Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#531

Post by speedplane » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:33 AM UTC

Gustomaximus wrote: post #530

eggpy wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm aware, I live in Phoenix :) I'm referring to this bit > I predict Waymo will price their service competitively, will ramp up to a large fleet, and that after a few months Uber / Lyft will be in trouble Waymo vehicles are far less ubiquitous than either Lyft/Uber vehicles. I expect to see a growth in Waymo cars, I just mean that I don't think we will see a huge ramp up in the number of driverless Waymo vehicles so…

> as people need time to acclimate I suspect it will be the opposite. Who-ever releases driveless taxi's first, people will clamour for the experience. People will be ordering rides for the sake of it for initial weeks/months. Then assuming the experience is safe etc, people will go by price and ride availability which driveless is sure to win. I also guess there will be some big drama about the danger, then find out…

I agree with most of your story, but I do think there will be deaths from Waymo/Tesla/Uber. It'll have a very negative impact on the tech sector, but I also think they'll learn from their mistakes and after several years they'll get better and trust will be rebuilt.

Be prepared for a five year self-driving winter that will slowly subside.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#532

Post by speedplane » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:34 AM UTC

eggpy wrote: post #82

Fricken wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cars are a familiar sight in Phoenix, they've been testing there for a couple years now. They started up an early rider program in the spring, with real people volunteering to be guinea pigs while they refine the human UI and logistics. This isn't coming out of the blue.

I'm aware, I live in Phoenix :) I'm referring to this bit > I predict Waymo will price their service competitively, will ramp up to a large fleet, and that after a few months Uber / Lyft will be in trouble Waymo vehicles are far less ubiquitous than either Lyft/Uber vehicles. I expect to see a growth in Waymo cars, I just mean that I don't think we will see a huge ramp up in the number of driverless Waymo vehicles so…

Once they get the software down, they'll need to find a way to lower the cost of those LIDARs. No one is paying $150k for a self-driving car, and it'll be difficult to recoup that investment as a taxi.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#533

Post by mcny » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:39 AM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #465

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, traffic will be worse when you compare one bus with 50 people vs. 12 self-driving cars with 4 people each. A bus is 14-15m long, whereas even a small car like the Chevy Bolt is over 4m. So parked bumper-to-bumper the cars produce >3x as much traffic, and then you add some gaps for actually driving you're up to 4x. Personally I'm very skeptical of both the claim that a) self-driving cars will see huge adoptatio…

They could build small self driving busses.

Someone said a few weeks ago that buses that run very often on the same route is just a very expensive train.

I think for self driving to realy work well, we have to ban humans from driving (and perhaps make it a felony to interfere with a self driving bus the same way we cover assault on a bus driver).

I thought it would be easier to implement self driving trains than to implement self driving cars. Who is working on that?

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#534

Post by mcny » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:42 AM UTC

wiz21c wrote: post #495

randycupertino wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. Yeah, of course self driving cars are going to make traffic way worse! Who even thinks otherwise? Suddenly you are going to have millions of disabled and homebound seniors wanting the cars to take them to do grocery shopping and errands, kids being driven around to and from from school and practice, and low income residents sleeping in their…

another climate apocalypse... 'cos even if all of these cars are electrical, they still need quite a lot of energy to be built and, after a while, destroyed...

I feel the same way but I feel a little guilty for feeling that way. It feels like saying climate change will get way worse if poor people can afford to eat beef (because cowd fart and stuff).

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#535

Post by alkonaut » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:44 AM UTC

Canada wrote: post #311

wpietri wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think crime is a big deal? If you just want to steal a car, cities are littered with them. If you want to rob people, humans are also not hard to find. And an autonomous vehicle will have excellent video recording, fast notification of police, and hard-to-disable vehicle tracking. Weather, though, is a giant issue. Chandler, AZ has 90% dry days and rarely gets more than an inch of rain per month [1], so I…

Automated cars will be better than most of us in these conditions. If you live somewhere that only snows a few days each year, you can't drive in it very well. You don't even have the right tires. Fleets will change their tires for the conditions and the automated system will be just as good at driving in adverse conditions as it would be if it drove in them all year. The sensors will see things human eyes can't. I d…

Places that only get a few days of snow are typically paralyzed by that snow (schools close etc), so the autonomous cars being paralyzed aren't really a problem in those areas.

But for a lot of northern and central europe, northern US, canada etc where people are used to changing tyres and driving for several months in snow, the autonomous cars will have a harder time.

On one hand like you say, they can see things we can't. But on the other hand, there are zero lane markers, and sensors are typically covered in snow.

