What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World • Hacker News Board

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#311

Post by civilitty » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:28 PM UTC

vvanders wrote: post #294

bluGill wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has only added a few chargers though, and they carefully selected the locations to be places where there are newer upgraded power lines. If electric cars become common chargers will need to be everywhere including older neighborhoods where the power lines are not up to the load.

Yes, and standard chargers can be installed anywhere you can put a clothes dryer. You only need 120kW charging if you're going to be road-tripping. In the 2+ years I've owned an EV I've never had an issue, including doing 300mi+ in a single day about once a week. Heck, when I bought my current house I didn't need to do anything since the previous owner already had a NEMA 14-50 outlet for their welder.

Yeah it's all so simple until you realize that means every house running a clothes dryer all at the same time between 5pm and whatever time in the evening everyone is done charging.

Los Angeles and parts of the Bay Area have had nearly annual brownouts for the last 20 years just from air conditioners during heat waves. How in the world do you expect that aging power grid (in the fifth/sixth largest economy no less...) to handle a clothes dryers in every house running 4+ hours a day?

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#312

Post by mercutio2 » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:28 PM UTC

ajuc wrote: post #281

godman_8 wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't this just be solved with solar panels and batteries?

That's interesting. Cheap 15% efficient solar panel produces 0.75 kWh per square meter per day in "average US location" [1], whatever that is. Let's assume average parking space area is 10 square meters (it depends, but it's close [2]) - so that's 7.5 kWh per day. Average energy consumption of electric cars is 11-16 kWh/100 km [3], let's assume 10 kWh/100 km - that's 75 km range for a day of standing in sun. That's a…

You’re ignoring conversion/storage losses when charging, which are on the order of 20%. And I think actual EVs are much closer to the less efficient end of your range (with the heat on, I barely get 3 miles / kWh on my Bolt, with no environmental controls, it’s about 4 miles / kWh, which is already the least efficient end of your range).

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#313

Post by mschuster91 » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:28 PM UTC

vvanders wrote: post #294

bluGill wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has only added a few chargers though, and they carefully selected the locations to be places where there are newer upgraded power lines. If electric cars become common chargers will need to be everywhere including older neighborhoods where the power lines are not up to the load.

Yes, and standard chargers can be installed anywhere you can put a clothes dryer. You only need 120kW charging if you're going to be road-tripping. In the 2+ years I've owned an EV I've never had an issue, including doing 300mi+ in a single day about once a week. Heck, when I bought my current house I didn't need to do anything since the previous owner already had a NEMA 14-50 outlet for their welder.

> Heck, when I bought my current house I didn't need to do anything since the previous owner already had a NEMA 14-50 outlet for their welder.

Let me guess you're countryside? Friend of mine has a relatively new house in Munich, biggest thing he has is a 3x16A CEE outlet.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#314

Post by gadders » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:29 PM UTC

gerbilly wrote: post #228

PeterisP wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC many places already have a legal requirement for replacement noise for safety reasons, usually the criteria is that it must be active below a certain speed.

UGH. I can't tell you much about the future, but I will make one prediction. In the future, everything will be constantly beeping.

I was trying to think of a noise that could replace broom-broom that would be less annoying but non-natural but couldn't think of one.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#315

Post by 1_2__4 » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:30 PM UTC

f_allwein wrote: post #113

How about: We need to shift from individual car ownership to more public transport? Sure it will be great if cars turn electric, but that does not solve issues like crowded streets etc. This would be partly addressed if cars were self driving and shared, i.e. would spend less time standing around unused. Nevertheless, I assume (=don't have data) that public transport would be much more efficient than electric cars in…

Whenever I run into an argument for something society-wide like this I do a little though experiment: Imagine the world as the argument suggests - in this case that public transportation is the norm. Now imagine I came to you and said, hey, what would you say to a personal conveyance device? Small and cheap enough to park at your residence, can carry you and all your friends/family/churchmembers/whatever as well as their cargo, and there's an existing, nationwide system (highways) they can use to literally get anywhere in the entire continental US, door-to-door, with the only requirement that you pay a little more.

Virtually everyone would dash off their shitty trains and busses in a moment and hop into cars. Even if you told them it would lead to mass congestion they'd point to people whose job it is to stuff people onto trains when they get too full. If you told them it would lead to pollution they might be swayed, but then if you told them electric cars were basically right on the horizon that would seem like an acceptable trade off.

You are arguing for a world that for most of the US would be considered objectively, demonstrably worse than the status quo. Just because you and your personal social circle lives in urban areas and doesn't need or want cars is virtually irrelevant to the national conversation because you are a tiny fraction of a minority that is not going to get any traction as self-driving and electric vehicles become the norm.

