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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#271

Post by falcolas »

LrnByTeach wrote: post #214
a9a wrote: post #148

It will be interesting to see how Lyft's partnership with Waymo evolves given this tech announcement and Waymo's acknowledgment that they plan to offer their own ridesharing service. Lyft's approach to self-driving partnerships in general seems to rest on the assumption that self-driving providers will catch up to each other before any of them can fully handle everything a human driver can do. If this assumption is c…

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

With the following caveat, I'll bite: "Not available in adverse weather conditions or outside service zones". Said service zones wouldn't include anyplace where increased crime is a concern.

The cars would also probably have to be inspected and possibly cleaned between each use...

I'm also uncertain the tech is advancing quickly enough to justify a 5 year timeline. Not to mention ensuring society and the government is onboard with this. It would suck to be stuck in an automated car by a picket line of displaced drivers.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#272

Post by Game_Ender »

3pt14159 wrote: post #208
Animats wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo does seem to be ahead technically. They've been working on the hard cases for years, while the other guys are still struggling. They are trying hard to get good situational awareness. One of the few neutral measures we have are CA DMV's disconnect and accident reports, and in those, Waymo has been consistently ahead. Waymo is hooked up with FCA (Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles), of all things. Uber is "fake it 'til y…

One question I can't seem to find a good answer for is this: Why doesn't the self-driving tech hand off control to a remote driver if the internet connection is good enough and there is enough warning? Even with a couple seconds notice a primed human could take the wheel and do the right thing when the sensors aren't making sense.

Thought experiment: If you had such a system and it was good enough that people would not notice it’s use, would you advertise that? I would look carefully at the wording of these companies. Such a system would let you paper over all sorts of issues and claim zero “driver interventions”...

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#273

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ghaff wrote: post #236
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using china as an example, taxis (and Uber equivalents) are much cheaper there to use than the USA while non labor costs (gas and cars) are actually more expensive than in the states. So I would guess labor is a large part of the cost, or it doesn’t really make sense. Maybe not 10x cheaper, but half as much is probably reasonable.

50% of rideshare rates with a driver seems like a very reasonable ballpark. There are reasons it might be somewhat more or less but it's probably pretty close. Which means you probably change car ownership outside of dense areas where it's already marginal a lot less than many assume. I might use my own car less at those rates but I'd absolutely still own one for a variety of reasons.

In china I didn’t own a car, it was about 2X the cost to buy one (for what I wanted() vs. the USA, plus parking was a PITA in a city like Beijing where it was often illegal (parking in the second lane each way of a 4 lane street). In many places, car ownership and use fees are a lot more than the USA, but somehow taxis are very reasonable as alternatives.

Having move back, I now own a car that I have to fill up with gas once every couple of months (I don’t drive it much, but with a baby uber isn’t an option)

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#274

Post by TillE »

Bartweiss wrote: post #151
ersiees wrote: post #146

I was really excited, until I read that the change they made is not to have no employee in the car at all. They moved the safety employee from the front to the back.

Less dramatic, but it makes a lot of sense. If nothing else, a human presence is probably still useful for common cases like a human rear-ending the car. I haven't really seen anyone with a plan for handling all the non-driving issues cars regularly face.

Yeah good point. Until they have the full infrastructure set up for handling exceptional situations remotely, it's probably a lot easier to have someone there at all times just in case.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#275

Post by wlll »

bamboozled wrote: post #252
aecs99 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting question. Like you, I too believe that a large population may prefer Lyft/Uber type services instead of dealing with the concerns of owning one (e.g., parking, requiring space for parking, insurance, time spent in fueling, maintenance, etc.). However, I tend to think that there still may be a decent size of population who'd prefer owning. Others mentioned the convenience of using cars for storage, being r…

Don’t forget off-road or very remote driving and camper vans.

Also, wet dogs, muddy shoes and boots, transporting stuff that makes the car smell etc. etc.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#276

Post by bmsleight_ »

aidenn0 wrote: post #232
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

Camper-van, pick-me up at the office (London) on Friday evening, by Saturday morning we in the highlands of Scotland.

It sounds silly - but the more automation the more I want to spend within my fictional camper-van. Soccer away match - no problem. Trip to the beach again, overnight.

It is like an sleeper train - only more comfortable and spacious, as it would be my families camper-van.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#277

Post by sangnoir »

r00fus wrote: post #222
jamesjyu wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Upcoming Uber advertisement: "You don't even need a car! Work from home and drive from your mobile phone."

You could be Uber-driving while Uber-riding...

Want to double your income? Uber-drive* while you drive your Uber.

*at stop lights.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#278

Post by the_cat_kittles »

aidenn0 wrote: post #232
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

i never thought about this: you can just fill a car with a bunch of stuff and send it somewhere. makes mailing heavy stuff potentially dumb in some cases, depending on how things price out. also, maybe moving cross country gets easier for the same reason.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#279

Post by glangdale »

jedberg wrote: post #239
bitL wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you want to own a self-driving car? You'll just summon it from the nearest parking lot when needed.

My car doubles as a "everything I need when I take the kid out" storage. We always have: - diapers - changing pad - strollers - extra clothes - kids movies for the tv in the van, queued up to where we left off Sure, people in places like NYC just carry all that stuff with them when they take the kid out, but they also take the kid out less often or move to the burbs because it's a huge pain in the butt. I'd much rath…

... and someone else mentioned the car seat, too. Always fun!

However: unless you are planning a very large family, this is a transitory phase. I noted as my kids matured the amount of crap you have to lug around drops precipitously. I can't see that many people needing to carry the stuff on the bulky end of this for years and years. I carried my kids sequentially in a back-pack (3 years separation, so #1 was walking everywhere when #2 came along) and managed to fit all the above (aside from movies) into the back pocket of the kid backpack (strongly recommended for the transition to walking, incidentally, as a backpack is almost zero hassle when empty, while a stroller is just as hard to push empty as full).

But back on topic: you could lease a car/van for the Peak Kid bit of your life and still save money.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#280

Post by notahacker »

sangnoir wrote: post #268
jedrek wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree that it's impossible to make predictions, your example is a massive edge case.

I don't think it's an edge case: If an operator redesigns the interior of their fleet with large, comfortable reclining seats, long distance travel by road will become much more competitive with business-/first-class air travel. Boarding at my house and being dropped off at my destination and sleeping all the way (or working if you're a telecommuter, or watching movies) is quite appealing to me - the lack of TSA and/…

I've been on long distance buses with large, comfortable reclining seats and convenient pickup/dropoff points for 8 hour plus journeys more than most sane people

I assure you it's not the human driver which means that most people strongly prefer other methods of transport.

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