the UK economically.

And the UK can't really become a major tax haven (too many citizens, it would draw way too many resources from every big country... and too much attention).

I don't think the analogy holds.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#186

Post by marrs »

ddalex wrote: post #154
marrs wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing access to the free market would be fine if we gain access to the global market, at least in the medium to long term. The ability to drop tariffs on imports would be a big deal even in the short term. In reality, though, I don't see us leaving the trappings of the EU with this current govt: we'll just lose our seat at the table (to coin a phrase). This was never going to be quick, though: the Brexit issue will…

> slow erosion of our sovereignty What exactly are changes in the UK's sovereignity?

The UK govt spends a lot of its time rubber stamping EU legislation, which is largely corporatist, not individualist.

I don't have time to give this reply the attention it deserves, but consider that it is now illegal to sell your home made jam in your local charity shop, and it was almost made illegal to tinker with your own motor vehicle. Then there's the never ending torrent of health and safety legislation.

These things aren't intended to destroy individual sovereignty, but that's what they end up doing. Perhaps this sort of thing matters more to the British than other nationals. An Englishman's home is his castle, as they saying goes.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#187

Post by kypro »

te_chris wrote: post #178
kypro wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your definition of replaced? If Europeans didn't kill any native Americans, but just replaced them demographically despite the them not consenting would that be moral in your opinion? Because that's what's happening. And are you suggesting the EU's free movement isn't a thing? What exactly makes it so difficult for someone from Eastern Europe to come to the UK?

As an immigrant to the UK from not-the-EU, I can tell you that Mrs. May's time at the home office has turned UK immigration policy into a clusterfuck that works against the interests of the country and forces smart people who the UK didn't have to pay to educate (from Australasia in my experience) to leave, despite them having good jobs and paying tax here.

Yeah, non-EU immigrants do get fucked over, because the immigration system is basically racially preferenced to European immigrants. Non-EU immigrants have to get through countless barriers those coming from the EU don't.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#188

Post by Nursie »

627467 wrote: post #104
Nursie wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trade with one of the world's larger economies. There is clear mutual interest in continuing trade on an open basis. I'm not saying the EU is not in a stronger position, nor am I trying to make any claims that Brexit is good or bad, nor that it is being pursued competently by the current government (far from it). But the assessment of the process as being entirely one sided seems to me to be simplistic.

The EU is more than an economic union. In fact, economic integration was/is only one of the strategies to foster lasting European stability, peace and path towards harmony among warring neighbours. To face these negotiations only on the basis of economic gains/lost is ignoring the political and less tangible goals of the union.

So far as I can tell the major arguments about in/out are almost always hinged on the economics, because everything else is much more subjective.

I don't know that a lot of people in the UK are sympathetic to the idea that our membership of the EU is what's keeping the peace.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#189

Post by pjc50 »

adventured wrote: post #134
moomin wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

In your opinion, what do you think the consequences with regards to Scotland will be given some time? Might they seek another independence vote to then rejoin the EU?

Yes, but everyone is aware that we would normally get one vote no more frequently than every 20-30 years on the subject. It has to be after the outcome of Brexit is clear. Which may mean short-term disastrous exit from the EU.

(e.g. while Scottish fishermen have a noisy anti-EU contingent, the fish processing industry relies on EU workers and also mostly exports to the EU due to differences in UK and Continental preferences in seafood. People will need to see the actual consequences resolve before they will change their view.)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#190

Post by collyw »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #139
collyw wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Brit working in Europe, one year and a half after the announcement I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. It makes sense to at least know what the worst possible scenario is. We have a Prime Minister who was against Brexit pushing for a hard Brexit. An opposition leader who is for Brexit. An uninformed public who were blatantly lied to (350 million a week to the NHS). The whole thing is an absolute s…

Even worse than that, 18 months later and we have absolutely no idea what anybody wants to happen !

"Brexit means Brexit", whatever that actually means.
Post reply on HN