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Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

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Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#61

Except for the Singularity trashing, this talk feels like a rehash of reading your average Reddit political thread. I really wanted more than that. I think the political left viewed dialectical materialism as their futurism and now that that's gone with the fall of communism there's just doom. Global warming doom. Hyper-capitalism doom. Race war doom. Overpopulation doom. Evil AI overlord doom. They can't see the fut…

There is some light but it's from obscure political ideologies.

Nakamoto's Bitcoin, Yarvin's Urbit, Friedman's Seasteading.*

These seem concerned with the technical debt we have, used loosely.

As the famous Ycombinator talk by Balaji Srinivasan pointed out these kinds of projects have a common theme of starting from first principals.

I blame the stagnation on the rejection of nuclear energy and biotechnology by our society. We built a fine collection of mythological fog stories around each of them, nuclear might produce mutant children and kill us all, biotechnology might produce race/class war (more mutants). Where have all of these misanthropic ideas been cultivated? Hollywood and the Universities. Actually I blame people like Mr Stross for this, the breed of people who decided we had a moral imperative not to support the use of these technologies.

The piles of fissile material, petri dishes and computer circuits don't contain any urge to murder us all. The existential funk started proper I think like yourself, with the failure of Communism, and then a loss of faith in democracy (increasing numbers of non-voters), lots of apathy.

This is why I feel like we should revitalize the old Victorian spirit of exploration, get the body moving, work together in gentleperson clubs (hacker spaces) and that shall produce more optimistic individuals. Then when we toy with new ideas we shall be less so inclined to view them darkly. I'm open to suggestions.

* To Charlie (who will be reading this thread and can tell me exactly what he thinks) I suspect these sorts of possibilities have a whiff of sulfur about them? I'm also curious to know if you've read Nick Land's essays. Context: Yarvin/Land are accusing Mr Stross of the thing he was flaking the transhumanists with, namely that his socio-political (socialist-democrat?) beliefs are a thinly veiled form of Christianity, where original sin is discrimination and paradise is multicultural utopia.

I suppose after a thousand or so years it kind of seeps in everywhere even when it becomes assumed it is on its last legs.

The story of slow moving AI is compelling, but since The Election there has been 24 hour news/outrage coverage of how we're all going to hell ever since - so at least one paperclip maximizer has influenced the motivation to make the talk.

The trouble I think is that nearly everything I can imagine Mr Stross supporting as progress basically backfires because at least half the public will have you for lunch over infringements to liberties. Once you're being tossed between the bulls horns of the left and right it's hard to imagine positive outcomes. At the start of the talk microtransactions were mentioned. That seems like a much better route because it is not partisan in nature.

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#62
post #44
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His discussion of corporations being actual, literal AIs in the mould of the Chinese Room [0] I found fascinating. He jokes in the Q&A that he wants an app that finds the 3% of the sociopaths out there. I like the connection to the Book / film The Corporation [1], that labels all corporations as psychopaths. So you don't need an app to find them. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room [1]: http://thecorporat…

The only similarity between cooperations and AGI is that they are superhuman optimization processes that yield considerable risk and that are tricky to control. The difference is that in case of cooperations there still is a human element: vulnerability/fallibility, social reputation/integration, slowness/interpretability, empathy. The policies for mitigating the respective risks are very different.

He connects the corporation to the description of the Chinese Room. A corporation is a very big room full of people with human level intelligence under an artificial union acting as one.

Perhaps you can find other areas where that breaks down, but as far as reasonable guesses as to what will happen with AI in the near furture, this is the best I've heard so far.

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#63
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

communism didn't really exist to fall in the first place Come on, we can do better here than the tired old “not real communism” argument. it just means that we didn't have the right data, or perhaps we need a new analysis Ah yes, always followed by “it will be different next time”. How many millions more have to die?

Real communism was tried and worked – in communities under 100-200 people (like kibutzim). This feeling of community, where people truly care about one another, is detrimental for communism to work – and turns out, millions of people can be shaped into something similar only under a terror and propaganda machine. Free people will never care about millions of their "comrades" the same way the can care about their 100-…

I think you meant to s/detrimental/fundamental/

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#64
Some comments as watching video...

Corporation as AI is good analogy. But as with many, he stops short and repeatedly just says corporations. Please, every large group entity - governmental bodies, unions, non-profits - is an AI. And with/in those groups (and corporations) are also competing AIs.

Comments about weaponized social media: It is odd that we in the West don't want to acknowledge / know / accept the US government and US tech firm roles in the Arab Spring and Ukraine. If we even go further back, really Wikileaks were the true pioneers in weaponizing social media.

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#65
post #53

Except for the Singularity trashing, this talk feels like a rehash of reading your average Reddit political thread. I really wanted more than that. I think the political left viewed dialectical materialism as their futurism and now that that's gone with the fall of communism there's just doom. Global warming doom. Hyper-capitalism doom. Race war doom. Overpopulation doom. Evil AI overlord doom. They can't see the fut…

I agree, but I'd add the failure of Christian eschatology to materialize at the millennium. Whether openly stated or not this was a huge chunk of the right's vision of the future. There were a lot of people who thought 9/11 and Iraq was the beginning of the end times, which are followed by the return of Christ and the literal kingdom of God on Earth. Now they have their own race war doom, China will eat the world doo…

There is something in what you say.

I have to say I think this conflation of altright and neonazi is lazy in the extreme. By the media and most posters here.

