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What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

nytimes.com

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Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#221

Post by ChrisBland »

nickpeterson wrote: post #187
slfnflctd wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt many will go out of business. At least in the U.S. the stations themselves make maybe 2-3 cents a gallon profit, which likely doesn't even begin to cover operating costs. The vast majority of their income is from the convenience store items. All but the most poorly run will pay whatever is needed to install electric chargers and stay in the game.

I think the point is that since most people will charge at night, and capacity keeps improving, eventually if evs become really common, people will have less opportunity to buy something at a gas station.

Wait until you have kids and are traveling. There is always a snack that was forgotten, a meal missed, or something left at home.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#222

Post by ctdonath »

dragonwriter wrote: post #199
dalbasal wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agreed. It's about prices Musk realized the economics and decided (best underpants plan ever) to start at the enthusiast-luxury end with the sports car. But, his crucial point was that for people already in the luxury market, he'd be able to quickly drop the enthusiast requirement. The cost of batteries that compete with a fuel tank on range does not scale with the rest of the car. Tesla now competes on a side-by-s…

> Subsidies don't make sense anymore. The innovation has been stimulated already. Debatable; subsidies can make sense for other reasons (internalizing externalities unrelated to innovation) than stimulating innovation.

The biggest aid to subsidies is "chicken-and-egg" issues: nobody wants to buy an EV if there's nowhere (other than home) to charge it, and nobody wants to install public chargers if there's nobody driving EVs. Atlanta has cleared that hurdle: lots of chargers were installed, reaching critical mass where the worst of those worries are mitigated and both sides willing to take the step to bring more cars & chargers into the system.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#223

Post by tomxor »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #188
tomxor wrote: post #151

Price? (for normal people) Yes there are EVs cheaper than teslas at a comparable price to ICE cars, but they don't seem to have comparable performance and utility. I can't make an economically minded decision to buy an EV today unless i'm an EV enthusiast or I have lots of money to spend on luxury. (That was Elon Musks whole point of Tesla in the first place, but the market doesn't seem to have substantially shifted…

The general prediction is for the total-cost-of-ownership to be lower in the next few years, and for the upfront price to be lower a few years after that. Governments and corporations are making plans based on those assumptions. I've not heard anyone credibly argue against it, though there may be quibbles about the exact timing. (And of course, there's geographical variation based on gas prices, government policy, av…

Yes i agree, it's all timing. My comment is in response to the current state of the EV market.

> The general prediction is for the total-cost-of-ownership to be lower in the next few years, and for the upfront price to be lower a few years after that.

I think upfront price is more important than most people think. The problem with the "total cost of ownership" argument is it ignores the fact that money now is worth far more than money later, effectively increasing total cost of ownership.

For a concrete worst case example consider the difference in upfront cost between ICE and EV, make it into a loan, add interest and _then_ compare it.

Personally i'm totally up for all the benefits of low maintenance though and would happily trade in an equivalent price up front. I hate the complexity and unreliability of ICE, although the excessively integrated computer systems in EVs sound like another mess to look forward to.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#224

Post by mschuster91 »

fjsolwmv wrote: post #218
mschuster91 wrote: post #213

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

The USA installed Cable TV, why would charging cables be harder? The USA spends $500Billion on cars and $400 Billion on gasoline every year. A onetime $trillon upgrade isn't an outsize amount.

> The USA installed Cable TV, why would charging cables be harder?

Because a TV coax cable is 1cm slim and can be installed very easily. Run it over the air on poles, dig it into a small trench, run it via the sewers. Whatever fits best.

A 10 kV or, worse, a 1 kA-capable 3x230V line, not so much. The 10kV (or more) line has special requirements in terms of distance to other cables, a 3x230V line at that capability is pure hell due to its sheer thickness and mass.

Also the charger station will require a transformer... which aren't tiny, and transforming 250kW produces significant heat loss. So either find some free place in earth where you can bury it, or deal with adjacent house owners to install the transformer in their basement.

> The USA spends $500Billion on cars and $400 Billion on gasoline every year. A onetime $trillon upgrade isn't an outsize amount.

Problem is, the car/gasoline spend is done by individuals on small-ish scales. A multi-trillion investment must be fronted by the state - the utility companies don't have nearly enough cash to finance this. But, as noted, the US can't get enough funds to replace Flint's potable water infrastructure or Puerto Rico's broken grid...

