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What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

nytimes.com

271–280 of 460 posts

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#271
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Id speak to an electrical engineer before you make such wild assertions - upgrading supplies like this will be massively expensive. Also battery tech doesn't follow mores law so we aint going to get an order of magnitude change in battery tech ever

We don't need improvements at a rate that is anywhere near Moore's law. Moore's law is about doubling transistor density every two years. But for EVs to reach that kind of ranges (7-800 km for mid range price) we just need to add 50-60 percent or so one time, and I'm talking about that happening in 4-5 years. For the cheap EVs that currently have a range of around 3-400 km we need to double one time. I suggest we wil…

your going to need Nobel prize level breakthroughs to make ev's ubiquitous and that will take say 20 years from discovery to industrial production

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#272
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the last 20 years a 250+ mile range electric would have worked fine for every trip I have actually taken. (Assuming the current charging infrastructure.) Now, with slightly different habits renting an SUV 0-4 times a year is minimal effort and cost. So, yea if you do 1000+ mile trips monthly without flying then electric is not going to work, but that's unusual.

120miles is the capacity of affordable EV today. We hope it gets better.

Depends on how you run the numbers, saving 1,000+$/year on gas adds up. Maintenance costs are tricky as you do need to replace the batteries, but IC cars also have a lot of expensive repairs that are not relevant on electric cars.

It's the used electric car market that's going to be really interesting. A new battery could for example be longer range than the initial battery, and we are looking at sub 100$/kwh batteries very soon.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#273

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

Electric cars have the potential to be a key part of the solution to load management on a fully renewable grid. The vast majority of people will usually charge overnight and don't need to regularly charge at peak times. Through intelligent charger management, you can distribute the load of charging across the entire off-peak period. The UX for this can be fairly straightforward - by default you charge at the cheapest…

Even if the expensive infrastructure was put in place to allow electric car batteries to be used as a peak load reservoir, utilities would still need to maintain traditional on demand resources, such as natural gas fired power plants. Using a large number of cars is not dependable, utilities need on demand dependability. What happens if during peak consumption in the evening winter months more people stay out late (such as on New Years Eve) and most people park in places where there's no way to plug in? This would only add to overall infrastructure costs, adding a huge bidirectional grid in addition to traditional power sources that must be maintained year round for on demand use.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#274

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

Why can't this just be solved with solar panels and batteries?

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#275

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

How do street mounted charging ports cope with rain, snow and dirt? Is there a risk of electrocution?

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chevy Bolt is 240 miles..

My Ford F150 with a 36-gallon tank is around 550 miles.

A 4 door Solar car can do a 3,000++ mile range. But, surprisingly people care about other things.

https://solarteameindhoven.nl/stella-vie/

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#277

"About 65% of this electricity generation was from fossil fuels" These EV cars should be renamed "Coal Cars" so people understand the true harsh carbon footprint. Because you plug the car into a wall doesn't mean the energy is clean. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

From my view I have 2 nuclear power plants, a couple of natural gas/oil generators, a bunch of small solar plants, and a single coal fired plant in the state for our grid. No one from this part of the state is getting their power from coal in any appreciable quantity. So no, coal cars is not an apt name since not everyone is getting power from coal.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA installed Cable TV, why would charging cables be harder? The USA spends $500Billion on cars and $400 Billion on gasoline every year. A onetime $trillon upgrade isn't an outsize amount.

> The USA installed Cable TV, why would charging cables be harder? Because a TV coax cable is 1cm slim and can be installed very easily. Run it over the air on poles, dig it into a small trench, run it via the sewers. Whatever fits best. A 10 kV or, worse, a 1 kA-capable 3x230V line, not so much. The 10kV (or more) line has special requirements in terms of distance to other cables, a 3x230V line at that capability is…

An electric car is at least a $20k investment. If you're buying a $20k car $2k of electrical upgrades are certainly a factor in the purchasing decision, but you can at least afford to upgrade your house and work parking. And realistically the cost is likely to be lower than that, and even not it pays off in lowered fuel costs.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think your perspective is realistic. If you think people make reasonable choices, I have some sad news. People "prefer" a lot of things. People prefer soda and potato chips and 1000-calorie meals. People prefer to not pay taxes for health care and public education. People prefer to get pregnant and not get married. People prefer to live in suburbs away from inner cities full of people who might be different t…

> If you think people make reasonable choices, I have some sad news. They make their own choices. It's not up to us to patronisingly decide what's reasonable for them, as long as what they do isn't destroying society itself. > And like you mentioned, it is faster than commuting by car. That's not always the case. I live in a large city (1.9 million people) with one of the best public transport systems of the world an…

We've already forced people to cut down on their lifestyle choices in multiple markets in order to help them stop killing themselves and others. Smoking. Drunk driving. Trans fats. Seat belt laws.

Driving was the 12th leading cause of death, and 7th in terms of number of years of life lost, in 2011. This is a major health concern in the US. Is it worth it to kill 36,000 people a year so that they can have the "freedom" of a particular "lifestyle"? I'm sure those who own cars can rationalize it, but if we were talking about motorcycles they would probably be banned from public streets within a year.

There's certainly good to come from making existing choices less harmful, but in the face of no better choice, and the choice not getting any better in the perceivable future, removing the choice is often a good idea.

Moreover, this lifestyle choice has not only negative health effects, but actually lowers local economic activity, to say nothing of worsening income inequality, upward mobility, and debt. Even if you brought the cost down by half (which would seem incredibly odd to me, as you basically have only one or two providers of some of the essential parts needed, so why would they not charge the prices that the market already bears for these products? case in point: car prices have never gone down) you still have all the other negative aspects of cars - death, parking, traffic, pollution, inequality, etc. EV only solves one of those things. The rest have zero practical solutions.

You can also look at it this way: the technical progress does not stop just because cars are taken off the road. You can still improve batteries for a variety of uses, the existing tech is still documented and can be brought back, and when self-driving cars are stable, you can look at whether they are even necessary for auto-lifestylers with a well-funded national public transportation system. Certainly they wouldn't be needed in the numbers they are today.

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