Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#291

Post by notahacker » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:49 PM UTC

Fricken wrote: post #227

sudhirj wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think it's unlikely that Waymo will build out and operate a full fledged ride service - there's a lot of other factors to work out like scheduling, routing, supply-demand management, optimal vehicle distribution, pooling etc that they could just delegate to Lyft for. They might just build a service to the extent of push a button and a vehicle will come, and take you where you tap. That's enough to work inside a contr…

The thing is these rideshare companies: Lyft, Uber, Ola, Grab and Didi Mechagodzilla Chuxing, these companies all exploded out of nothing, they're all so young. The software they run on is complex, but not so complex that it can't be replicated. So if you're a company with the secret sauce, that being a validated autonomous OS, you would most definitely want to run the consumer facing end of the business yourself, be…

The evidence for the real profit margins being in the customer facing bit isn't strongly supported by the current market being so competitive that the companies run at VC-subsidised operating losses in most markets whilst fighting endless legal battles. If the secret sauce that changes all that is the self driving tech, the profit remains all in that. Ride locating software is relatively straightforward for a company with Alphabet's resources to develop, the business side less so, especially when its core businesses are notoriously poor at customer service and making far too much money from an existing search near-monopoly to want to risk attracting complaints about anti-competitive behaviour in new markets. And they could still can collect all that juicy data if other entities paid them enormous licence fees to run the consumer facing bit of an autonomous vehicle operation, maintain the vehicles, obtain permits in 1001 jurisdictions and design cars and ownership models to consumer preferences

Unique, regulated and highly complex software and hardware components seems far less likely to become commoditized than ridesharing apps that essentially already are, and of course viable markets for the driving tech exists even if the driver can't be dispensed with altogether.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#292

Post by uneven » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:49 PM UTC

Great discussion, but what about the more human-based issues?

Like what happens if I forget my phone in one of these ride-sharing vehicles and someone else had jumped in right after me?

What happens when someone trashes a vehicle? Are there going to be cameras in these vehicles to track bad behavior? If so, what about the privacy implications?

I don't have answers to any of these questions, but I'd be interested to see what you all think

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#293

Post by bufordsharkley » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:49 PM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #239

bitL wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you want to own a self-driving car? You'll just summon it from the nearest parking lot when needed.

My car doubles as a "everything I need when I take the kid out" storage. We always have: - diapers - changing pad - strollers - extra clothes - kids movies for the tv in the van, queued up to where we left off Sure, people in places like NYC just carry all that stuff with them when they take the kid out, but they also take the kid out less often or move to the burbs because it's a huge pain in the butt. I'd much rath…

For non-personally-owned self-driving cars to catch on, you'd probably have to see an expansion of convenient storage lockers near parking lots.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#294

Post by WalterSear » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:49 PM UTC

notahacker wrote: post #280

sangnoir wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's an edge case: If an operator redesigns the interior of their fleet with large, comfortable reclining seats, long distance travel by road will become much more competitive with business-/first-class air travel. Boarding at my house and being dropped off at my destination and sleeping all the way (or working if you're a telecommuter, or watching movies) is quite appealing to me - the lack of TSA and/…

I've been on long distance buses with large, comfortable reclining seats and convenient pickup/dropoff points for 8 hour plus journeys more than most sane people I assure you it's not the human driver which means that most people strongly prefer other methods of transport.

I don't think the comparison is as apt as, for instance, a 1st class intercontinental seat on Singapore airlines.

https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/images/navigation/flying-...

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#295

Post by rwmj » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:50 PM UTC

asteli wrote: post #288

rwmj wrote: post #121

Throws money at screen Having said that I do love seeing these wide, straight American roads and wonder how well this will do on the tiny (often single track) winding country roads around here.

staying on the road isn't the hard part. all that can be mapped, even in areas with poor road markings. dealing with other road users and abusers is far harder

Indeed. A day doesn't go by when I don't see drivers looking at their mobile phones, vans parked in the road on a blind bend, tractors which are wider than a single lane (or people who just think that because it's a country road they "should" straddle the middle of the road) etc.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#296

Post by jvolkman » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:50 PM UTC

organsnyder wrote: post #286

jvolkman wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's more than that. The safety report they released recently indicates the vehicles also have redundant power systems, redundant braking systems, redundant steering systems, etc. I doubt that the stock configurations require as much redundancy.

