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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#521

Post by pjc50 »

aidenn0 wrote: post #232
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

The logical conclusion of this may be the self-driving RV as "tiny home". Especially given how expensive property prices are. Laws currently prevent you in some areas from "living in your car", but if you're exempt from that so long as the car is moving? Well then.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#522

Post by speedplane »

pjc50 wrote: post #521
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

The logical conclusion of this may be the self-driving RV as "tiny home". Especially given how expensive property prices are. Laws currently prevent you in some areas from "living in your car", but if you're exempt from that so long as the car is moving? Well then.

Ha... If we can take that idea into a further extreme, we'll end up with Snow Piercer.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#523

Post by alkonaut »

rsync wrote: post #413
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

"If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below." I think you drastically underestimate the possible values of pessimism. In my opinion, truly autonomous vehicles driving in arbitrary, real world, public roads in my lifetime sounds optimistic ...

I think it might be possible that the subscription fleets that already exist in many cities can be used to "summon" (like teslas can be summoned) a few blocks ro a few miles, autonomously, because they know the area.

That makes these subscriptions much more convenient than having to pick up/drop off a share car in a fixed spot.

The user uses the car for a while in semi-autonomous mode (car can drive 90, 95 or 99% with user supervision) and then the user can return it by letting it drive back. If the car is stuck it just stops and a driver from the fleet company comes along to drive it.

I think a scenario like that could be viable in small scale for some metropolitan areas (good climate, limited user base etc) within 5 years.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#524

Post by gambiting »

jacksmith21006 wrote: post #364
ghaff wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can't own (or lease, but that's just a financing variant) a self-driving car, the concept is going to be basically a non-starter. People who already take taxis/Uber/Lyft/etc. will appreciate a 50% cut or so in rates but anyone else who already drives a car daily will just pass for most of the same reasons they own a car today.

Do not agree. Habits will change as it will be cheap. My kids already are very, very comfortable using Uber where me and my wife are like let's take our car.

It would be far cheaper for me to take Uber to work every single day than pay for my car + fuel + maintenance + insurance. Like....half of what I pay a month if not more. Yet having the car for my own personal use whenever I want is still worth the premium IMHO.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#525

Post by gambiting »

eggpy wrote: post #45
hardtke wrote: post #26

What happens if these cars get in a situation where there is no legal way to move? For instance, the other day I was driving down the street and it was closed because of a Farmers market. Will they just sit there for hours? In gridlock, there is often no way to move without "blocking the box."

Presumably Waymo has this traffic data by leveraging existing Android monitoring technology and can reroute accordingly. If you've ever used Google Maps for directions and come up to an accident or something you know it will suggest a better route as it becomes available. These cars will likely not get themselves into high-congestion areas with no way out simply because they already know about the high congestion are…

>> If you've ever used Google Maps for directions and come up to an accident or something you know it will suggest a better route as it becomes available.

So, extremely poorly then? Maybe it's different in the US but Google maps is extremely poor around EU, with roads leading nowhere, zero knowledge about no-turn signs and one-way roads. Traffic only works in largest cities and even then poorly. My TomTom dedicated satnav beats it by every measure possible.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#526

Post by netheril96 »

shykes wrote: post #462
a9a wrote: post #148

It will be interesting to see how Lyft's partnership with Waymo evolves given this tech announcement and Waymo's acknowledgment that they plan to offer their own ridesharing service. Lyft's approach to self-driving partnerships in general seems to rest on the assumption that self-driving providers will catch up to each other before any of them can fully handle everything a human driver can do. If this assumption is c…

I think the China/US rivalry will guarantee that there will always be at the very least one major rival to Waymo with global ambitions.

If history is to repeat itself, Waymo will dominate on the whole planet excluding China, where Chinese self driving companies prosper but cannot reach outside.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#527

Post by speedplane »

gambiting wrote: post #525
eggpy wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably Waymo has this traffic data by leveraging existing Android monitoring technology and can reroute accordingly. If you've ever used Google Maps for directions and come up to an accident or something you know it will suggest a better route as it becomes available. These cars will likely not get themselves into high-congestion areas with no way out simply because they already know about the high congestion are…

>> If you've ever used Google Maps for directions and come up to an accident or something you know it will suggest a better route as it becomes available. So, extremely poorly then? Maybe it's different in the US but Google maps is extremely poor around EU, with roads leading nowhere, zero knowledge about no-turn signs and one-way roads. Traffic only works in largest cities and even then poorly. My TomTom dedicated s…

Perhaps Google Maps is poor in the EU, but it's clear that Google does know how to make good maps, as they do elsewhere. If that's necessary for autonomous vehicles, that's what they'll do.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#528

Post by speedplane »

juliesulti wrote: post #71
eggpy wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably Waymo has this traffic data by leveraging existing Android monitoring technology and can reroute accordingly. If you've ever used Google Maps for directions and come up to an accident or something you know it will suggest a better route as it becomes available. These cars will likely not get themselves into high-congestion areas with no way out simply because they already know about the high congestion are…

There are anecdotes of Google Maps causing traffic, routing people to dead ends, etc. There was the incident where Google Maps routed a lot of interstate drivers down a dirt road serving a prison. Last week in Oakland, Google routed drivers away from traffic on I-880, onto Embarcadero where the bridge is closed for construction. Last week, Google refused to route me over the open, clear Sonora Pass between Modesto an…

> I'm sure this Waymo project does not take the perfection of Google Maps data as a given.

Agreed, it would be nuts if they did.

Construction happens all the time. One day there is a bridge, the next day there isn't. Roads get destroyed by storms. I'm sure they have some way of detecting that the map doesn't match reality and have a variety of ways of dealing with that.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#529

Post by speedplane »

giosch wrote: post #499
dx034 wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also local human overrides. I as a passenger want to determine the route to take. Maybe I just don't like the recommended route, maybe I know that it won't work. There's no reason why the passenger shouldn't be able to determine the route.

Only if you own the car. If you are using uber you cannot choose the route...

Yes, actually, you can ask the driver to take another route. Uber may just change the price.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#530

Post by Gustomaximus »

eggpy wrote: post #82
Fricken wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cars are a familiar sight in Phoenix, they've been testing there for a couple years now. They started up an early rider program in the spring, with real people volunteering to be guinea pigs while they refine the human UI and logistics. This isn't coming out of the blue.

I'm aware, I live in Phoenix :) I'm referring to this bit > I predict Waymo will price their service competitively, will ramp up to a large fleet, and that after a few months Uber / Lyft will be in trouble Waymo vehicles are far less ubiquitous than either Lyft/Uber vehicles. I expect to see a growth in Waymo cars, I just mean that I don't think we will see a huge ramp up in the number of driverless Waymo vehicles so…

> as people need time to acclimate

I suspect it will be the opposite. Who-ever releases driveless taxi's first, people will clamour for the experience. People will be ordering rides for the sake of it for initial weeks/months. Then assuming the experience is safe etc, people will go by price and ride availability which driveless is sure to win.

I also guess there will be some big drama about the danger, then find out it wasn't the cars fault. E.g Massive headline about someone dying in a Waymo car and then we find out they decided to climb out the window while moving or something like that.

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