For example: I have parking sensors and a rear camera on my car and those are completely covered a lot of the time in winter. I still use my car and just ignore that the parking sensors scream constantly and the rear camera shows the inside of a wad of snow. That situation would be worse for an autonomous car because those sensors aren't just nice-to-have, they are fundamental to to the operation of the car.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#536

Post by nindalf » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:48 AM UTC

Piskvorrr wrote: post #485

dheera wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People would rather pay 10x to sit in their own luxury bubble in traffic I think it has a lot less to do with the bubble factor than the fact that public transportation in the US just sucks, period. My 3-mile commute from Menlo Park to Palo Alto would take - bus: 58 minutes (2 minute walk from home to bus stop + 12 minutes average wait for ECR bus + 10 minutes on ECR + 12 minutes average wait in Palo Alto Transit C…

Typing this as I exit the world's fifth best public transit system: the exact same sentiment exists here - for a commute of 45 min by public transport, 120 min by bike, and 90 min by car (morning traffic+cruising for a spot), people still pick the car option, as it's "more comfortable". So, while the efficiency of public transport might be a concern, car-as-a-status-symbol seems to be near-universal.

I use the 3rd best in the world and I dunno, sometimes at the end of the day or end of a long-haul flight you're really tired and you don't want to jostle for a comfortable place to stand on the tube. I'd understand why people prefer getting a cab in such a situation.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#537

Post by alkonaut » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:48 AM UTC

fludlight wrote: post #256

jedberg wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My car doubles as a "everything I need when I take the kid out" storage. We always have: - diapers - changing pad - strollers - extra clothes - kids movies for the tv in the van, queued up to where we left off Sure, people in places like NYC just carry all that stuff with them when they take the kid out, but they also take the kid out less often or move to the burbs because it's a huge pain in the butt. I'd much rath…

don't forget the bulky and heavy car seat(s)

For subscription cars to be even remotely usable by anyone with small children, you have to summon a car with the correct configuration of car seats.

Having to install one just won't fly. if you can't get one with the right car seats, it's a no go for a daily use family car. On the other hand it might easily work as a second car in such families. I'll probably need to own/lease my own car for the foreseeable future, but I'd be very happy to not have to own two like I do now. And my requirements for a second car are much simpler.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#538

Post by endless1234 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:52 AM UTC

Piskvorrr wrote: post #485

dheera wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People would rather pay 10x to sit in their own luxury bubble in traffic I think it has a lot less to do with the bubble factor than the fact that public transportation in the US just sucks, period. My 3-mile commute from Menlo Park to Palo Alto would take - bus: 58 minutes (2 minute walk from home to bus stop + 12 minutes average wait for ECR bus + 10 minutes on ECR + 12 minutes average wait in Palo Alto Transit C…

Typing this as I exit the world's fifth best public transit system: the exact same sentiment exists here - for a commute of 45 min by public transport, 120 min by bike, and 90 min by car (morning traffic+cruising for a spot), people still pick the car option, as it's "more comfortable". So, while the efficiency of public transport might be a concern, car-as-a-status-symbol seems to be near-universal.

People certainly pick a car anywhere, but in areas with great public transportation the percentage who do is greatly reduced, even if the reasons why those that do remain largely the same.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#539

Post by alkonaut » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:59 AM UTC

LrnByTeach wrote: post #445

rrhd wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WHY must YOU keep CAPITALIZING RANDOM WORDS?

Sorry, I will avoid that in future ..

I recommend surrounding words with asterisks to get a less screamy emphasis.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#540

Post by endless1234 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 11:59 AM UTC

dheera wrote: post #444

seanp2k2 wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

once people are okay with sharing seats in a van That's going to be a long wait in the US! People would rather pay 10x to sit in their own luxury bubble in traffic and have everyone see how fancy their luxury bubble is vs. /gasp/ sharing it with others. Most people here don't want mass transit, they want their big truck / SUV to haul 1-4 people ("it's safer for my kid").

> People would rather pay 10x to sit in their own luxury bubble in traffic I think it has a lot less to do with the bubble factor than the fact that public transportation in the US just sucks, period. My 3-mile commute from Menlo Park to Palo Alto would take - bus: 58 minutes (2 minute walk from home to bus stop + 12 minutes average wait for ECR bus + 10 minutes on ECR + 12 minutes average wait in Palo Alto Transit C…

>train: 51 minutes (4 minutes walking from home to station + 30 minutes average wait till next train + 5 minute train ride + 12 minutes walking to work).

Do the trains really not go on a timetable there, instead arriving completely randomly?