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Tesla’s New Car Smell

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Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#71

Post by [deleted] »

Animats wrote: post #70
toomuchtodo wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” The press is up and running: https://www.instagram.com/p/BaInXGBg9G7/ Based on a 3.7 second cycle time, they can bang out 5,837,837 body panels per year (assuming some math an automotive engineer on /r/teslamotors provided that takes into account downtime and typical automotive labor scheduling: 5…

That's what stamping looks like. Here's Subaru banging out car doors.[1] About the same cycle time, using automated loading and unloading. [1] https://youtu.be/r9byGJtbCws?t=63

[deleted]

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#72

Post by rtpg »

dilemma wrote: post #45
rtpg wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I'm saying isn't that the production issues get solved. What I'm saying is that if you have enough money, delays aren't as much of an issue in itself. You can wait things out. Valve surely has a lot of developement issues leading to delays, but they still got Half Life 2 out and made a bunch of money off of it.

No, you did say that money solves production issues.

to clarify, what I meant by "issue" is production delays. There are underlying issues for sure, and those won't be solved just with money.

But many side effects of delays are mitigated by throwing money at it. And spending money is usually an easy option, if you have a lot of it.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#73

Post by ucaetano »

rtpg wrote: post #16
carlivar wrote: post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

Don't the BMWs of the world have this tech integrated into their cars too? I get Tesla's cars are really good, but my understanding was that it wasn't "miles ahead".

Yes, actually, most of the "Autopilot" features have been available in production cars for over a decade. Tesla is really late to this game, although people can't seem to realize it because of the distortion field.

And that's before we get into disengagements per 1000 miles, where Tesla trails most of the industry by far.

No wonder Musk tries to demonize AI. Self-driving is a race to the bottom, with its development slashing car sales by an order of magnitude. That would be bad for an established, mature, car maker, but would be crushing for a company relying purely on future growth.

Not only Tesla is behind most in self-driving, it is the most exposed to the downsides of it.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#74

Post by tgtweak »

tgtweak wrote: post #52
ojm wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand Reminds me of some other automotive companies when a new car is launched..

Good to see "do things that don't scale" being applied to the very definition of things that need to scale.

I feel the need to correct the record. You do the things that don't scale in order to better realize/appreciate where to put the effort to fix them. Tesla has the equivalent of an mvp/poc production line. You'd be kidding yourself if you think they're not improving it every minute. And you know the improvements they're making are the ones with the biggest impact, in that exact order of priority.

If you try to make the perfect assembly line before you deliver 1 car, you'll be making huge over-engineering expenditures and costly assumptions which result in even greater net production losses.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#75

Post by gumby »

csours wrote: post #23

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor. People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon. But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles. I believe Elon is truly a visionary. Now for the funny things: 1. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do t…

> You cannot inspect your way to quality.

I have to emphasize the sentence you ended your comment with. Anybody who has worked in volume production has heard this phrase too many times to count.

People who never learned the difference between QC and QA never seem to understand this phrase either. Doesn't mean they are dumb, but does mean they don't even understand the scope of what they don't know.

Another common misunderstanding is the dynamics of the learning curve. Costs of high volume production drop precipitously (and quality typically increases proportionally as well) but incrementally as volume goes up. A common misunderstanding is that that means you work incrementally to get better. But that is true for systems set up from the start as high volume systems. Tesla the company has been at it for almost 15 years (Musk has been there for 13 of them) and still appears to be in low volume manufacturing mode.

It's not super surprising when you consider that Space X makes small volume, bespoke hardware. A big backend system is still a one-off even if you run huge volume through it. Cars, phones, etc are a completely different game.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#76

Post by r00fus »

ucaetano wrote: post #73
rtpg wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't the BMWs of the world have this tech integrated into their cars too? I get Tesla's cars are really good, but my understanding was that it wasn't "miles ahead".

Yes, actually, most of the "Autopilot" features have been available in production cars for over a decade. Tesla is really late to this game, although people can't seem to realize it because of the distortion field. And that's before we get into disengagements per 1000 miles, where Tesla trails most of the industry by far. No wonder Musk tries to demonize AI. Self-driving is a race to the bottom, with its development…

> Self-driving is a race to the bottom, with its development slashing car sales by an order of magnitude.

This isn't bad if you're the only one who can ship self-driving cars with acceptable quality and volume as you'd be disrupting the rest of the industry to fuel massive growth.

Steve Jobs was also famous for denouncing something right up until Apple had "the best on the market" of that same thing. It seems like standard CEO playbook.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#77

Post by r00fus »

IcePenguino wrote: post #17
carlivar wrote: post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

I have to agree completely. Autopilot is miles ahead. While I'm waiting for my 3 preorder, I took a test drive a Model S. I haven't felt as moved by a technology like Autopilot since I first swiped on the first iPhone. Coincidentally, we're in the market for a 2018 Odyssey as our family car too.

Did you consider (for your family car) a Chrysler Pacifica? It's a PHEV minivan with 33mi electric range. Sure not fully EV, but close enough for grocery grabbing and some commutes.

Our 2012 Sienna is doing well and doesn't do too many miles, or I'd have considered upgrading.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#78

Post by nostalgiac »

dilemma wrote: post #11
LAMike wrote: post #8

"If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspect, correct, and quickly adjust their own production process." Isn't one of the advantages of having a minimal, electric vehicle that there are fewer moving parts? Telsa is in a interesting position as a software/car maker. There production line is like an algorithm they are adjusting on the fly, and it's obviously g…

The world's leading assembler of cars, Toyota, doesn't use artificial intelligence but human intelligence to make its processes run smooth and continuously improve them. A large human component is necessary in production and this idea of using software and full automation to optimize it is a pipedream.

Isn't a pipedream basically exactly what Elon is always trying to produce?

Why is this a bad thing and why isn't software/full automation achievable?

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#79

Post by probe »

tgtweak wrote: post #67
KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think Tesla has the best system? The managers in charge of autopilot keep quitting. The media says they are quitting because Elon is making deceptive claims about autopilot. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

Also they've disabled autopilot for the time being. It's an interesting time for Tesla, they feel like the automotive equivalent of AMD - David keeping Goliath honest. How many automotive companies saw Tesla become an actual disruptive threat and then spent tens of billions on self driving and electrification? Tesla isn't going to compete with Honda or Toyota by copying their model (or even their manufacturing proces…

A lot of this is confirmation bias at its finest. Not saying you're wrong, but I think it's naive to assume Tesla has some "secret sauce" - there are equally smart and competent people at Tesla competitors. I would bet that the risk and decision making process may be different (incumbents may want higher probability of success to make a bet, while Musk's NPV analysis is different), but again it's naive to assume they don't understand at all what is or isn't possible in manufacturing

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#80

Post by prostoalex »

Hypx wrote: post #13

> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…

Toyota’s recalls are expensive, as they involve a network of dealers who need to be paid for providing the repair and maintenance.

Tesla’s vertical integration of service centers has an interesting side effect - recalls and repairs are pretty cheap, as the costs of service centers and loaner vehicles they give out are fixed and have been borne already.

I wonder if that makes the company more dismissive of potential issues.

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