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What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

nytimes.com

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Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#321

Post by mschuster91 »

lukeschlather wrote: post #278
mschuster91 wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The USA installed Cable TV, why would charging cables be harder? Because a TV coax cable is 1cm slim and can be installed very easily. Run it over the air on poles, dig it into a small trench, run it via the sewers. Whatever fits best. A 10 kV or, worse, a 1 kA-capable 3x230V line, not so much. The 10kV (or more) line has special requirements in terms of distance to other cables, a 3x230V line at that capability is…

An electric car is at least a $20k investment. If you're buying a $20k car $2k of electrical upgrades are certainly a factor in the purchasing decision, but you can at least afford to upgrade your house and work parking. And realistically the cost is likely to be lower than that, and even not it pays off in lowered fuel costs.

> but you can at least afford to upgrade your house and work parking

1) with $2k you can barely have the trench from your house to the core cable in the street digged. Better calculate 10k.

2) Why the fuck should I pay my employer to put in a charger in the garage? This will, alone for the electric work, add another 1-2k on the bill.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#322

Post by mikestew »

ajuc wrote: post #281
godman_8 wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't this just be solved with solar panels and batteries?

That's interesting. Cheap 15% efficient solar panel produces 0.75 kWh per square meter per day in "average US location" [1], whatever that is. Let's assume average parking space area is 10 square meters (it depends, but it's close [2]) - so that's 7.5 kWh per day. Average energy consumption of electric cars is 11-16 kWh/100 km [3], let's assume 10 kWh/100 km - that's 75 km range for a day of standing in sun. That's a…

Actually, why not just put the solar cells on the car and do away with the batteries

Because you might squeeze 200W worth of panels up there at best. On a sunny day you’ll get about 4 extra miles at the end of your workday. And now you can’t drive home with the sunroof open on that sunny day.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#323

Post by lazyjones »

peterwwillis wrote: post #280
lazyjones wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you think people make reasonable choices, I have some sad news. They make their own choices. It's not up to us to patronisingly decide what's reasonable for them, as long as what they do isn't destroying society itself. > And like you mentioned, it is faster than commuting by car. That's not always the case. I live in a large city (1.9 million people) with one of the best public transport systems of the world an…

We've already forced people to cut down on their lifestyle choices in multiple markets in order to help them stop killing themselves and others. Smoking. Drunk driving. Trans fats. Seat belt laws. Driving was the 12th leading cause of death, and 7th in terms of number of years of life lost, in 2011. This is a major health concern in the US. Is it worth it to kill 36,000 people a year so that they can have the "freedo…

> Driving was the 12th leading cause of death, and 7th in terms of number of years of life lost, in 2011

Including buses, right? Or do they never crash?

> Is it worth it to kill 36,000 people a year so that they can have the "freedom" of a particular "lifestyle"?

Yes, because it comes with great utility as well.

You could ask the same questions about smoking (in private), drinking alcohol, lack of exercise, flying in airplanes etc. - are you going to forbid all of these?

> Moreover, this lifestyle choice has not only negative health effects, but actually lowers local economic activity, to say nothing of worsening income inequality, upward mobility, and debt.

Yeah, right.

> the technical progress does not stop just because cars are taken off the road.

If you take away a market, you'll hamper progress.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#324

Post by icc97 »

One of the eye openers for me in this was the average ranges, 475 miles vs 190.

ICE cars have 2.5x the range of electric cars. I always assumed it was much more e.g. 800 miles vs 100 miles.

According to this graph [0] the price per kWh of batteries is halving every 5 years, so within ~6-7 years the range of electric cars will be equal to that of ICE cars.

[0]: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-looki...

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#325

Post by JoeAltmaier »

icc97 wrote: post #324

One of the eye openers for me in this was the average ranges, 475 miles vs 190. ICE cars have 2.5x the range of electric cars. I always assumed it was much more e.g. 800 miles vs 100 miles. According to this graph [0] the price per kWh of batteries is halving every 5 years, so within ~6-7 years the range of electric cars will be equal to that of ICE cars. [0]: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-lo…

Wrong metric. Its kWh / kg (not price) that matters for transportation. Until we get metal-air batteries that's not going to change much.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#326

Post by ajuc »

mikestew wrote: post #322
ajuc wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting. Cheap 15% efficient solar panel produces 0.75 kWh per square meter per day in "average US location" [1], whatever that is. Let's assume average parking space area is 10 square meters (it depends, but it's close [2]) - so that's 7.5 kWh per day. Average energy consumption of electric cars is 11-16 kWh/100 km [3], let's assume 10 kWh/100 km - that's 75 km range for a day of standing in sun. That's a…

Actually, why not just put the solar cells on the car and do away with the batteries Because you might squeeze 200W worth of panels up there at best. On a sunny day you’ll get about 4 extra miles at the end of your workday. And now you can’t drive home with the sunroof open on that sunny day.

