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Lyft Self-Driving

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Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#11

Post by JoshTriplett »

yeukhon wrote: post #8
toomuchtodo wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither Uber or Lyft will reach full autonomy before exhausting their runway, unless a miracle occurs and they solve level 5 within the next 1-2 years (caveat: it could happen, but it’s very unlikely). You can’t do hundreds of millions of dollars in raises forever without some proof of progress (or maybe you can if SoftBank is willing to pour money in for a decade). At some point, someone is going to be left holding…

Not just that, getting self-driving approved with regulators is a major challenge. Also, to achieve level 5 we need not just algorithm improvement, our physical infrastructure need to be improved as well. On intersection, two human drivers wave at each other to decide who goes first. How should the human driver communicate with the machine? What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a st…

> How should the human driver communicate with the machine?

In theory, a self-driving car could watch for hand-based turn signals, just like a human driver could, and take those into account.

In practice, what someone signals is far less interesting than what they do, and all it does is provide hints for reaction time, which 1) a computer already wins at, and 2) a computer should always leave enough time for braking/stopping/etc anyway. A human driver should never make an assumption based on someone's turn signal that would lead to a crash if they don't do what they're signaling, and neither should a computer.

> What should the machine do when there is a dog standing in the middle of a street?

Don't hit it (stopping if necessary), and listen when the human in the vehicle says "stop" (or "call animal control", or any number of other reactions). The human in the vehicle should always be in control of the high-level actions, just not the moment-to-moment ones.

> Going really extreme: in a car accident in a somewhat remote area, the driver might be able to get an injured passenger out if the passenger stuck. Now a fully autonomous car, there is only passenger.

Not sure what scenario you're getting at here. If you mean a driver and passenger in the same vehicle, the same problem exists today with an injured driver.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#12

Post by elchief »

skywhopper wrote: post #10

To the extent this works anytime soon it will be so slow and inconsistent that it won’t be economically successful. Any driving service that works worse at night, in bad weather, or outside small well-mapped neighborhoods will not be comprehensive or reliable enough to be economically viable. Also the idea that self driving cars will end traffic is a dangerous lie to tell. Self driving cars will do nothing to reduce…

Love me that hacker ethos...

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#14

Post by zitterbewegung »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #5
ukulele wrote: post #3

This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will turn their current breakeven/loser business models into massive cash cows.

Neither Uber or Lyft will reach full autonomy before exhausting their runway, unless a miracle occurs and they solve level 5 within the next 1-2 years (caveat: it could happen, but it’s very unlikely). You can’t do hundreds of millions of dollars in raises forever without some proof of progress (or maybe you can if SoftBank is willing to pour money in for a decade). At some point, someone is going to be left holding…

I don't think level 5 would be the next step for self driving automation. The biggest ground based fleet with very high autonomy is John Deere. Therefore, I would expect large commercial trucking to be the next logical target. It would cut their costs alone by changing how much their insurance policies and general efficiency. John Deere trucks almost drive themselves. So, I would see trucking be replaced first. It looks like Elon Musk wants to do that with their new set of Trucks. Since they would have the same sensors as the cars that would be a bunch of data to collect. It would also be a easier way to get proof of progress. But, at this point if you replace trucking you will get a large economic change because you are changing one of the largest source of jobs in America.

Then since you have proven that you could try acquiring Uber and or Lyft at a fire sale price because they couldn't come up with a solution in time and get their data and logistics.

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#15

Post by bookmarkacc »

evv wrote: post #9
ukulele wrote: post #3

This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will turn their current breakeven/loser business models into massive cash cows.

Clearly this is the thinking of both companies, but I'm not convinced it makes sense. The $13B that Uber paid out last year gave them access to a scalable network of ~7M vehicles, not just the drivers. Even if they reach level 5 autonomy before they run out of runway, how long will it take to build out a network of that size?

Who ever gets self driving down first can get as many cars are they want. Two scenarios:

"Let Uber drive you to work for free then pay you to use your car for the day. We'll cover the gas!"

"GM is happy to partner with Lyft to be the first self diving car! GM Good. GM Hip"

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#16

Post by [deleted] »

zitterbewegung wrote: post #14
toomuchtodo wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither Uber or Lyft will reach full autonomy before exhausting their runway, unless a miracle occurs and they solve level 5 within the next 1-2 years (caveat: it could happen, but it’s very unlikely). You can’t do hundreds of millions of dollars in raises forever without some proof of progress (or maybe you can if SoftBank is willing to pour money in for a decade). At some point, someone is going to be left holding…

I don't think level 5 would be the next step for self driving automation. The biggest ground based fleet with very high autonomy is John Deere. Therefore, I would expect large commercial trucking to be the next logical target. It would cut their costs alone by changing how much their insurance policies and general efficiency. John Deere trucks almost drive themselves. So, I would see trucking be replaced first. It lo…

[deleted]

Re: Lyft Self-Driving

#17

Post by melvinmt »

ukulele wrote: post #3

This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft. IIRC, Uber did $16B last year in revenue and paid something like $13B to drivers. Self driving vehicles will turn their current breakeven/loser business models into massive cash cows.

> This really is the endgame for both Uber and Lyft.

I believe so too, but from a slightly different angle: I believe self-driving vehicles will literally mean the end for both Uber & Lyft (and they only accelerate their fate by investing into it).

To understand why: their inherent value is their ability to match human drivers with customers. They both do such a good job at it, that the switching costs between the 2 apps are quite low (first sign of weak competitive advantage).

Now, take away the difficult problem of finding human drivers at the right place and the right time. You now have self-driving cars that make no mistakes, have no scheduling issues, do not get tired etc. It’s way easier to fullfil demand. But, you’re not the only one working on this problem. Google, Tesla, (probably Apple too) are all actively working on the same problem. And they probably have 10X the computing/engineering/cash/data resources to solve this problem.

What are Uber/Lyft left with? A fancy app with a button (which they have already proven to easily clone). Not only that, they also have to compete with the native operating systems (and future devices) that the big corps control. They don’t even own their maps!

So yes, in 2023, you will probably be able to order a Level-5 self driving vehicle to your doorstep with a wink of your half robotic eye, but it will not be Uber or Lyft.

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