Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper? • Hacker News Board

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#91

Post by crdoconnor » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:18 PM UTC

nkkollaw wrote: post #18

forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

More than chaos I'm worried that it's going to be used as an excuse to ram through a lot of unpopular and horrible reforms 'under the radar'. Maybe NHS sell offs or a tax hike on "people who work" similar to recent Trump one.

You could practically see the Tories salivating when they mulled over the great repeal bill.

There are some positives - bringing the pound down is good for manufacturing output and employment. This is especially good for some of the more neglected areas of the UK. Of course, that will only give Londoners more reason to despise them - it's probably going to be worst for the London economy.

>It's old people in the country that have decided this

Actually that's not really true:

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/10/brexit-cry-financial...

Just going to point out here that Brexit appears to be the ultimate in identitarian politics and that identitarian politics is all about divide and conquer and leave it at that.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#92

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:18 PM UTC

adwhit wrote: post #8

A real shame that Oxford decided to name their department after an oligarch who expropriated huge wealth out of Russia [1]. Sad to admit I consider any position associated with the Blavatnik name tainted. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/nov/03/oxford-uni...

[deleted]

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#93

Post by stevekemp » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:18 PM UTC

collyw wrote: post #15

Nursie wrote: post #2

This seems speculative and it effectively posits a worst-of-all-worlds situation resulting - one if which the UK is half inside the single market. Half inside such that it allows the flow of goods (the UK is a net importer) but not services (which we net export). This would be untenable, worse than a no-deal situation. And the basis of this speculation is that the EU is holding all the cards. I'm really not convinced…

As a Brit working in Europe, one year and a half after the announcement I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. It makes sense to at least know what the worst possible scenario is. We have a Prime Minister who was against Brexit pushing for a hard Brexit. An opposition leader who is for Brexit. An uninformed public who were blatantly lied to (350 million a week to the NHS). The whole thing is an absolute s…

I'm in much the same position. Working for a UK-company, getting paid in UK pounds sterling, but living in Europe.

The whole thing is farcical, and I can only imagine it will become increasingly so as we near the deadline.

I hope the UK changes its mind, but even if they do too many things will have been broken in the process.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#94

Post by emptyfile » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:19 PM UTC

moomin wrote: post #67

rusk wrote: post #53

I kind of feel the whimper came before Christmas, in the talks discussing Northern Ireland and the status of the border there between the UK and Europe. I can't remember the details exactly but the Good Friday Agreement [0] provided a constitutional footing whereby the UK effectively gave an undertaking to abide by the rules of the EU trade area, while not being a member of the EU trade area . This to prevent the ere…

The Good Friday Agreement basically makes the UK (or Ireland) the single worst country to attempt to leave the EU. The biggest problem with the December declaration being that it's hard to trust the government to make good on it. (The consequences for being seen to be negotiating in bad faith are too awful to contemplate, but the government seems to be post-rational a lot of the time.)

Within a week Davis said something to the effect of, "this deal is not really legally binding".

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#95

Post by hammon » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:19 PM UTC

this euro currency is set to die. The only question is WHEN. Unfortunately, economists are not the ones to decide, but the only politicians are. And people vote ignorant politicians and talk about macro-economy like they do on football matches. In the long run, Brexit will be a GOOD thing for the British but for the wrong reason (xenophobia).

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#96

Post by karmelapple » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:20 PM UTC

moomin wrote: post #58

StanAngeloff wrote: post #5

As a EU resident who is a partner in several UK based businesses, the uncertainty over what's coming next is frightening. When I approached different colleagues, friends & family in the UK, they all had different views on what should happen. To an outsider, it looks like opinions have been polarised. If you are managing a business that has ties to the UK there are very many unknowns right now. It's a lot easier to pl…

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

From my little time in the UK right before the Brexit vote, similar patterns emerged in public discourse about the vote.

Disclaimed: anecdata below.

