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Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

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Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#171

Post by crdoconnor »

rusk wrote: post #159
crdoconnor wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. I don't think that's an accurate analysis. As far as I can tell the vote was driven mainly by economic distress, media (which papers you read) and community (a lot of people just voted the same way their friends or family did). >The London Tech scene (which skews left/liberal) seems to be hemorrhaging talented people to Berlin and other places. I know a lot of…

If all the valuable talent is gone surely that means I'm going to be worth more? I'd be more inclined to think, deadweight losses notwithstanding, that this means a lot of the work will go elsewhere ..

This would presumably mean fewer roles advertised. I haven't noticed that either.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#172

Post by marrs »

pjc50 wrote: post #61
marrs wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing access to the free market would be fine if we gain access to the global market, at least in the medium to long term. The ability to drop tariffs on imports would be a big deal even in the short term. In reality, though, I don't see us leaving the trappings of the EU with this current govt: we'll just lose our seat at the table (to coin a phrase). This was never going to be quick, though: the Brexit issue will…

> the ability to drop tariffs on imports would be a big deal even in the short term That is, the benefit is the ability to replace British-made goods with cheaper foreign imports? I'm just saying because normally people make the argument the other way round.

Exactly so. Well, British and European goods.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#173

Post by marrs »

sornars wrote: post #135
marrs wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. I've never understood this argument. Surely all you have to do is write a law that says: in the absence of British law, default to EU legislation. That's the essence of the great repeal bill, is it not? They have to negotiate with the EU so that they're not completely…

I've never understood this argument. Surely all you have to do is write a law that says: in the absence of British law, default to EU legislation. That's the essence of the great repeal bill, is it not? My understanding of one of the big issues with defaulting to EU law is that disputes under EU law are settled by the ECJ and EU regulatory bodies (which are governed by ECJ rulings). This is not suitable for post-Brex…

Thanks for clarifying that for me.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#174

Post by blibble »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #168
blibble wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

even a future hypothetical dystopian government would be smarter than that no need to deport anyone when they could slowly withdraw the right to work (say when someone swaps jobs)

You say that, but then we currently have almost limitless incompetence at the highest levels of government. So many aspects of Brexit that have been completely not thought about. The idea of an absolute trade barrier with our largest trading partner being thrown around as a valid idea. I could easily see a malfunctioning government unilaterally deporting EU citizens.

pure hysteria

given they're barely able to deport a couple of hundred failed asylum seekers, millions of EU citizens (many of whom aren't registered or on any sort of database) is not simply not possible

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#175

Post by kypro »

raverbashing wrote: post #156
kypro wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is you can't have a multiple choice referendum because it would split the leave vote. For example: A. "Hard" Brexit B. "Soft" Brexit C. No Brexit Brexitors would be somewhat split between A and B, and all remainers would pick C. Can I add some disclaimers to? * Tick here if you are aware there are shortages of doctors and nurses (and other skilled professions) in eastern European countries like Romania be…

> Tick here if you understand while in the EU the UK has effectively zero control over it's immigration and trade. - "its" not "it's" - the UK retains some control of immigration w.r.t EU citizens (some of which they chose not to enforce and it also allows UK citizens to avail of freedom of movement as well) and full control of the immigration of non-EU citizens, so your assertion is false - Brain drain is debatable,…

> the UK retains some control of immigration w.r.t EU citizens (some of which they chose not to enforce and it also allows UK citizens to avail of freedom of movement as well) and full control of the immigration of non-EU citizens, so your assertion is false

As you probably know the control the UK does have over EU citizens is extremely extremely limit. They don't call it "open borders" for no reason believe it or not.

> Brain drain is debatable, there was never a position for a lot of them in the 1st place (and they might just go somewhere else)

Yeah, well who cares about developing countries as long as the west benefits right? Perhaps we should be focusing on giving them positions in their own countries rather than requiring them to move from their families, friends and culture just for a better life?