Democratic socialism has overlapping territory with communism but we wouldn't say Sweden == Soviet Union.

> those ideologies have at their core the idea of resisting cultural and civilizational decline. I personally think their scapegoats, theories, and solutions are all BS but they're getting somewhere because they are talking about the problem.

I find the most incisive statements are to be found among the neoreactionaries and technocommericalists, with Thiel's loosely associated Stagnation Hypothesis being compelling to me.

> The angst comes from the secondary implication that the future is not set and magic will not happen and that we are actually going to have to deal with our problems.

He says "we can't sit and wait for the movie of the future to unfold", it's the same idea.

The ray of light there is that it is put forward that our funk is to do with social changes in how we think or past civilizational technical debt. A good example of that thought from Hollywood is Interstellar.

I feel like it used to be the case that "change how we think can change who we are/what happens" used to come from the left but now it's coming from the right. The right looks at past glories and says we must change to get to something better, the left says it is all terrible and we must prevent anything from going wrong which means everything must stay the same.

There's been a weird role reversal of some sort.

> This will continue and will get worse until people get their heads out of the 20th century and start articulating new visions of the future.

I've yet to hear of an example of that from the left, the utopians have lost faith. I've listed some examples in my other post but like I said to people like Stross they likely smell of sulfur.

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#66
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but I'd add the failure of Christian eschatology to materialize at the millennium. Whether openly stated or not this was a huge chunk of the right's vision of the future. There were a lot of people who thought 9/11 and Iraq was the beginning of the end times, which are followed by the return of Christ and the literal kingdom of God on Earth. Now they have their own race war doom, China will eat the world doo…

There is something in what you say. I have to say I think this conflation of altright and neonazi is lazy in the extreme. By the media and most posters here. Democratic socialism has overlapping territory with communism but we wouldn't say Sweden == Soviet Union. > those ideologies have at their core the idea of resisting cultural and civilizational decline. I personally think their scapegoats, theories, and solution…

There are some very good criticisms from the alt-right. There are also great criticisms from the left and from the conventional right. It's easy to criticize. I always skip to "what's your solution?"

The solution offered by the alt-right is neo-monarchism and race nationalism. No thanks. Not only are these irrelevant and backward-looking but the latter is morally evil. Ironically it represents a rejection of the core of Western moral thought from Christianity through the enlightenment.

I agree to some extent with Thiel's stagnation hypothesis. I used to be really excited about him, thinking he got it and might work behind the scenes to try to re-invigorate a culture of genuine innovation in the West. But then he jumped on the alt-right horse and I lost interest.

One of the core hallmarks of a declining or at least demoralized/disillusioned civilization is looking backward. The right is now looking back to the Middle Ages, the 1930s, and the 1950s, while the left is still looking back to the 1960s. Reaction is what decline looks like.

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#67
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

communism didn't really exist to fall in the first place Come on, we can do better here than the tired old “not real communism” argument. it just means that we didn't have the right data, or perhaps we need a new analysis Ah yes, always followed by “it will be different next time”. How many millions more have to die?

It is an old argument because communism can mean different things. What you mean with communism I would rather call more precisely real socialism [1] Now those real socialist states had as their goal, or at least said so to achieve communism: "the establishment of the communist society, which is a socioeconomic order structured upon the common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes, mo…

> It is an old argument because communism can mean different things.

Actually, it has a very concrete definition. The only thing that's flexible is where will communists move the goalpost when another downside or systemic problem is pointed out.

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#68
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's fair to call all attempts so far "not reall communism". But you don't have to conclude "real communism would work". You can also conclude "real communism seems unimplementable". It is, after all, a social order that was created purely on paper and from theoretical arguments, which is ridiculous. That activity gives you something to try, but certainly not a fixed solution that you just need to implement a…

Its a typical low blow, akin to throwing all right-wing under the guise of Franco, the Weimar republic, or some other right-wing system. Communism has been implemented on small scale. One notable example in Spain [1], problem is that any large political system eventually turns out to be either authoritarian or ineffective or sabotaged (I leave the guess by whom as an exercise to the reader). Its also been applied in…

> ny large political system eventually turns out to be either authoritarian or ineffective

Your thoughts on seasteading, even as a hypothetical?

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#69

Except for the Singularity trashing, this talk feels like a rehash of reading your average Reddit political thread. I really wanted more than that. I think the political left viewed dialectical materialism as their futurism and now that that's gone with the fall of communism there's just doom. Global warming doom. Hyper-capitalism doom. Race war doom. Overpopulation doom. Evil AI overlord doom. They can't see the fut…

I'd disagree the political left was interested in dialectical materialism or anything to do with communism. Most of them are interested in a society with elements of socialism (education, healthcare) and capitalism. The reason many of us find doom is that the current administration in the US is blatantly corrupt and enabled by Congress.

Re: Dude, You Broke the Future [video]

#70
post #35
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

communism didn't really exist to fall in the first place Come on, we can do better here than the tired old “not real communism” argument. it just means that we didn't have the right data, or perhaps we need a new analysis Ah yes, always followed by “it will be different next time”. How many millions more have to die?

Millions fewer than died under centuries of global slavery and imperialism, which I'm sure you're not going to now claim is "not real capitalism".

It just doesn't ring true.

Both slavery and imperialism have had a long history before capitalism. Capitalism exists in circumstances with no plausible relationship to slavery or imperialism.

It annoys me because this dialectic is so obviously wrong.

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