From the few people I talked to, both the leave and remain group seemed to leave voters mostly thinking, “the other choice sounds bad,” rather than having real strong reasons and desired outcomes in favor of voting one way or the other. It was a fear-driven vote, one to avoid a bad outcome rather than gain a good outcome.

Similar to the US Presidential election, people tended to have stronger opinions against the other candidate than for their own candidate.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#97

Post by arethuza » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:20 PM UTC

raverbashing wrote: post #77

kypro wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?

Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countri…

The irony is that Brexit will almost certainly mean an increase in immigration from non-EU countries - which is bad economically (EU migrants tend to be contributors to the UK economy and non-EU migrants don't - mainly due to the latter moving later in life with families) and, I suspect, not what a lot of leave voters were actually wanting to happen.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#98

Post by alkonaut » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:20 PM UTC

forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

I live in Sweden and never even thought about how Germany "dominates". Is it just because I come from a much smaller country with much smaller population and therefore much smaller expectations about what we can accomplish on the world stage? Or is it because our views align much better with those of Germany, so we are part of the same "bloc" in EU politics whereas the UK would want to pull in another direction but can't?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#99

Post by pbhjpbhj » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:21 PM UTC

Xylakant wrote: post #10

Nursie wrote: post #2

This seems speculative and it effectively posits a worst-of-all-worlds situation resulting - one if which the UK is half inside the single market. Half inside such that it allows the flow of goods (the UK is a net importer) but not services (which we net export). This would be untenable, worse than a no-deal situation. And the basis of this speculation is that the EU is holding all the cards. I'm really not convinced…

So far negotiations have shown the EU holds most of the important cards. The UK caved in on any negotiation demand. It’s a fascinating view from Germany: The UK threatens “No Deal”, the EU informs companies that “No Deal” is a possible outcome and plans contingencies, informs companies that they should too, UK now complains that EU threatens companies. UK says “Out means out”, EU prepares to move EU institutions abro…

>Which other option does the UK realistically have for those things other than just accept the EU rules? //

I'm not sure if it was a main driver but the powers that are pushing this whole thing behind the scenes clearly have realised the opportunity to subtely rewrite a lot of regulations/legislation to prefer their interests.

The "sovereignty" part of Brexit is playing out as taking power from a more socialist and green EU and giving it to the hidden capitalist interests behind the Tories.

The incredible sleight-of-hand has been getting the working classes to vote for something that could then be twisted to be so highly detrimental to them.

Anyway, to your question about industry regulations: safety, food standards, and environmentalism costs money. Companies within the EU trading block will sell the stuff that meets the regulations, UK will get to have cheap stuff that breaks easily and no longer have the 2 year 'warranty', or the restrictions on unfair business practices - UK companies will try and foist our lower standards on whoever we can fool in to it, eg with promises of "foreign aid" that end up in developing world officials bank accounts. Bonus, the workers making the stuff will get paid less, have less job security, less rights.

Double bonus, UK environment will be open for capitalists to fuck up if they want to make a quick buck.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#100

Post by pjc50 » Thu, Jan 11, 2018, 1:22 PM UTC

moomin wrote: post #58

StanAngeloff wrote: post #5

As a EU resident who is a partner in several UK based businesses, the uncertainty over what's coming next is frightening. When I approached different colleagues, friends & family in the UK, they all had different views on what should happen. To an outsider, it looks like opinions have been polarised. If you are managing a business that has ties to the UK there are very many unknowns right now. It's a lot easier to pl…

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

Yes, the polarization is deliberate, following the US culture war template or the older UK colonial practice. Keep the population fighting each other to prevent them uniting to focus on the real inequalities. Lots of people in the most marginalised parts of the country voted for Brexit in an attack on "elites", but of course the "elite"(+) running Brexit aren't going to start caring about Lowestoft.

(+) used with heavy sarcasm to describe the current lot http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/reshuffle-cabinet-priv...