But morals never play a role in this. It's all about the nations gross-GDP isn't it?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#176

Post by moomin »

adventured wrote: post #134
moomin wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

In your opinion, what do you think the consequences with regards to Scotland will be given some time? Might they seek another independence vote to then rejoin the EU?

My take: The evidence right now is that the SNP are all in favour of a second independence referendum, but that Scottish people in general are not. Scotland's caught between a rock and a hard place. It wants to be in the EU but the majority of its trade is with England.

Charlie Stross famously gave up on his Rule 34 series of novels because he was having trouble predicting where Scotland would be in ten years. It's still not obvious and is probably going to be governed by future events.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#177

Post by pjc50 »

kypro wrote: post #170
pjc50 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> while in the EU the UK has effectively zero control over it's immigration and trade This isn't true though.

Okay, please tell me what restrictions are in place to stop someone from Poland immigrating to the UK? Also, are you suggesting the EU doesn't have open borders?

The EU requires a right to work and a right to join family. Someone migrating from Poland by themselves without a job is not technically doing so under freedom of movement and the UK is not obliged to let them be a resident.

The treaties do contain restriction mechanisms which the UK didn't use: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/richard-bird/immigration-bla...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#178

Post by te_chris »

kypro wrote: post #155
pjc50 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> politicians have always ignored this request They absolutely haven't - policy has been rewritten over the past couple of decades to make immigration extremely difficult. What I suspect is going on is that some people want the absolute number of non-"ethnically british" people reduced, which is ethically impossible given that many were in fact born here or already achieved ILR. Nobody is being "replaced".

What's your definition of replaced? If Europeans didn't kill any native Americans, but just replaced them demographically despite the them not consenting would that be moral in your opinion? Because that's what's happening. And are you suggesting the EU's free movement isn't a thing? What exactly makes it so difficult for someone from Eastern Europe to come to the UK?

As an immigrant to the UK from not-the-EU, I can tell you that Mrs. May's time at the home office has turned UK immigration policy into a clusterfuck that works against the interests of the country and forces smart people who the UK didn't have to pay to educate (from Australasia in my experience) to leave, despite them having good jobs and paying tax here.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#179

Post by moomin »

crdoconnor wrote: post #119
moomin wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

>Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. I don't think that's an accurate analysis. As far as I can tell the vote was driven mainly by economic distress, media (which papers you read) and community (a lot of people just voted the same way their friends or family did). >The London Tech scene (which skews left/liberal) seems to be hemorrhaging talented people to Berlin and other places. I know a lot of…

Funny you mention economic distress, because people always seem to ascribe the Trump victory to it to. Except that it's not borne out by any actual analysis of who voted and who didn't.

Yes, some very depressed areas voted for Brexit. But Liverpool didn't, and it's seriously poor.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#180

Post by pjc50 »

rusk wrote: post #152
karmelapple wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my little time in the UK right before the Brexit vote, similar patterns emerged in public discourse about the vote. Disclaimed: anecdata below. From the few people I talked to, both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,” rather than having real strong reasons and desired outcomes in favor of voting one way or the other. It was a fear-driven vote, one to…

both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,” Absolutely, this. The remain campaign was actually labelled "Project Fear" [0], I mean if that doesn't say it all I don't know what does .. There was never, any actual discussion of what brexit means. How it would look. What consitutional adjustments would be made. Simply a binary "Stay" or "Leave" on the Ballot, wh…

As a Remainer who voted Yes in the Scottish Indyref, I strongly agree. What it seems to me happened is that Cameron drew exactly the wrong lesson from the Indyref. He thought Project Fear worked there, despite the vote moving from strong No to close No over the course of the campaign. So he replicated the strategy. What he hadn't realised was how corrosive a demoralisation-based strategy that relied on the collusion of the three main supposedly opposed parties was.

Ongoing, Brexit is being run entirely in essay-crisis mode. Nothing will happen until the last minute. The process will run on the EU timetable with the EU's preferred outcomes unless and until the UK government collapses and is unable to send anyone. Nobody from the UK side is proposing serious, workable options.

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