Ah, that could be. Though could that be talking about redundant processing (i.e. two dependent algorithms making the same decision) rather than duplicate hardware?

Don't think so. You can read the descriptions on page 17 of the report: https://storage.googleapis.com/sdc-prod/v1/safety-report/way...

For example: The steering system features a redundant drive motor system with independent controllers and separate power supplies. Either one can manage steering in the case that a failure occurs in the other

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#297

Post by titzer » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:51 PM UTC

uneven wrote: post #292

Great discussion, but what about the more human-based issues? Like what happens if I forget my phone in one of these ride-sharing vehicles and someone else had jumped in right after me? What happens when someone trashes a vehicle? Are there going to be cameras in these vehicles to track bad behavior? If so, what about the privacy implications? I don't have answers to any of these questions, but I'd be interested to s…

> Are there going to be cameras in these vehicles to track bad behavior?

I don't think you really need that. You just need a feature to "send back" a vehicle that has been damaged or soiled and it should be easy for the provider to attribute the damage to a previous user.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#298

Post by wpietri » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:51 PM UTC

falcolas wrote: post #271

LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

With the following caveat, I'll bite: "Not available in adverse weather conditions or outside service zones". Said service zones wouldn't include anyplace where increased crime is a concern. The cars would also probably have to be inspected and possibly cleaned between each use... I'm also uncertain the tech is advancing quickly enough to justify a 5 year timeline. Not to mention ensuring society and the government i…

Why do you think crime is a big deal?

If you just want to steal a car, cities are littered with them. If you want to rob people, humans are also not hard to find. And an autonomous vehicle will have excellent video recording, fast notification of police, and hard-to-disable vehicle tracking.

Weather, though, is a giant issue. Chandler, AZ has 90% dry days and rarely gets more than an inch of rain per month [1], so I think it's no coincidence they've started there. As a Michigander, I grew up driving in all sorts of shitty weather, so it's astonishing to watch San Francisco drivers fall apart in heavy rain. I expect auto-automobiles to be no better.

[1] https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/arizona/united-states/...

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#299

Post by sangnoir » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:52 PM UTC

notahacker wrote: post #280

sangnoir wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's an edge case: If an operator redesigns the interior of their fleet with large, comfortable reclining seats, long distance travel by road will become much more competitive with business-/first-class air travel. Boarding at my house and being dropped off at my destination and sleeping all the way (or working if you're a telecommuter, or watching movies) is quite appealing to me - the lack of TSA and/…

I've been on long distance buses with large, comfortable reclining seats and convenient pickup/dropoff points for 8 hour plus journeys more than most sane people I assure you it's not the human driver which means that most people strongly prefer other methods of transport.

A closer analogy (rather than a bus) would be human-driven limousine: not bunched up with strangers, door-to-door service (not just "convenient" location). Even that considered, I am yet to encounter a limousine designed for long-distance travel (but that might just be because I'm not rich). Also, the human driver and the associated control interfaces takes up interior space which would have been put to other uses.

It's not about the driver for me - I would hire such human-driven limousine today (for a reasonable cost). I think the costs of finding the driver a place to stay and planning their trips in order for the driver to get home frequently makes such a service impossible today. This problem would go away if the car was self-driven - the service becomes scalable.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#300

Post by potatolicious » Tue, Nov 07, 2017, 9:53 PM UTC

sudhirj wrote: post #168

zjaffee wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car pool lanes will likely be a big reason people choose to pool in autonomous cars. I imagine that self driving cars will make traffic much worse, and we will see a movement where cities create more and more HOV lanes to reduce traffic in such situations.

Over a short term, yes, but there's likely to be work done on co-operation + communication standards between autocars. If a cars at an intersection are all auto, a quick Raft election can decide who goes first, so they'll all get to go through much faster. Broadcasting intention can also help with overtaking, trailing, etc. And if road train standards get built in they can all run much faster and more efficiently on…

> "If a cars at an intersection are all auto"

... and the roadway is not used/intersected by cyclists, pedestrians, or anything that isn't an autonomous vehicle...

I think this stuff is super promising, but it alarms me how often we forget that streets are used by more than motor vehicles. The fact that roads are used by a mixture of users is a feature, not a bug.