Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Lyft Self-Driving

lyft.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 176 posts

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#21

Post by rocky1138 »

elchief wrote: post #12
skywhopper wrote: post #10

To the extent this works anytime soon it will be so slow and inconsistent that it won’t be economically successful. Any driving service that works worse at night, in bad weather, or outside small well-mapped neighborhoods will not be comprehensive or reliable enough to be economically viable. Also the idea that self driving cars will end traffic is a dangerous lie to tell. Self driving cars will do nothing to reduce…

Love me that hacker ethos...

He or she is definitely right about the second point. For more detail on the thought behind the second point, read up on the Jevons Paradox if you're not already familiar with it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

I'm not convinced about the first idea, though. I think we shouldn't get confused with equating not covering all trips with lack of success. Even if driverless only works for commutes in one or two major cities I think that might be enough to call it a success, economical and societal.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#23

Post by nemothekid »

melvinmt wrote: post #17
ukulele wrote: post #3

This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will turn their current breakeven/loser business models into massive cash cows.

> This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. I believe so too, but from a slightly different angle: I believe self-driving vehicles will literally mean the end for both Uber & Lyft (and they only accelerate their fate by investing into it). To understand why: their inherent value is their ability to match human drivers with customers. They both do such a good job at it, that the switching costs between the 2…

Tesla has 10x the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve the self driving car problem than Uber? In revenue/market cap/profit Uber and Tesla are nearly equal in size.

The way I see it, Lyft and Uber are already "big corps", and there are likely several logistic concerns that give Lyft/Uber a major head start on Google despite Google's alleged software superiority. However, I don't see Google releasing a massive self driving fleet in San Francisco and simultaneously capturing significant market share overnight.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#24

Post by philwelch »

yeukhon wrote: post #8
toomuchtodo wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither Uber or Lyft will reach full autonomy before exhausting their runway, unless a miracle occurs and they solve level 5 within the next 1-2 years (caveat: it could happen, but it’s very unlikely). You can’t do hundreds of millions of dollars in raises forever without some proof of progress (or maybe you can if SoftBank is willing to pour money in for a decade). At some point, someone is going to be left holding…

Not just that, getting self-driving approved with regulators is a major challenge. Also, to achieve level 5 we need not just algorithm improvement, our physical infrastructure need to be improved as well. On intersection, two human drivers wave at each other to decide who goes first. How should the human driver communicate with the machine? What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a st…

The algorithm doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to be a significant improvement over human beings. For every fatality an algorithm causes that a human would not, there could easily be ten fatalities prevented.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#25

Post by CPLX »

bookmarkacc wrote: post #15
evv wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly this is the thinking of both companies, but I'm not convinced it makes sense. The $13B that Uber paid out last year gave them access to a scalable network of ~7M vehicles, not just the drivers. Even if they reach level 5 autonomy before they run out of runway, how long will it take to build out a network of that size?

Who ever gets self driving down first can get as many cars are they want. Two scenarios: "Let Uber drive you to work for free then pay you to use your car for the day. We'll cover the gas!" "GM is happy to partner with Lyft to be the first self diving car! GM Good. GM Hip"

Which of those two sentences is the one that's going to create seven million cars out of thin air and then maintain, manage, and insure them?

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#26

Post by mintplant »

notliketherest wrote: post #18

I will never join the "shared ownership" communist utopia. And neither will most Americans that live outside of the cities. I appreciate innovation but spare me the feel good crap.

> "shared ownership" communist utopia

If only we were heading towards such a future. Unfortunately capital and ownership seem more and more consolidated. The replacement of individual vehicle ownership with massive corporate-controled self-driving fleets would form another brick in that road.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#27

Post by amelius »

melvinmt wrote: post #17
ukulele wrote: post #3

This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will turn their current breakeven/loser business models into massive cash cows.

> This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. I believe so too, but from a slightly different angle: I believe self-driving vehicles will literally mean the end for both Uber & Lyft (and they only accelerate their fate by investing into it). To understand why: their inherent value is their ability to match human drivers with customers. They both do such a good job at it, that the switching costs between the 2…

Will there not be patent issues?

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#28

Post by bendauphinee »

nemothekid wrote: post #23
melvinmt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. I believe so too, but from a slightly different angle: I believe self-driving vehicles will literally mean the end for both Uber & Lyft (and they only accelerate their fate by investing into it). To understand why: their inherent value is their ability to match human drivers with customers. They both do such a good job at it, that the switching costs between the 2…

Tesla has 10x the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve the self driving car problem than Uber? In revenue/market cap/profit Uber and Tesla are nearly equal in size. The way I see it, Lyft and Uber are already "big corps", and there are likely several logistic concerns that give Lyft/Uber a major head start on Google despite Google's alleged software superiority. However, I don't see Google releasing a m…

Tesla already has a fleet of cars mining driving data for it, putting them way ahead of Uber.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#29

Post by xandar11 »

I'm skeptical about all this.

Hubert Horan [1] has done a great job exposing Uber's failed business model in 11 part series on NakedCapitalism ("Can Uber Ever Deliver?"). Same goes for Lyft.

When it comes to self driving cars, why should Uber or Lyft have any massive advantage over other players and what makes us think it won't turn into something like an airline industry which has been unprofitable for most of their history?

[1] http://horanaviation.com/Uber.html

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#30

Post by adjkant »

nemothekid wrote: post #23
melvinmt wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. I believe so too, but from a slightly different angle: I believe self-driving vehicles will literally mean the end for both Uber & Lyft (and they only accelerate their fate by investing into it). To understand why: their inherent value is their ability to match human drivers with customers. They both do such a good job at it, that the switching costs between the 2…

Tesla has 10x the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve the self driving car problem than Uber? In revenue/market cap/profit Uber and Tesla are nearly equal in size. The way I see it, Lyft and Uber are already "big corps", and there are likely several logistic concerns that give Lyft/Uber a major head start on Google despite Google's alleged software superiority. However, I don't see Google releasing a m…

If I'm not mistaken, Google is partnered with Lyft.

https://outline.com/qMtpFx

Post reply on HN