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#225

Post by opportune »

sandworm101 wrote: post #154
tomxor wrote: post #151

Price? (for normal people) Yes there are EVs cheaper than teslas at a comparable price to ICE cars, but they don't seem to have comparable performance and utility. I can't make an economically minded decision to buy an EV today unless i'm an EV enthusiast or I have lots of money to spend on luxury. (That was Elon Musks whole point of Tesla in the first place, but the market doesn't seem to have substantially shifted…

Every EV owner in my area seems to also own a gas car too. My landlord commutes in an EV but his wife has a normal suv for all the kid stuff. (Im in BC where long higheay trips are very much the norm.) EVs are fine if you can afford to keep a second vehicle to cover all the things they cannot do.

This is probably a reflection more of the demographic that can own EV's: wealthy people, likely older with children. Personally if there were a good EV in my price range (perhaps the model 3) I would have no need for a gas-powered car. I don't regularly need a large range and on the once-very-few-months occasion where I do need more range, I can just rent a car

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#226

Post by neospice »

fjsolwmv wrote: post #218
mschuster91 wrote: post #213

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

The USA installed Cable TV, why would charging cables be harder? The USA spends $500Billion on cars and $400 Billion on gasoline every year. A onetime $trillon upgrade isn't an outsize amount.

For reasons she just explained, like digging where there are already cables or lack of budgeting for even higher value utilities like water.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#227

Post by fjsolwmv »

dalbasal wrote: post #186
tomxor wrote: post #151

Price? (for normal people) Yes there are EVs cheaper than teslas at a comparable price to ICE cars, but they don't seem to have comparable performance and utility. I can't make an economically minded decision to buy an EV today unless i'm an EV enthusiast or I have lots of money to spend on luxury. (That was Elon Musks whole point of Tesla in the first place, but the market doesn't seem to have substantially shifted…

I agreed. It's about prices Musk realized the economics and decided (best underpants plan ever) to start at the enthusiast-luxury end with the sports car. But, his crucial point was that for people already in the luxury market, he'd be able to quickly drop the enthusiast requirement. The cost of batteries that compete with a fuel tank on range does not scale with the rest of the car. Tesla now competes on a side-by-s…

The USA massively subsidizes gasoline spending. First of all you have externalities of pollution, and the health related expense for that. Next you have a $trillion/yr in military spending dedicated to providing a secure oil supply.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#228

Post by gerbilly »

PeterisP wrote: post #107
gadders wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if there will need to be a replacement noise given to electric cars for safety reasons. Will they all have to make a fake broom-broom noise, or will some other noise be chosen? Maybe they'll be silent until they detect pedestrians or in built-up areas.

IIRC many places already have a legal requirement for replacement noise for safety reasons, usually the criteria is that it must be active below a certain speed.

UGH.

I can't tell you much about the future, but I will make one prediction.

In the future, everything will be constantly beeping.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#229

Post by davidgh »

mschuster91 wrote: post #213

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

In terms of rural areas, this will be an interesting challenge. When you drive cross country in the USA, you can expect to find gasoline reasonably close to even the most remote areas. The distance to the next gas station from anywhere in the USA is well below the range of the typical car.

However, in regards to cities, you are presenting a situation where the charging station comes to the parked car, rather than the car going to the charging station. While that would be quite convenient, if the charging times are rapidly decreased, there’s no reason car owners in cities would not be able to drive to stations to charge up, as drivers do with gas stations today.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#230

Post by fjsolwmv »

opportune wrote: post #225
sandworm101 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every EV owner in my area seems to also own a gas car too. My landlord commutes in an EV but his wife has a normal suv for all the kid stuff. (Im in BC where long higheay trips are very much the norm.) EVs are fine if you can afford to keep a second vehicle to cover all the things they cannot do.

This is probably a reflection more of the demographic that can own EV's: wealthy people, likely older with children. Personally if there were a good EV in my price range (perhaps the model 3) I would have no need for a gas-powered car. I don't regularly need a large range and on the once-very-few-months occasion where I do need more range, I can just rent a car

Suv/minivan/wagon aren't wealthy cars, they are suburban/rural family cars.
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