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Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

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Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#141

Post by nkkollaw »

b5 wrote: post #123
mkohlmyr wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your first argument boils down to "it's difficult to leave so why bother". That's an objectively terrible reason to stay, no matter your political affiliation or feelings about the EU. As far as the "old people did this to us" meme. The 75% of young people who purportedly are so strongly against brexit probably should have bothered to vote if they wanted that outcome. Additionally, there are other factors than just a…

And if we afford those people a bit of empathy rather than casting them all as gullible fools or bad people, we might consider that they actually stand to benefit far less (or have plausible reasons to feel this way) from the EU than someone (such as the average HN reader) who has the privilege to e.g. be choosy about employment opportunities, be able to afford educating themselves, be able to afford to travel at wil…

Rationally, I agree with you. But if I went with my guts, from the little I know it was old people selling/ruining young people's life.

I'd be pretty pissed off, too.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#142

Post by rusk »

nkkollaw wrote: post #130
rusk wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also not entirely sure how well the Polish line holds of late either. Hasn't there been a bunch of religious conservatives elected there lately? I honestly don't know if what I'm reading is propaganda any more but it seems they were doing lots of ugly things like cracking down on free speech.

> Hasn't there been a bunch of religious conservatives elected there lately? Yes, like are most Poles. It makes sense, no..? Not my cup of tea, but what's wrong with that? > I honestly don't know if what I'm reading is propaganda any more but it seems they were doing lots of ugly things like cracking down on free speech. It's partly true. You're talking about an incident where they fined a newspaper for their coverag…

Life in Poland is pretty great,

What's the story with unemployment there these days? I read recently it was among the highest in Europe?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#143

Post by maze-le »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #129
maze-le wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.

Versus an EU population of c.750 Million. We in the UK need the EU (eg for trade) more than they need us.

I don't think 750M is correct, its more like 510M. But I concur with your last statement.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#144

Post by pjc50 »

kypro wrote: post #124
arethuza wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The irony is that Brexit will almost certainly mean an increase in immigration from non-EU countries - which is bad economically (EU migrants tend to be contributors to the UK economy and non-EU migrants don't - mainly due to the latter moving later in life with families) and, I suspect, not what a lot of leave voters were actually wanting to happen.

This is an interesting point, which may very well be the end result of Brexit. However, what was the alternative? The UK public have consistently asked their politicians to reduce immigration since the 60s and this has been reflected over and over again in poll data. However, politicians have always ignored this request and while the UK is in the EU politicians have very little control over total number anyway. So ba…

> politicians have always ignored this request

They absolutely haven't - policy has been rewritten over the past couple of decades to make immigration extremely difficult.

What I suspect is going on is that some people want the absolute number of non-"ethnically british" people reduced, which is ethically impossible given that many were in fact born here or already achieved ILR.

Nobody is being "replaced".

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#145

Post by DanBC »

raverbashing wrote: post #77
kypro wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?

Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countri…

> Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries

The racists don't believe this, and want to get rid of those workers, and (delusionally) think we can train our own nurses and doctors and allied health professionals. They just want europeans out, and they'd vote brexit.[1]

But government knows that the NHS cannot run without immigrant staff, and all EU NHS staff have already been told that they're guaranteed to be allowed to stay in the UK. (Although this has happened very late, and many staff have already left).

So we've ended up at a situation that is worse for everyone: the racists are unhappy because we've increase non-EU immigration, and because we've guaranteed residence for EU NHS staff; the NHS is unhappy because employing staff is now much harder (and it's already hard enough).

[1] for clairty: I'm not saying everyone who voted Brexit is like this. (All bookaks are blue. Are all blue things bookaks?)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#146

Post by pjc50 »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #121
pjc50 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10% Hmm. Does that include resumption of armed conflict in NI? That's a possibility but there's no real tradition of this in England. I'm somewhat surprised there haven't been anti-Brexit riots but I can only assume that MI5 is pro-Brexit and actively disrupting their organisation. I can't see how we'd actually get to armed conflict unless the government sta…

I would reckon there have been no anti-Brexit riots primarily because Brexit isn't really the end of the world – it's just a ludicrously stupid, badly-handled, long-term-damaging project. It's hard to get riot-angry that "living conditions will get gradually worse over the next decade"

A lot depends on what happens to the EU nationals currently resident here. At some point their status will be crystallised. It's unlikely but if the government goes for "everyone now has 6 weeks to leave or you're deported", that's riot material.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#147

Post by kypro »

raverbashing wrote: post #77
kypro wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?

Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countri…

The problem is you can't have a multiple choice referendum because it would split the leave vote. For example: A. "Hard" Brexit

B. "Soft" Brexit

C. No Brexit

Brexitors would be somewhat split between A and B, and all remainers would pick C.

Can I add some disclaimers to?

* Tick here if you are aware there are shortages of doctors and nurses (and other skilled professions) in eastern European countries like Romania because trained professionals tend to come to western Europe to work. This is also true for developing countries.

* Tick here if you understand while in the EU the UK has effectively zero control over it's immigration and trade.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#148

Post by ljf »

DanBC wrote: post #80
cmdkeen wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I appreciate Brexit hasn't happened yet there's little to no evidence yet of any exodus of highly skilled workforces. London remains an incredibly attractive destination for inflows of both investment, workers and tourists. Will some companies leave, no doubt, however the high profile mass departure of European HQs and banks has yet to bear out. To the OP, and going back to the article, a major issue is that of…

> there's little to no evidence yet of any exodus of highly skilled workforces The NHS has plenty of evidence that EU workers (doctors, nurses, allied health professionals -- all skilled staff, all hard to replace from UK recruits) are leaving, and that's despite the clear assurances given by SoS Health that EU NHS staff are guaranteed to be allowed to stay. EDIT: the guarantee of being allowed to stay was provided r…

Indeed, here are two articles for those that are downvoting.

Brexit: One in five EU doctors make plans to leave NHS because of withdrawal - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-nhs-doctors-...

European nurses and midwives leaving UK in droves since Brexit vote - https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/02/european-nur...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#149

Post by blibble »

ljf wrote: post #138
blibble wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ah yes, the old "fake news" argument the data is from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_...

Note that is from 2015 - long before brexit. 'if' the UK stops immigration then that number will no doubt be smaller. Quote: Between 2015 and 2050, the top net receivers of international migrants (more than 100,000 annually) are projected to be the United States of America, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, the Russian Federation and Italy.

presumably some level of political change in the 35 year period is accounted for in their model

regardless, under both the Conservatives and Labour immigration would never "stop", regardless of leaving the EU

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#150

Post by pjc50 »

kypro wrote: post #147
raverbashing wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countri…

The problem is you can't have a multiple choice referendum because it would split the leave vote. For example: A. "Hard" Brexit B. "Soft" Brexit C. No Brexit Brexitors would be somewhat split between A and B, and all remainers would pick C. Can I add some disclaimers to? * Tick here if you are aware there are shortages of doctors and nurses (and other skilled professions) in eastern European countries like Romania be…

> while in the EU the UK has effectively zero control over it's immigration and trade

This isn't true though.

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