Sorry, I meant do away with the batteries at the charging station, not the batteries in the car.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#327

Post by ghaff »

ams6110 wrote: post #293
anovikov wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that replacement doesn't need to happen quickly, cars won't get replaced sooner well... than the cars are replaced, which is, about once in 15 years. Even if market share of electric cars in dealerships is 100%. So grid requirements will evolve slowly through about 2050, not overnight - which is hardly faster than its normal renewal rate.

In my neighborhood there has been no electrical grid upgrade (other than repairs) since the 1960s (when the subdivision was built). I think your 15 year timeline for normal grid renewal is wildly optimistic at least for most established suburban areas. Also few people keep their cars for 15 years. I think 5-7 years is much more normal (though perhaps you meant the total life of the car, from original owner to the las…

The average age of cars in the US is 11.5 years. http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-average-c...

Personally, I keep cars until they're no longer reliable/economical but the average length of ownership is presumably lower and brought down by people who get a new car after a 3 year lease. Although the overall length of ownership has been increasing because of improved quality.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#328

Post by JoeAltmaier »

lazyjones wrote: post #323
peterwwillis wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've already forced people to cut down on their lifestyle choices in multiple markets in order to help them stop killing themselves and others. Smoking. Drunk driving. Trans fats. Seat belt laws. Driving was the 12th leading cause of death, and 7th in terms of number of years of life lost, in 2011. This is a major health concern in the US. Is it worth it to kill 36,000 people a year so that they can have the "freedo…

> Driving was the 12th leading cause of death, and 7th in terms of number of years of life lost, in 2011 Including buses, right? Or do they never crash? > Is it worth it to kill 36,000 people a year so that they can have the "freedom" of a particular "lifestyle"? Yes, because it comes with great utility as well. You could ask the same questions about smoking (in private), drinking alcohol, lack of exercise, flying in…

Most folks are not car-enthusiasts. Lots of us would gladly give up driving. So no, its not worth it to us. The utility is all in the time/cost. So a good public transit network would be a fine replacement for car ownership. Nothing at all like smoking, alcohol et al.

Also, busses. A bus crash favors the bus. There are rarely (compared to cars) any deaths. Its a pure public-health win.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#329

Post by Zigurd »

dalbasal wrote: post #186
tomxor wrote: post #151

Price? (for normal people) Yes there are EVs cheaper than teslas at a comparable price to ICE cars, but they don't seem to have comparable performance and utility. I can't make an economically minded decision to buy an EV today unless i'm an EV enthusiast or I have lots of money to spend on luxury. (That was Elon Musks whole point of Tesla in the first place, but the market doesn't seem to have substantially shifted…

I agreed. It's about prices Musk realized the economics and decided (best underpants plan ever) to start at the enthusiast-luxury end with the sports car. But, his crucial point was that for people already in the luxury market, he'd be able to quickly drop the enthusiast requirement. The cost of batteries that compete with a fuel tank on range does not scale with the rest of the car. Tesla now competes on a side-by-s…

Subsidies are justifiable as long as there is a need to counter-balance existing subsidization of the gasoline car ecosystem. In other words, a subsidy that one should be able to do without in a vacuum is still needed in an environment where extraction, transport, refining, etc. of fossil fuel is all more or less subsidized.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#330

Post by hodgesrm »

Swizec wrote: post #20
_greim_ wrote: post #15

> Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines. I for one will not feel the least bit sad when continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, and lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. I'll probably feel slightly nostalgic about the sound and smell of fuel-burning cars someday, but it won't inform my buying choices in the slightest.

There are transmissions other than automatic. And I agree, they’re better if you know what you’re doing. But modern high-end automatics are in fact smoother than most humans. Racecar drivers might be smoother still but even they use flappypadle automatic sequential gearboxes at the very top end of racing because even the best trained humans are just too slow. Curiously, racing electric cars use gearboxes too.

Speaking as a manual transmission fan I agree fully with your assessment about current automatics. My BMW 328d xDrive ships with an 8-speed automatic transmission that shifts at least as well as I can myself under normal road conditions. It really changes the equation for manual vs. automatic.
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