Tesla’s New Car Smell • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#21

Post by muglug » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:07 AM UTC

carlivar wrote: post #18

Hypx wrote: post #13

> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

Tesla has been designing and producing road-worthy vehicles for 14 years. If they're in startup-hair-on-fire mode right now, something is very wrong.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#22

Post by siavosh » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:07 AM UTC

IcePenguino wrote: post #17

carlivar wrote: post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

I have to agree completely. Autopilot is miles ahead. While I'm waiting for my 3 preorder, I took a test drive a Model S. I haven't felt as moved by a technology like Autopilot since I first swiped on the first iPhone. Coincidentally, we're in the market for a 2018 Odyssey as our family car too.

Off topic - but curious of why Odyssey > Sienna? ...as I'm having a hard time deciding.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#23

Post by csours » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:08 AM UTC

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor.

People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon.

But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles.

I believe Elon is truly a visionary.

Now for the funny things:

1. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do this you end up with a 1980's Jaguar - lovely and fast and fun, but unreliable, and overly expensive, and your competition will eat your lunch.

2. Tesla shouldn't be graded on cars or car production, they are an X company (X= software, technology, etc): Whatever kind of company you think Tesla is, right now they make cars and that's all you can grade them on right now. If you want to make a bet about the future, go for it, but realize that it is a bet.

3. Automation will solve this: GM spent about $60 Billion on advanced automation in the 1980's because they could not believe that Toyota was building cars at the cost and quality with human labor (this is a gross simplification). 10-15 years later, GM basically adopted the Toyota Production System. It may be possible to build quality cars in a cost effective manner with near 100% automation, but I do not believe it is possible to build them BECAUSE OF automation. You must have a good quality process first. Elon's previous comments about having a bed near the end of the production line rings alarm bells for anyone who has been in manufacturing. You cannot inspect your way to quality.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#24

Post by csours » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:09 AM UTC

carlivar wrote: post #18

Hypx wrote: post #13

> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

Every large, successful automotive manufacturer uses some flavor of TPS.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#25

Post by robotresearcher » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:12 AM UTC

IcePenguino wrote: post #17

carlivar wrote: post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

I have to agree completely. Autopilot is miles ahead. While I'm waiting for my 3 preorder, I took a test drive a Model S. I haven't felt as moved by a technology like Autopilot since I first swiped on the first iPhone. Coincidentally, we're in the market for a 2018 Odyssey as our family car too.

Did you test a Mercedes and Audi as well?

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#26

Post by QAPereo » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:12 AM UTC

I just kept thinking, “well yeah, but the optimists might be right, and Musk has done amazing things before.” Then...

Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.

That reeks of fundamental issues at odds with “It is important to emphasize that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply chain. We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.”

Maybe mass production is that one step too far.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#27

Post by Hypx » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:12 AM UTC

carlivar wrote: post #18

Hypx wrote: post #13

> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

It's pretty self-evident if you read the next two paragraphs:

> (Ironically, the Fremont plant is prominently featured in “The Machine…” as the locus of the ultimately failed GM-Toyota cooperation.)

> As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved smoothly. I was so shocked by the contrast that I imprudently voiced my concern. That didn’t go over well with my fellow Tesla owners. I was a killjoy, I was calling their choice into question.

So we have an actual first-hand description of the differences between Tesla's and Toyota/Honda's understanding of lean manufacturing. Even in the very same building in fact. And I'm pretty sure the author is describing the production of Model S or X, not the new Model 3. Since those cars have been in production for a while now, there's no way they wouldn't have implemented something like the lean manufacturing system unless they simply don't understand it.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#28

Post by carlivar » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:14 AM UTC

muglug wrote: post #21

carlivar wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

Tesla has been designing and producing road-worthy vehicles for 14 years. If they're in startup-hair-on-fire mode right now, something is very wrong.

Which new automaker of the past 40 years do you compare them to as far as measuring what is wrong?

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#29

Post by majormajor » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:14 AM UTC

carlivar wrote: post #18

Hypx wrote: post #13

> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

If they're still in hair on fire mode after having many years and multiple previous models to practice on before the Model 3, that's the part that makes me think they don't grasp it.

Elon's software background, plus SpaceX which is fundamentally a very different kind of manufacturing, probably works against him here. Software startups essentially hate process (for often-good reasons) and view process as mostly a thing you put into place out of necessity after you've successfully navigated the growth phase. The stories from their production floor are the single most worrying thing that's come out about Tesla - bad vendor quality control, overengineering a la the Model X, all those other things are comparatively simple to grasp, learn from, and overcome. Why wasn't "learn how to mass-manufacture reliably" a much earlier goal?

Just because a system took 27 years to develop doesn't mean it takes 27 years to learn.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#30

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Oct 16, 2017, 5:14 AM UTC

dilemma wrote: post #11

LAMike wrote: post #8

"If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspect, correct, and quickly adjust their own production process." Isn't one of the advantages of having a minimal, electric vehicle that there are fewer moving parts? Telsa is in a interesting position as a software/car maker. There production line is like an algorithm they are adjusting on the fly, and it's obviously g…

The world's leading assembler of cars, Toyota, doesn't use artificial intelligence but human intelligence to make its processes run smooth and continuously improve them. A large human component is necessary in production and this idea of using software and full automation to optimize it is a pipedream.

[deleted]