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Lyft Self-Driving

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Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#41

Post by QAPereo »

philwelch wrote: post #24
yeukhon wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just that, getting self-driving approved with regulators is a major challenge. Also, to achieve level 5 we need not just algorithm improvement, our physical infrastructure need to be improved as well. On intersection, two human drivers wave at each other to decide who goes first. How should the human driver communicate with the machine? What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a st…

The algorithm doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to be a significant improvement over human beings. For every fatality an algorithm causes that a human would not, there could easily be ten fatalities prevented.

You do realize that most people won’t accept that, right? Worse, when the algorithm does kill someone, who is responsible?

Edit: Instead of just downvoting and moving on, why not actually formulate a response? Is there anything more empty than disagreement without the capacity to argue your case?

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#42

Post by greentrust »

evv wrote: post #9
ukulele wrote: post #3

This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will turn their current breakeven/loser business models into massive cash cows.

Clearly this is the thinking of both companies, but I'm not convinced it makes sense. The $13B that Uber paid out last year gave them access to a scalable network of ~7M vehicles, not just the drivers. Even if they reach level 5 autonomy before they run out of runway, how long will it take to build out a network of that size?

That's not 7M vehicles concurrently though. At any given time maybe there are a few hundred thousand trips happening. With self-driving cars utilization can go way up since they're not tied to a human. and. So I imagine Goog/Lyft/Uber etc would quickly acquire a fleet of 100k vehicles for a few billion dollars.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#43

Post by arcticfox »

tlb wrote: post #40
xandar11 wrote: post #29

I'm skeptical about all this. Hubert Horan [1] has done a great job exposing Uber's failed business model in 11 part series on NakedCapitalism ("Can Uber Ever Deliver?"). Same goes for Lyft. When it comes to self driving cars, why should Uber or Lyft have any massive advantage over other players and what makes us think it won't turn into something like an airline industry which has been unprofitable for most of their…

The airline industry is unprofitable mainly because the pilots capture most of the money. Their union gives them nearly unlimited pricing power. It's possibly that self-driving cars won't be profitable, but it certainly won't be for the same reason. There's reason to believe it'll be a winner-take-all market, because more data leads to lower crash rate which (in a world of rational consumers) will make them more popu…

Once we hit a minimum threshold of safety, don't you think other factors will become more important? Since when do consumers make choices solely based on safety? We would only see one type of car on the road if that was the case, whoever was winning the crash and avoidance tests that year.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#44

Post by melvinmt »

zitterbewegung wrote: post #14
toomuchtodo wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither Uber or Lyft will reach full autonomy before exhausting their runway, unless a miracle occurs and they solve level 5 within the next 1-2 years (caveat: it could happen, but it’s very unlikely). You can’t do hundreds of millions of dollars in raises forever without some proof of progress (or maybe you can if SoftBank is willing to pour money in for a decade). At some point, someone is going to be left holding…

I don't think level 5 would be the next step for self driving automation. The biggest ground based fleet with very high autonomy is John Deere. Therefore, I would expect large commercial trucking to be the next logical target. It would cut their costs alone by changing how much their insurance policies and general efficiency. John Deere trucks almost drive themselves. So, I would see trucking be replaced first. It lo…

Yep, you’re right on both points (trucking being the first industry that will adopt self-driving technology on mass-scale and the potential displacement of millions of jobs) but I’m not sure if John Deere will be spared in the process, only if they’re smart and see the same writing on the wall.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#45

Post by jsjohnst »

deepnotderp wrote: post #13
dorianm wrote: post #4

Looks like it's LIDAR-based, and it's a partnership with nuTonomy[1]. [1]: https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/06/lyfts-self-driving-pilot-w...

Source for LIDAR based?

Everybody who isn’t crazy is still looking towards LIDAR, at least in some fashion, to get to level 5. I’m not saying it’s required, just that anyone taking safety seriously hasn’t ruled out possibly needing it.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#46

Post by [deleted] »

melvinmt wrote: post #44
zitterbewegung wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think level 5 would be the next step for self driving automation. The biggest ground based fleet with very high autonomy is John Deere. Therefore, I would expect large commercial trucking to be the next logical target. It would cut their costs alone by changing how much their insurance policies and general efficiency. John Deere trucks almost drive themselves. So, I would see trucking be replaced first. It lo…

Yep, you’re right on both points (trucking being the first industry that will adopt self-driving technology on mass-scale and the potential displacement of millions of jobs) but I’m not sure if John Deere will be spared in the process, only if they’re smart and see the same writing on the wall.

[deleted]

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#47

Post by mherdeg »

If there's a 90% reduction in accidents, who will be providing the donor organs? What will happen to the average lifespan of people with certain chronic illnesses?

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#48

Post by alasdair_ »

tlb wrote: post #40
xandar11 wrote: post #29

I'm skeptical about all this. Hubert Horan [1] has done a great job exposing Uber's failed business model in 11 part series on NakedCapitalism ("Can Uber Ever Deliver?"). Same goes for Lyft. When it comes to self driving cars, why should Uber or Lyft have any massive advantage over other players and what makes us think it won't turn into something like an airline industry which has been unprofitable for most of their…

The airline industry is unprofitable mainly because the pilots capture most of the money. Their union gives them nearly unlimited pricing power. It's possibly that self-driving cars won't be profitable, but it certainly won't be for the same reason. There's reason to believe it'll be a winner-take-all market, because more data leads to lower crash rate which (in a world of rational consumers) will make them more popu…

>The airline industry is unprofitable mainly because the pilots capture most of the money. Their union gives them nearly unlimited pricing power.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average salary of a Commercial Pilot is $73,490 per year.

This seems low given the sheer number of hours of training involved.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#49

Post by jordache »

The traffic elimination claim is disingenuous. Surely they anticipate that as the avg traffic goes down, that just opens up for more volume of vehicles, thus reintroduces traffic problems

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#50

Post by labster »

rocky1138 wrote: post #21
elchief wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Love me that hacker ethos...

He or she is definitely right about the second point. For more detail on the thought behind the second point, read up on the Jevons Paradox if you're not already familiar with it. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox I'm not convinced about the first idea, though. I think we shouldn't get confused with equating not covering all trips with lack of success. Even if driverless only works for commutes in one or…

Yes, increasing availability of cars through self-driving will result in more trips, probably from underage or elderly people. But add in a service like Lyft, and the facts change. Taxi services reduce the total amount of miles driven.

When I first heard that it sounded crazy, but think of this scenario: you live near your friends, but go to work at different places. You all agree to meet up for a beer after work. If everyone takes the same taxi home from the pub, you've saved two car trips.

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