Public transportation in the US has already hit its apogee. Nobody wants it outside of dense urban cores, and the nation is largely not urban cores, nor will it be just because you wish it was.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#316

Post by civilitty » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:31 PM UTC

tomxor wrote: post #223

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The general prediction is for the total-cost-of-ownership to be lower in the next few years, and for the upfront price to be lower a few years after that. Governments and corporations are making plans based on those assumptions. I've not heard anyone credibly argue against it, though there may be quibbles about the exact timing. (And of course, there's geographical variation based on gas prices, government policy, av…

Yes i agree, it's all timing. My comment is in response to the current state of the EV market. > The general prediction is for the total-cost-of-ownership to be lower in the next few years, and for the upfront price to be lower a few years after that. I think upfront price is more important than most people think. The problem with the "total cost of ownership" argument is it ignores the fact that money now is worth f…

This fact is very easy to forget for most of us here, given the salaries in tech. When you're working multiple jobs or are underemployed and trying to support a family, each dollar is some suffering you can alleviate or a problem you can solve now and that is much more important than long term investment. You can't invest if you can't even guarantee that you can feed yourself for long enough to benefit from it.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#317

Post by mercutio2 » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:34 PM UTC

_ea1k wrote: post #283

vvanders wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These arguments don't really hold up given that Tesla has already deployed a charging network really wide. FWIW all of the chargers I've seen didn't require new transformers or lines. Heck they put in 20 spots in Centralia without even digging up the road.

You know, it is funny that I have heard so many strange hypothetical against the future of electric cars that are contradicted by the current implementation of them. Its really strange.

Many Americans are really attached to the vision of hopping in their personal vehicle with no additional transaction friction and going on long road trips.

EV charging infrastructure isn’t yet well suited to medium to long road trips, so some people discard the whole idea because they’re upset by suggesting a different distribution of friction in their lives.

Whether the actual friction is big enough to matter is hard to say. I drive outside a 100 mile radius about twice a year, and I don’t mind renting cars when I do, so it doesn’t seem especially onerous to me, but don’t underestimate people’s love for their particular car/dislike of rental cars.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#318

Post by Retric » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:43 PM UTC

mercutio2 wrote: post #299

Retric wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

250 miles is 402 km. It's well over 3 hours at highway speeds, which IMO is the limit for any reasonable day trip as a recharge while you're there means it's really 6+ hours per day of driving. Granted, this assumes you can charge at that location, but EV charging stations are plentiful.

EV chargers exist in many areas, but fast chargers are much thinner on the ground. So currently, you need to park by a non-fast-charger for 6+ hours at your destination if you want to consume your full range one way. And if all the chargers are in use/broken when you arrive, you’re pretty screwed. Broken is surprisingly common, there appears to be an agency problem with charger maintenance. I was disappointed to real…

Fair point.

I generally assume this is just growing pains, their are over 1/2 million Tesla model 3 reservations. The end point is going to be most parking spaces having a charging station operated at a slight profit. Or possibly even in road charging for absolutely unlimited range.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#319

Post by NickM » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:45 PM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #213

Biggest problem I guess will be expanding the charger network, simply due to physics. On the country side, laying cables for 1MW peak load (4 superchargers @ 250 kW) will be expensive - the grid in rural areas is enough for some farms and small villages, that's it. In cities, electric-car chargers will have to deal with political obstacles (no one wants to sacrifice free-for-all parking spots!), in addition to the el…

Tesla has already started incorporating stationary storage into some of its supercharger stations to help cut down on peak load. This is not just an act of goodwill, it actually makes economic sense for them, since it cuts down on demand charges from the utilities for high peak loads, as well as reducing the need for bigger transformers and such leading up to the station.

The electrical grid is already sized for peak usage, not average usage. Supercharger stations are also being sized for peak usage, and most of the stalls usually remain empty. Incorporating stationary storage cuts down on the costs incurred by both of these inefficiencies.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#320

Post by schiffern » Tue, Dec 19, 2017, 4:45 PM UTC

kozak wrote: post #290

secabeen wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the superchargers take AC from the grid. The equipment at the supercharger consists of a rack of AC to DC converters run in parallel. That creates the DC that is delivered to the batteries at about 400 Volts.

As far as I understand, the car asks the Level 3 charger for a certain amount of volts and amperes, and the charger delivers exactly what the car needs (being able to vary the parameters for each type of car - and yes, those Level 3 DC chargers are big, complex, and expensive). Then the current goes directly to the battery. And this is why the charging gets so fast: there are no intermediate steps. The car just needs…

>> the superchargers take AC from the grid

> the charger delivers exactly what the car needs

You're both right. A Level 3 charger does deliver the right DC voltage the car needs, and it does so using power electronics that convert regular old grid AC into DC.

Level 1 & Level 2 charging: AC grid -> cable -> onboard charger converts to 400V DC -> battery

Level 3 charging: AC grid -> offboard charger converts to 400V DC -> cable -> battery

Same number of steps, same conversion efficiency. Tesla even goes a step further and uses the same hardware, building out the (low volume) Superchargers "simply" by ganging together a dozen (high volume) on-board charger modules and stacking them inside a weatherized outdoor cabinet. This commonality maximizes their economies of scale.